Trump Wields Tariffs as a Diplomatic Crowbar — Allies and Adversaries Left Guessing
From threatening Canada over recognizing Palestine to pressuring India on Russian oil, Trump’s ever-shifting tariff threats blur red lines and unsettle allies and adversaries alike.
Donald Trump has found his new favorite foreign policy weapon: the tariff. Overnight, the president threatened fresh tariffs on Canada after Ottawa announced plans to formally recognize Palestine as a state—a move already made by nearly three-quarters of UN member states. Canada’s decision, which comes with carefully crafted conditions and funding aimed at strengthening democratic institutions within the Palestinian Authority, was widely seen as measured and overdue. But Trump’s reaction has injected fresh instability into Canada’s economy and pushed Washington–Ottawa relations to yet another low point.
It’s not just Canada feeling the sting. Trump has allegedly used tariff threats to pressure Cambodia and Thailand into settling a border dispute and agreeing to a ceasefire. He’s recently rattled India for its continued purchases of Russian oil—trade that props up Moscow’s war machine—and even hinted at secondary sanctions against allies of Russia, including China. Now, with Kyiv reeling from another massive overnight drone and rocket attack that killed eight and injured dozens, the question is whether Trump will accelerate punishing tariffs on countries buying Russian crude and other commodities.
As I told GB News yesterday, Trump’s diplomacy is less about clear red lines and more about moving goalposts. Allies and adversaries alike face a foreign policy that is unpredictable, reactive, and transactional. To borrow a Russian phrase that surfaced two weeks ago in response to Trump’s shifting Ukraine “deadline,” he’s the type of leader who has “seven Fridays in one week”—constantly blowing hot and cold.
In theory, tariffs could serve as leverage to end wars, pressure autocrats, and even reward democratic decision-making. But wielded inconsistently—sometimes as punishment for aggression, other times as retribution against allies making sovereign choices—they risk becoming a blunt instrument that alienates friends, emboldens foes, and leaves the global order wobbling.
And if you have any doubts about the dangers of Trump’s use of tariffs as a weapon, revisit the April remarks (below) by Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, made in response to Trump’s so‑called “Liberation Day” tariff blitz. As Wong pointedly warned: “These are not actions one does to a friend.”
For decades the U.S. was the bedrock for the free market economies of the world, and let efforts to build a multilateral trading system…
What the U.S. is doing now is not reform. It is abandoning the entire system it had created. Its new approach of reciprocal tariffs, country by country, is a complete rejection of the WTO framework….
The likelihood of a full-blown global trade war is growing…
Singapore will take a bigger hot than others, because of our heavy reliance on trade. The last time the world experienced something like this was in the 1930s. Trade wars escalated into armed conflict - and eventually the Second World War. Now one can say how the current situation will unfold in the coming months or years. But we must be clear-eyed about the dangers that are building up in the world. Global institutions are getting weaker. International norms are eroding….
We must brace ourselves for more shocks to come…The risks are real and the stakes are high
- Singapore Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, April 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump took to his social media platform just after midnight on Thursday to say he is not pleased with Canada announcing it will recognize a Palestinian state in September if the West Bank's governing body agrees to make certain commitments. "Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine," Trump posted on Truth Social. "That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!" Prime Minister Mark Carney confirmed earlier on Wednesday that trade negotiations have not been finalized just two days ahead of the deadline. "It is possible that [negotiations] may not conclude by the first of August," Carney said at a news conference on Wednesday. "But we'll see with the teams there. We're working hard." Trump set an Aug. 1 deadline for Canada to reach a trade deal and has threatened to impose a 35 per cent tariff on goods that don't comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). That rate would apply to Canadian exports currently being tariffed at 25 per cent, under Trump's emergency powers, citing what he says is a national security threat from fentanyl trafficking. - CBC
Ninety-one people have been killed while seeking aid in Gaza in the past day, the Hamas-run health ministry says. In its latest update, the ministry says that overall 111 people have been killed in the last 24 hours. A further 820 people were injured, it adds. It brings the total number of people killed in Gaza since Israel launched a campaign in response to the Hamas attacks on 7 October 2023 to 60,249 people, the ministry adds. In a separate statement, the ministry says two people have died of malnutrition in the past day, bringing the number of hunger related deaths since the start of the war to 159. Meanwhile, the US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is meeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, with reports he may also visit aid sites in Gaza - BBC
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday said he warned Chinese officials that continued purchases of sanctioned Russian oil would lead to big tariffs due to legislation in Congress but was told that Beijing would protect its energy sovereignty. Wrapping up two days of US-China trade talks in Stockholm, Bessent said he also expressed US displeasure at China's continued purchases of sanctioned Iranian oil, and its sales of over $15 billion worth of dual-use technology goods to Russia that have bolstered Moscow's war against Ukraine - Reuters
