Watching the Edge From Yerevan
An underreported capital offers a sharp lens on Iran’s next move, Russia’s lingering grip and the scramble for stability in the Caucasus
First full working day in Yerevan - and already one thing is clear: Armenia may be one of the most underreported countries in the world, despite sitting at the crossroads of some of today’s biggest geopolitical fault lines.
Bordered by Georgia, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia is trying to strengthen democracy, modern governance and creativity while navigating a very rough neighbourhood. That means managing the fallout from the Iran war, Russia’s lingering grip on key parts of the economy, and fragile ties with regional rivals.
Over the coming days, I’ll be reporting from the ground to help connect the dots between the turbulence shaping this region - and the quiet but important story unfolding here.
World Briefing from Yerevan. Stay tuned.
Iran says it has yet to decide whether to attend a new round of peace negotiations with the United States, as Washington’s delegation prepared to depart for Pakistan on Monday. The uncertainty over the talks on ending the war that engulfed the region and rattled global markets came as US President Donald Trump suggested he could resume attacks should the current temporary ceasefire – now in its final days – lapse. Since initial talks in Islamabad ended without a deal earlier this month, both sides have accused the other of breaching the truce. “We have no plans for the next round of negotiation, and no decision has been made in this regard,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday. “The US is carrying out behaviors that do not in any way indicate seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process,” he added, calling an ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports and its recent seizure of a ship “clear violations of the ceasefire.” Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the truce by harassing vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade route, which Iran has all but shut. The US delegation was due to head to Pakistan “soon,” a source familiar with the plan told AFP on Monday, with Trump telling PBS News that Iran was “supposed to be there. We agreed to be there.” He said that if the ceasefire ended without a peace deal “then lots of bombs start going off,” separately telling Bloomberg News it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce. Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight Tuesday, Tehran time, though in his comments to Bloomberg, Trump said the end was a day later, on Wednesday evening Washington time. Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday over fears hostilities could resume in the weeks-long war, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again following a brief reopening over the weekend. In spite of the uncertainty surrounding the talks in Pakistan, security has been visibly stepped up in the capital Islamabad. A White House official said Vice President JD Vance would lead the delegation, joined by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran’s ISNA news agency cited a spokesperson for Iran’s central command center as warning that the military “will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy,” while Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without permission “will be targeted.” - Al Arabiya
The two-week truce, which went into effect April 8, is being tested in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas that Tehran has sought to control, prompting the United States to blockade Iranian ports. A U.S. Navy destroyer fired on an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday after it defied that blockade, Mr. Trump said, and ultimately U.S. forces seized it. Iran’s armed forces called it “piracy,” warning that they would soon retaliate, according to Tasnim, a semiofficial Iranian news agency - NYT
A BBC examination of financial market data has uncovered a striking pattern: millions of dollars in trades were placed shortly before some of Donald Trump’s most market-moving announcements during his second term in office. The broadcaster matched unusual spikes in trading activity to major statements later released through social media posts or media interviews, in some cases just minutes before they became public. While some analysts say the activity bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, others argue certain traders may simply have grown skilled at anticipating the interventions of a president whose words can send markets swinging.
There has been no reconstruction in Gaza since a fragile Trump administration-backed ceasefire went into effect in October, and human development across Gaza has been set back by a staggering 77 years According to a report issued by the United Nations and the European Union, the coastal strip needs $71.4-billion for reconstruction over the next decade. “The impact on the lives of Gazans is just as devastating: more than 60 per cent of the population having lost their homes and 1.9 million people displaced, often multiple times. Women, children, persons with disabilities, and those with pre-existing vulnerabilities bear the greatest burden,” the report said
Washington and its allies began major live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, with Japan joining as a full participant for the first time. The US and the Philippines have held joint drills since 2001; other allies, including Australia, France, and New Zealand, have since joined, and this year’s “largest ever” exercise signals a response to growing Chinese assertiveness in the region. Japan in particular is rearming, despite its explicitly pacifist constitution: Tokyo plans to increase defense of nearby sea lanes, and has signed a $14 billion contract to build destroyers for Australia as part of deepening defense ties. Germany has similarly begun a pivot to military manufacturing, hoping to stem a longstanding industrial decline - Semafor
EU ambassadors are poised to approve a €90 billion loan to Ukraine on Wednesday — if Russian oil transit to Hungary resumes in time. In a sign of optimism they can get the deal over the line, the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU put the Ukraine loan on the agenda of a meeting of the EU’s 27 ambassadors on Wednesday. If oil flows resume before then, Hungary is expected to drop its opposition and the loan will be approved, four EU diplomats, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, told POLITICO. Hungary’s outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Sunday that he will drop his veto of the loan as soon as oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline — which was damaged in a Russian strike in January — is restored. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced last week that the pipeline would be operational by the end of the month, but diplomats said there’s a strong chance flows could resume before Wednesday’s meeting. If the loan is approved this week, Kyiv would be set to receive the money in May, offering relief to Ukraine’s war-battered economy as it continues to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion, now in its fifth year. Once Hungary lifts its veto the European Commission would be able to disburse the funds after completing technical checks expected to take a few weeks - Politico
Russian consumers are increasingly switching to cheaper food products as real incomes come under pressure and households look to cut costs, a senior executive at the country’s largest food retailer said. Yekaterina Lobacheva, president of X5 Group, which operates the Perekrestok, Pyaterochka and Chizhik chains, said the company had observed a sharp rise in demand for low-cost items and store-brand products. The trend underscores a cooling in consumer demand in Russia’s slowing economy, where high interest rates and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on household spending, even as officials say price growth is easing. “We recently noticed that cookie consumption has risen — almost two and a half times,” Lobacheva told the RBC news website in an interview. “It’s something sweet, a small indulgence, but cheaper than chocolate and other confectionery.” Sales of X5’s own-brand products, which are typically priced below those of third-party manufacturers, have also increased notably, she said. Another sign of tightening household budgets is rapid growth in discount retail formats that are traditionally aimed at lower-income shoppers. Lobacheva said X5’s hard-discount chain Chizhik is expected to overtake Pyaterochka in revenue for the first time this year. Household purchasing power is being squeezed by a combination of demographic decline, high interest rates set by the Central Bank and a prolonged effort to curb inflation, Lobacheva said - Moscow Times
Madonna‘s hung up ... because her clothes have allegedly disappeared after her surprise Coachella appearance this weekend. In an Instagram story posted Monday, Madonna said she was “flying high” after performing a new song from her upcoming album “Confessions II” in a “full circle moment” ... but the mysteriously missing costumes put a damper on the weekend. Sources familiar with the situation tell TMZ ... the iconic artist has filed a police report over the missing garments. The singer wrote ... “These aren’t just clothes, they are part of my history.” She penned a plea to her 20 million followers, adding ... “I’m hoping and praying that some kind soul, will find these items and reach out to my team” -- and provided an email address. The Material Girl is offering a reward for the safe return of her garments - TMZ
The journals….
