WAR IN UKRAINE: October 30, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 249
The Russian Ministry of Defense says Moscow is suspending its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative after an alleged Ukrainian attack "led by British specialists" on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. Ukraine has denied any involvement. "Taking into account... the terrorist act by the Kyiv regime with the participation of British experts against the ships of the Black Sea Fleet and civilian vessels involved in ensuring the security of the 'grain corridor,' the Russian side suspends participation in the implementation of agreements on the export of agricultural products from Ukrainian ports," the ministry said in a statement.
The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense calls the accusations "false statements of an epic scale." Russia claimed Ukraine carried out a "massive" drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, damaging one warship. Russia said the ships targeted were involved in the internationally-brokered deal to allow grain exports from Ukrainian ports. It’s up for renewal next month.
I’ve been saying it was becoming increasingly clear the past days that Moscow’s been maneuvering to back away or change the UN/Turkey-brokered grain corridor deal, which is bringing food relief to millions around globe - including countries allied with Russia. Cancellation of the Black Sea grain corridor deal couldn’t come at worse time. An estimated 345 million people are facing acute food insecurity in 82 countries. Since the deal was struck, 380 vessels carried 8.5 million tonnes of foodstuffs from Ukraine to countries in Africa, Asia, and Europe.
With the apparent collapse of the BSGI, western leaders will be reviewing policy and military responses to keep grain and other foodstuffs flowing out of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. One could be NATO or UN-flagged naval escorts of cargo vessels along delineated corridors.
The apparent collapse of the Black Sea grain corridor deal represents a huge slap in face by Russia to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. He and his most senior officials put a lot of skin in the game to make it happen - at the time he called it “a victory for diplomacy” and also one of the most important deals he’s ever been involved in. The Russian move also won’t go over well in Ankara, where Türkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan staked his reputation on brokering the deal.
The UN spokesperson says they’re in touch with the Russians. He said its vital all parties refrain from any action that would imperil the grain corridor deal that’s having a positive impact on food access for millions. "It is vital that all parties refrain from any action that would imperil the Black Sea Grain Initiative which is a critical humanitarian effort that is clearly having a positive impact on access to food for millions of people around the world," U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said.
UN officials appear to have been blind sighted by the Russian move. U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths had said only on Wednesday that he was "relatively optimistic" that the deal that allowed a resumption of Ukraine Black Sea grain exports would be extended beyond mid-November.
Ukraine Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba: “We have warned of Russia’s plans to ruin the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Now Moscow uses a false pretext to block the grain corridor which ensures food security for millions of people. I call on all states to demand Russia to stop its hunger games and recommit to its obligations.”