Why Washington Wants Ukraine to Help Replace Canadian Potash
A quiet US push to reopen Belarusian fertilizer routes reveals growing anxiety over sanctions, supply chains, and Canada’s leverage
WORLD BRIEFING | POTASH POLITICS
The United States has asked Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine to allow the transit of Belarusian potash through their territories, according to an unsigned diplomatic document obtained by RFE/RL. The request follows Washington’s decision in March to lift sanctions on Belaruskali - one of the world’s largest potash producers and the single biggest source of revenue for Alexander Lukashenko’s government.
For Kyiv, the request borders on geopolitical absurdity: facilitating export revenues for the very regime that helped launch the war now devastating Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry confirmed receipt of the document but declined to comment further.
The backdrop is a deepening anxiety in Washington over fertilizer supply. Russia and Belarus together account for more than a third of global potash production, while Canada - specifically Saskatchewan - supplies nearly 90 percent of US imports. With the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement heading into renegotiation this summer and the mood in Washington described as confrontational, the Trump administration appears to be building alternative leverage before any tariff confrontation.
The calculus was made explicit last December, when Washington struck a deal with Minsk: 123 political prisoners released in exchange for sanctions relief on potash exports. Critics note the arrangement handed Lukashenko a significant economic lifeline dressed up as a human rights win.
The pressure intensified dramatically after Iran moved to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint tied to roughly 30 percent of global fertilizer trade. The resulting spike in shipping risk and input prices has turned fertilizer security into a strategic concern inside Washington.
But industry analysts caution that Belarusian potash is no easy substitute for Canadian supply. The logistics alone - ocean freight, US port congestion, and long inland hauls - would substantially raise costs for American farmers, who would likely pass them on to consumers. “They will inevitably have to buy Canadian potash or face having substantially less food grown in their country,” said Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash.
For now, Warsaw, Kyiv and Vilnius have not responded publicly to the US request. Their answer - shaped by both alliance politics and proximity to Belarus - may be the next indicator of how far Washington is willing to push this particular gambit.
Ukraine is being asked to facilitate exports that would directly benefit the regime that permitted Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch its 2022 invasion
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