Russia bombarded Kyiv with a missile and drone attack before dawn on Thursday, killing at least eight people, Ukrainian officials said, in an assault that came soon after President Trump had warned Moscow of new sanctions if such violence persisted. Rescuers raced to more than two dozen locations around the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, to extinguish fires and search for survivors in the rubble of blasted apartment buildings. “We have 52 injured, nearly 30 hospitalized,” Tymur Tkachenko, the head of the city’s military administration, said in a statement. “Among them, nine children were injured.” One child was among those killed. The number of dead and wounded was likely to grow, Mr. Tkachenko said. The assault came shortly after Mr. Trump threatened new sanctions on Moscow if President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia did not put a halt to the bloodshed in 10 days. Russian officials have dismissed that warning - NYT
Crowds of demonstrators cheered in jubilation in Kyiv on July 31 as they celebrated a vote in Ukraine's parliament which approved new legislation to restore the independence of anti-corruption agencies. The measure was supported by 331 deputies in the 450-seat parliament and opposed by none. It came after a law -- which many feared would curb corruption investigations -- passed last week, igniting the largest public protests since Russia launched its full-scale invasion more than three years ago. The new law restores the independence of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAP). President Volodymyr Zelensky, who signed the original legislation on July 22, said the intention of the law was to rid the agencies of Russian influence that had long made them susceptible to corruption. But the limits on their independence enraged many Ukrainians -- especially younger people -- who immediately turned out for public protests even though Russian missiles and drones had rained down on Kyiv and other cities just hours earlier - RFE/RL
Both the US and China have deployed icebreakers to Arctic waters north of Alaska recently, as the two powers jostle for dominance in the region. USCGC Healy, America's largest and most technologically advanced icebreaker, is conducting a mission to reinforce US presence in the Arctic. Regarding the deployment of the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2, the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C., said that China has always conducted normal maritime activities in accordance with international law. (NW)
The US military will next year upgrade Palau’s main harbour, usually frequented by dive boats full of tourists heading to emerald lagoons, so that American warships can enter the Pacific Island nation’s narrow channels and dock here. The wharf will be expanded and elevated. There will be a new logistics hub with a warehouse, enabling US Navy ships to refuel, reload and rearm. This is all part of a broader effort to boost the US military’s presence in the Western Pacific, allowing for the rapid mobilization of American forces in the event of a conflict involving China. Across Palau, Chinese businesses and developers have leased land near a half-dozen strategic locations where the US is beefing up efforts to detect and deter China’s growing reach into the region - WP
Lithuania Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas stepped down on Thursday following investigations into his business dealings that prompted protests in the Baltic country ’s capital calling for his resignation. Paluckas, a newly established leader of the center-left Social Democrats, ascended to the role late last year after a three-party coalition formed following parliamentary elections in October. His entire cabinet is now expected also to resign, potentially leaving the country without an effective government weeks before Russia holds joint military exercises with neighboring Belarus. Lithuanian foreign policy is unlikely to change as a result of the government shakeup. Nausėda, who was elected separately, is the country’s face on the world stage and has been one of the most stalwart supporters of Ukraine in its fight against invading Russian forces. Paluckas has recently been dogged by media investigations into his business and financial dealings. Several media outlets published investigations in July regarding Paluckas’ past and present ventures and alleged mishandlings, including ones more than a decade ago. The Baltic country’s anti-corruption and law enforcement agencies subsequently launched their own probes - Independent
Several of Russia’s largest banks are reporting an outflow of individual deposits following reductions in interest rates and widespread rumors concerning potential deposit freezes by the government. According to data analyzed by the consultancy Frank RG, eight of the country’s 20 largest credit institutions experienced deposit outflows in June. The largest withdrawal was recorded at Alfa-Bank, Russia’s biggest private lender with roughly 30 million clients, which saw a 3.9% decline in retail deposits equivalent to 125.3 billion rubles ($1.54 billion, according to spot foreign exchange market data published by Reuters). Other banks posting significant outflows include the privately owned Sovcombank (-2.9%), Dom.RF (-2.5%), Russian Standard Bank (-2.2%), MKB (-2%) and both GPB and Post Bank (-1.1%). Among the top 20 lenders, only the banking subsidiary of Russian tech giant Yandex and the agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank registered increases in term deposits, with growth rates of 22.5% and 5.4% respectively, Frank RG reported - Moscow Times
Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was totally vibing as he heard Katy Perry "Roar" at Wednesday's "Lifetimes" tour! Several videos posted by fellow concertgoers show the former Canadian Prime Minister with a cautious grin on his face ... swaying and completely locked in on KP as she belted out her biggest hits. We even caught him in a full-teeth smile as he sang along to "Roar" ... while the pop star flew over him in her oversized mechanical butterfly -- yes, the one that nearly threw her into the crowd a few weeks ago. Anyhoo, seems like this show went off without a hitch and Justin enjoyed seeing the 'California Gurl' do her thing. Unclear if the pair met up after the show ... but as you know, we caught them dining Monday evening at the swanky Le Violon restaurant. - TMZ
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