WAR IN UKRAINE: April 30, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 65
Russia has been forced to merge and redeploy depleted and disparate units in eastern Ukraine, the UK's Ministry of Defence says. Fighting continues in the Donbas region in the east. But the Russian campaign to seize it is behind schedule and moving slowly, a senior US defence official says. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says the chances of peace talks ending are "high" because of Russia's "playbook on murdering people" - BBC
The mayor of Mariupol said that more than 600 people were injured in a Russian bombing that struck the makeshift hospital facility within the besieged Azovstal steel complex. The plant was heavily bombed on Wednesday night, according to multiple accounts. A commander inside the plant told CNN that there was not much food and water left for the plant's defenders and that they had a limited amount of ammunition. An operation to evacuate civilians from plant in Mariupol was planned for Friday, according to the president's office - CNN
On three separate occasions, Pope Francis sent messages to Russian President Vladimir Putin asking him to allow a ship with a Vatican flag to evacuate civilians trapped in Mariupol's Azovstal steel mill. All the requests were rejected, according to the Italian newspaper Il Messaggero. The Holy Father has come under criticism from Ukrainian Catholic leaders and priests for prematurely encouraging reconciliation between Ukrainians and Russians.
Wednesday’s Russian missile strike on Kyiv killed a Ukrainian RFE/RL producer and journalist. Vira Hyrych was killed by a Russian missile that hit her apartment building in Kyiv on April 28, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported. Her body was found under the rubble on April 29. A colleague said Vira had just recently returned to Kyiv to care for elderly parents, and that her new flat was her pride and joy. At least seven journalists have been killed since Russia invaded Ukraine
British ambassador Melinda Simmons, one of the last heads of mission to leave Kyiv, returns to the capital. “It was a long drive but worth going the distance,” she tweeted on April 29. “So good to be in Kyiv again.” The British embassy left Kyiv a week before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. A total of 27 embassies have resumed work in Kyiv. American and Canadian diplomats are still absent from their desks.
The criminal trial into the downing of MH17 will resume in the Netherlands on May 16. It will mark the 13th sitting of the special corner. The court said the first part will address issues relating to compensation, followed by replies from the prosecution and then the defendants. Only one of the four defendants is being represented in court. The Dutch legal team representing a Russian national is believed to have their fees paid by Moscow. Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was downed by a Russian BUK missile over eastern Ukraine in July 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew. The area where the debris fell has been under the control of Russian-backed combatants since early that year.
Tactical nuclear weapons could potentially be used at some point if the new Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine fails and the Kremlin doesn’t opt for a full scale mobilisation of troops, argues a new White Paper by Oxford Analytica.
“If the already deep routine between Europe and the West and Russia worsens, Moscow might feel less self restraint on using tactical nuclear weapons, especially if this would result in a deal between Ukraine and the West. Also, Russia might use chemical weapons to quickly end and prevent sieges such as that currently against Mariupol; this could be blamed on the leaking of industrial chemicals for plausible deniability. However, there is a low probability of Russia using chemical or nuclear weapons.
“The Russian military likely lacks the capacity to advance beyond the Donbas region and has experienced great difficulty in trying to take Kharkiv and Odesa in particular. Russian occupation of a land corridor between Crimea and the Donbas region would be met with an insurgency within and offences by Ukraine without. The West will continue to support Ukraine militarily and financially. Russian society is likely to become more militarised and securitised. Russia’s economy will largely adjust to sanctions, but with possible shortages of food and durables such as like electronics. The government will help to support the population with some social payments but not enough to cover rising inflation.
“With the ultimate goal to control all of Ukraine could remain, the most likely outcome is a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine similar to that of 2014 but of a much larger scale and intensity.”