Ukraine’s War Casts Long Shadow as US and India Strike Surprise Trade Deal
Trump touts an India deal that would supposedly choke off Russian oil revenues, but Indian analysts question the math, the promises - and whether this is leverage, not alignment
🔥 World Briefing Hot Take
Since the first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion, India has carefully sat on the fence. New Delhi neither condemned the war nor joined Western sanctions, even as it ramped up purchases of discounted Russian oil. Prime Minister Narendra Modi pursued shuttle diplomacy - calling Kyiv, visiting Moscow, presenting India as a neutral bridge rather than a moral actor. That posture now looks increasingly strained. President Donald Trump’s trade deal with India is being framed as a geopolitical pivot that could cut Russia’s oil revenues, but India’s silence since the announcement suggests hesitation, not alignment.
That silence matters because memory still lingers in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians have not forgotten Modi’s early visit to Kyiv followed soon after by a highly publicized embrace of Vladimir Putin in Moscow - just days after a Russian missile strike tore through a children’s hospital in July 2024.
“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the time, referring to the deadly Russian attacks.
For Kyiv, it was a moment that crystallized India’s moral ambiguity: empathy without consequence, diplomacy without distance. Now, as Washington claims New Delhi is ready to turn off the Russian oil tap, Moscow says it’s heard nothing - and Indian analysts openly question whether this is substance or Trumpian squeeze tactics wrapped in big numbers and bigger claims.
There is a deeper contradiction India can no longer dodge. By staying neutral on Ukraine, New Delhi has avoided offending Moscow - but at the cost of blurring its own principles. India is a country that demands respect for territorial integrity while facing persistent claims and pressure from Pakistan and China. Silence on Ukraine increasingly looks less like strategic autonomy and more like selective outrage. If Ukraine’s war has reached New Delhi, it’s not because India chose sides - but because the global system is forcing the issue. Fence-sitting works until it doesn’t. And the longer India delays clarifying where it stands, the more its credibility - not just its trade balance - comes into question.
News Briefs
US President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with India on Monday saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil over the war in Ukraine. Trump said he was cutting tariffs on Indian goods to 18 per cent. He had previously levied 25 per cent reciprocal tariffs, plus an additional 25 per cent for New Delhi’s purchases of Moscow’s oil. Modi said Monday he had a “wonderful” phone call with Trump and thanked him for reducing levies on Indian products - but made no reference to Trump’s assertion about halting Russian oil purchases. India’s refusal to stop buying oil from Russia - which Washington says funds Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - has been a bone of contention for months as Trump seeks an elusive end to the war. “Out of friendship and respect for Prime Minister Modi and, as per his request, effective immediately, we agreed to a Trade Deal between the United States and India,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump said that the United States would lower the reciprocal tariff imposed on India during his waves of global “Liberation Day” tariffs last year from 25 per cent to 18 per cent. A White House official told AFP that an additional 25 per cent tariff Trump had slapped on India for its purchase of Russian oil in August would also be dropped. Trump added that Modi “agreed to stop buying Russian Oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela. This will help END THE WAR in Ukraine.” The United States is effectively overseeing Venezuelan oil exports since toppling the South American country’s leader, Nicolas Maduro, in a military operation in January. Trump called Modi "one of my greatest friends" and said they spoke about "many things" including trade and ending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As recently as December, Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to New Delhi that he was ready to continue "uninterrupted shipments" of fuel to India despite US pressure. Trump also said in October that Modi had promised to stop buying Russian oil, but an agreement did not materialise at the time.
The Kremlin said Tuesday that it had not received any information from India about its alleged plans to stop purchasing Russian oil after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new trade deal with India that slashes tariffs on Indian goods. “So far, we haven’t heard any statements from New Delhi on this matter,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. He added that Russia is “carefully monitoring the news” surrounding Trump’s claim - Moscow Times
Indian analysts were cautiously optimistic over the country’s trade deal with the US, but warned that, because details of the agreement were scarce, much remained in doubt. One leading Indian economics journalist noted that Trump’s announcement that India would spend $500 billion on US goods would amount to about 85% of the annual Indian federal budget, with other experts also voicing skepticism over the “colossal sum.” As The Indian Express’ business editor put it, “With Trump, it’s always the art of the squeeze.”
