WORLD BRIEFING: October 2, 2023

Today marks 586 days since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine

  • President Joe Biden has vowed continued US support for Ukraine, after further military funding was excluded from a last-minute congressional budget deal. The temporary measure, pushed through to avert a government shutdown, did not include $6bn (£4.92bn) in military aid for Kyiv - a top White House priority. Hardline Republicans oppose further military aid, with many openly opposing Mr Biden's approach to the war. But on Sunday Mr Biden said Ukraine could "count on" US support. "We cannot, under any circumstances, allow US support to Ukraine to be interrupted," Mr Biden said. - BBC

  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Monday he believes the United States “will be able to find the necessary solutions” to continue military support for Ukraine Speaking to reporters alongside European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, Kuleba said Ukraine has had in-depth discussions with both Democratic and Republican lawmakers. He described a decision by U.S. lawmakers to strip financial support for Ukraine from a stopgap budget bill passed Saturday to halt a federal government shutdown as an “incident” rather than a systemic change in support. “We don't feel that the U.S. support has been shattered, because the United States understands that what is at stake in Ukraine is much bigger than just Ukraine, it's about the stability and predictability of the world,” Kuleba said - VOA

  • Most European Union foreign ministers gathered for a meeting in Kyiv on October 2 in a show of solidarity with Ukraine as concerns are growing about a possible weakening of support in the bloc after the election victory in EU member Slovakia of a populist party that opposes military aid for the war-wracked country. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba hailed the meeting as "historic" and a reiterated that the place of Ukraine was in the 27-member bloc. "We are convening a historic meeting of EU Foreign Ministers here in Ukraine, candidate country and future member of the EU," Borrell wrote in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter. "We are here to express our solidarity and support to the Ukrainian people," he said - RFE/RL

  • The pro-India leader of the Maldives, President Ibu Solih, just lost his bid for re-election He was defeated by Dr. Mohamed Muizzu, who heads a party that is deeply suspicious of India. His party also backs a strong relationship with China

  • The United States has condemned China’s reported sentencing of prominent Uyghur academic Rahile Dawut to life in prison, calling for the immediate release of the scholar known for documenting folklore and traditions of the Muslim minority in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region. The statement, released by the US State Department Friday, follows a report from non-profit human rights group Dui Hua Foundation on September 21, which said Rahile Dawut was serving a life sentence for endangering state security, citing a source in the Chinese government. Rahile Dawut, who is widely believed by academics and rights groups to have been taken into official custody in 2017, is among what the non-profit Uyghur Human Rights Project in 2021 estimated to be more than 300 Uyghur and other Muslim intellectuals detained by the Chinese government amid a broader crackdown.

  • Indonesia has inaugurated its first high-speed railway, a $7.3bn (£5.9) project backed by China under its Belt and Road Initiative.


Required reading…

Uganda rally ban presages electoral war of attrition - Oxford Analytica

A new political standoff is brewing after the government once again banned the opposition from holding rallies

Ugandan police on September 13 banned opposition leader Bobi Wine and his National Unity Platform (NUP) from continuing a nationwide campaign of political rallies, citing risks to public order. However, the ban has been widely perceived as politically motivated, particularly because the massive crowds attending the rallies appeared to be giving the opposition political momentum.

What next

Wine and the NUP have denounced the ban as illegal and unjust, and have vowed to continue their activities. However, they may not actually do so, as the police are unlikely to authorise further rallies and the opposition might not be ready to risk a direct confrontation by flouting this. More broadly, the frictions suggests political manoeuvring ahead of the 2026 elections has now unofficially commenced. Such confrontations will become ever more likely as the vote draws nearer.