WAR IN UKRAINE: March 21, 2023
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 391
China's President Xi Jinping is in Moscow for a two-day visit and talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is Xi's first visit to Russia since Russian troops invaded Ukraine in 2022 - he's due to have lunch with Putin later, and hold formal talks on Tuesday. The trip is taking place days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for President Putin for an alleged war crime. Beijing has described it as a trip “for friendship and peace”, with Russia saying the leaders will discuss a "comprehensive partnership and strategic co-operation" - BBC
Both the UK and Ukrainian governments have urged China's Xi Jinping to use his trip to Russia to bring an end to the war in neighbouring Ukraine. Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said Xi's trip was being "closely" watched - and told various news agencies that his country expected the Chinese leader to use his "influence on Moscow to make it put an end to the aggressive war against Ukraine". In a similar tone, a Downing Street spokesperson said Xi should use his visit to encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw his troops from Ukraine and "cease bombing Ukrainian cities, hospitals, schools and to halt some of these atrocities" - BBC
Not long after Xi landed in Moscow, the secretary of Ukraine's national security and defence council tweeted, suggesting China's 12-point peace plan to help resolve the war misses out some key details. Oleksiy Danilov said the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine's territory should be the "first and main" clause of the proposal. It currently says nothing of the kind - only that the "sovereignty of all countries" should be respected.
Norway says it has transferred eight Leopard 2 tanks and four support vehicles to Ukraine. The equipment has already arrived in Ukraine, whilst personnel training continues in Poland.
European Union foreign ministers agreed to endorse a two-billion-euro plan at a Brussels summit this week that aims to provide Ukraine with one million shells in the next 12 months as well as replenish EU stocks. Kyiv has complained that its forces are having to ration firepower as Russia's year-long invasion has turned into a grinding war of attrition, AFP reports. Ukraine has told the EU it wants 350,000 shells a month to help its troops hold back Moscow's onslaught and allow them to launch fresh counter-offensives later in the year. "More artillery ammunition for Ukraine as fast as possible," Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged in a social media post. The first part of the plan commits one billion euros ($1.06 billion) of shared funding to help EU states tapping into their already stretched stocks for ammunition that can be sent quickly. The second billion euros will be dedicated to order 155-millimetre shells for Ukraine as part of a massive joint procurement push intended to spur EU defense firms to ramp up production. Some European media reported that France had blocked a proposal for non-EU firms to provide ammunition due to a shortage of explosives in the bloc
A top adviser to the Ukrainian government appears to be claiming that President Putin is sending body doubles to public events in his place. Anton Gerashchenko tweeted three recent pictures of the Russian president—including two that purported to show Putin venturing into disputed territories inside Ukraine. Red circles were drawn beneath his chin in all three images in an apparent claim that they cannot be the same man. An image of Putin in Crimea on March 18 appears to show a heavier jowl than subsequent photos taken in Mariupol, which is under Russian control in Ukraine, and Moscow. It may simply be the case that some of the photos were more unflattering than others, but Gerashchenko asked: “Which one do you think is the real one?”
Required reading…
Putin the Pariah: War crimes arrest warrant deepens Russia’s isolation
On March 17, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague indicted Russian President Vladimir Putin and issued an arrest warrant. This indictment is likely to have far-reaching consequences for Putin personally and for Russia.
The warrant states that Putin “is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes.”
The ICC is a comparatively new international organization. It was created in July 1998 and formally established in 2002. At present, 123 countries have ratified its statute. They include all the countries of South America, all EU countries, most of Oceania, and roughly half of Africa. All these countries are now theoretically committed to arresting Putin. No sovereign immunity will shield him.
ICC indictments are rare. To date, the court has only indicted 52 people, but it aims to prosecute top culprits. Earlier indictments have targeted former presidents Omar al-Bashir of the Sudan and Muammar Gaddafi of Libya. In this context, the indictment of Putin appears entirely natural.
Read the full Atlantic Council Ukraine Alert analysis here