Indian refiners have not received any directive from the government to halt purchases of Russian crude and would require time to wind down transactions that are already underway. India’s imports of Russian crude had touched a high of about 2 million barrels per day in June last year. Trump said that India would purchase oil from Venezuela. However, refinery officials noted that only Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy possess the technical capability to handle large volumes of heavy crude.According to the sources, state run refiners cannot easily switch to Venezuelan oil and would be able to substitute less than 10% of the volumes currently sourced from Russia - Times of India
Russia fired around 450 drones and 70 missiles at Ukraine overnight in one of the largest attacks of its ongoing all-out war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday, shortly before the representatives of the two countries were due to attend US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi. The aerial assault targeted at least five regions and focused on Ukraine’s power grid as part of Moscow’s campaign to deny civilians electricity, heating and running water during the coldest winter in years. At least 10 people were wounded, officials said. “Taking advantage of the coldest days of winter to terrorise people is more important to Russia than diplomacy,” Zelensky said - Euronews
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Tuesday preparatory work was under way to restart direct discussions between Europe and Russia over the war in Ukraine. “It has to be prepared, so technical discussions are under way to prepare for this,” Macron said, answering a reporter who asked the president about his call in December to restart talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. “It is important that Europeans restore their own channels of communication, it is being prepared at the technical level,” Macron added, during a visit to farmers in the Haute-Saône department.
The Paris prosecutor’s office said a search was under way at the French offices of Elon Musk’s social media network X on Tuesday as part of an investigation opened in January 2025. The prosecutor’s cybercrime unit was conducting the searches, it added in a post on X, with Europol also involved and the support of the French police’s own cybercrime unit. There was no immediate comment from X. The Paris prosecutor’s office said it launched the investigation after being contacted by a lawmaker alleging that biased algorithms in X were likely to have distorted the operation of an automated data processing system. The probe has since expanded to investigate alleged “complicity” in spreading pornographic images of minors, sexually explicit deepfakes, denial of crimes against humanity and manipulation of an automated data processing system as part of an organised group, and other offences, the office said in a statement Tuesday. Paris prosecutors have summoned Musk and former CEO Linda Yaccarino for questioning in April as part of the probe - Politico
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President Trump called in a new interview for the Republican Party to “nationalize” voting in the United States, an aggressive rhetorical step that was likely to raise new worries about his administration’s efforts to involve itself in election matters. During an extended monologue about immigration on a podcast released on Monday by Dan Bongino, his former deputy F.B.I. director, Mr. Trump called for Republican officials to “take over” voting procedures in 15 states, though he did not name them. “The Republicans should say, ‘We want to take over,’” he said. “We should take over the voting, the voting in at least many — 15 places. The Republicans ought to nationalize the voting.” Under the Constitution, American elections are governed primarily by state law, leading to a decentralized process in which voting is administered by county and municipal officials in thousands of precincts across the country. Mr. Trump, however, has long been fixated on the false claims that U.S. elections are rife with fraud and that Democrats are perpetrating a vast conspiracy to have undocumented immigrants vote and lift the party’s turnout. Mr. Trump’s remarkable call for a political party to seize the mechanisms of voting follows a string of moves from his administration to try to exert more control over American elections, as he and his allies continue to make false claims about his 2020 defeat - NYT
Hong Kong police have arrested 682 people in connection with 580 fraud and technology-related cases involving HK$620 million (almost US$80 million), mainly phone scams, online shopping fraud and job scams. The suspects include 469 men and 213 women aged 14 to 89, facing charges such as conspiracy to defraud, obtaining property by deception, and money laundering. Among them, 11 members of an online romance scam syndicate and a linked money-laundering group were arrested, aged 24 to 73. The group included three ringleaders and one key member, with two already charged with conspiracy to defraud. The romance scam gang rented industrial building units as both living quarters and scam bases. They used fake profiles on platforms to pose as young local women working overseas, claiming setbacks and suicidal thoughts to gain victims’ sympathy. Another member then impersonated the woman’s boss or an overseas police officer, announcing her death and showing forged company cards and inheritance documents. They told victims the deceased had designated them to handle or inherit assets, tricking them into paying handling fees before disappearing. The same group carried out secondary scams by posing as police officers, contacting victims to claim the case was solved, and demanding administrative fees to recover lost money. Police recorded over 300 similar romance scam cases and 62 secondary scam incidents, with total losses exceeding HK$7.4 million - HK Standard
A religious group led by the head of Donald Trump’s White House Faith Office has resorted to promoting bulk buys of the Melania Trump documentary to improve its performance. The National Faith Advisory Board, whose president is Paula White-Cain, has sent out emails encouraging group ticket sales and even private screenings of the movie, according to a report by Meidas News. “The film has moments that are funny, serious, and sad and also provides a glimpse at the history making process of transferring the White House from one First Family to another!” read one email, which also urged fans to post photographs of themselves attending the movie with the hashtag #BreakTheBoxOffice. The link to buy tickets provides two options: theater buyouts for groups of more than 30 people, or small groups of under that amount. For the former, requests are submitted through an Amazon domain. Amazon spent $75 million to purchase and promote the movie. Buying a private viewing means all seats in the theater are paid for and thus unavailable to anyone outside the group, but it does not necessarily mean each seat in the theater is physically occupied. Private viewings “typically range from $1,500–$3,000,” according to the website - The Daily Beast
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