WAR IN UKRAINE: August 3, 2022
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 161
Russia accused the US of direct involvement in the war in Ukraine for the first time on Tuesday. Lt Gen Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Moscow's defence ministry, said the US is "directly responsible" for rocket attacks which killed civilians in the Donbas region. Intercepted calls between Ukrainian officials proved this, he said - BBC
A U.S. government plane carrying the second official in line to US president (after the Vice-President) has landed in Taiwan. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was met by a small delegation upon her arrival on the island. She’s the most senior US politician to visit in 25 years. China has threatened consequences but is not yet in position to stage an invasion but can cause mischief - in my opinion power outages or a massive cyberattack that could cause disruption to Taiwan’s global leading semiconductor industry.
From my vantage point here in Ukraine, many ordinary folks are nervously and closely following the Pelosi Taiwan visit. It’s lit up Ukrainian social media channels. The handling of it and any reaction by Washington to any China “consequences” is seen here as a test of US resolve. But for now plenty of anxiety - could for example, Chinese retaliation force the Biden Administration to become distracted to the point that the war in Ukraine received less attention?
There’s plenty of reaction, positive and negative to the Pelosi visit to Taiwan - and the Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis. Said Michael Popow, a U.S.-based technology investor: “It sounds like a big opportunity has just been blown for Biden to demand that China completely back away from (its support of) Russia's invasion of Ukraine. If China wants any hope of playing a role of stability in the 21st century they have to start by immediately condemning Putin's invasion and cancel funding of his war machine. THEN, Pelosi will cancel her trip. Given how badly Xi wanted this I would say that Biden had plenty of leverage.“
Thomas Friedman, NYT: “There are moments in international relations when you need to keep your eyes on the prize. Today that prize is crystal clear: We must ensure that Ukraine is able, at a minimum, to blunt — and, at a maximum, reverse — Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion, which if it succeeds will pose a direct threat to the stability of the whole European Union.
“To help create the greatest possibility of Ukraine reversing Putin’s invasion, Biden and his national security adviser Jake Sullivan held a series of very tough meetings with China’s leadership, imploring Beijing not to enter the Ukraine conflict by providing military assistance to Russia — and particularly now, when Putin’s arsenal has been diminished by five months of grinding war.
“Biden, according to a senior U.S. official, personally told President Xi Jinping that if China entered the war in Ukraine on Russia’s side, Beijing would be risking access to its two most important export markets — the United States and the European Union. (China is one of the best countries in the world at manufacturing drones, which are precisely what Putin’s troops need most right now.)
“By all indications, U.S. officials tell me, China has responded by not providing military aid to Putin — at a time when the U.S. and NATO have been giving Ukraine intelligence support and a significant number of advanced weapons that have done serious damage to the military of Russia, China’s ostensible ally.“
Popow: “Given that advanced semiconductor production (which Taiwan dominates 80%+ and is fundamental to all other technologies) is the one area of technology that China lags farthest behind the U.S., a takeover of Taiwan by China could theoretically help China leapfrog the U.S. as the dominant world power in one fell swoop. In a 2018 speech, Xi clearly stated that he believes that technological supremacy will determine who leads the new world order for the next 50 or so years which makes Taiwan the most important chess piece on the geopolitical board.“
US Secretary of State Blinken said that military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of Joe Biden’s administration already amounts to approximately $8.7 billion.
Required reading…
There is an electronic war that cries out to be fought -- drones that need to be jammed or flown to precise targets, long-range artillery with GPS targeting, enemy chatter that needs to be plucked from the skies. Some of these capabilities are increasing as the West gradually introduces new systems to the battlefield and trains Ukrainians to operate them. Read the full OpEd on CNN Opinion - The American-made weapons that could change everything - by David Andelman here