Trump’s Peace Mirage
As ceasefires collapse from SE Asia, tensions build in Latin America and Europe reels at a Kremlin-tilting Ukraine deal, the self-styled “peacemaker” is discovering that wars don’t end on slogans
🎥 Blackouts, Drones & a Tilted Peace Deal: Inside Ukraine’s Daily Struggle | Odesa Report
Donald Trump’s self-styled identity as the world’s great peacemaker is now being stress-tested across multiple fault lines - and it is failing the test. Nowhere is that more evident than in Ukraine, where President Volodymyr Zelensky is racing between European capitals to prevent a U.S.-led peace process from hardening into a deal that would quietly reward Moscow and leave Kyiv exposed. As I said today on BBC, the danger is that we are watching diplomacy drift from mediation into managed retreat - a process shaped less by justice than by political impatience in Washington. From Europe’s growing alarm over the Donbas and security guarantees, to collapsing ceasefires in Southeast Asia, to U.S. naval muscle-flexing off Venezuela’s coast, the global landscape is flashing the same warning: while Donald Trump sells peace as a brand, conflict is multiplying in the real world — and the Ukraine file increasingly appears tilted toward the Kremlin at precisely the moment it matters most.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders seeking to ensure a US-led effort to end Russia’s war on Ukraine does not result in a lopsided deal that would reward Moscow for its aggression against its neighbor and leave Kyiv vulnerable to future attacks. Zelensky met with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in London on December 8. He was to meet with NATO chief Mark Rutte later in the day in Brussels, with senior European Union officials Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa also invited. Said Starmer: “We stand with Ukraine and if there was to be a ceasefire, it has to be a just and lasting cease-fire.” Ahead of the day of diplomacy, Zelenskyy told Bloomberg News that US-led talks on a potential peace deal have yet to produce agreement on territorial control in the eastern region known as the Donbas, where Russia demands Ukraine cede land it continues to hold despite years of attacks. “There are visions of the US, Russia and Ukraine -- and we don’t have a unified view on [the] Donbas,” Bloomberg quoted Zelensky as saying in a phone interview. He suggested it was one of several “sensitive issues,” also including security guarantees for Ukraine, that would require further discussion. At the start of the London meeting, Merz said he was “skeptical about some of the details which we are seeing in the documents coming from US side, but we have to talk about it. That’s why we are here.” Macron said it’s important to find “convergence” between the US position and views shared by Europe and Ukraine - RFE/RL
Update as of 1500 GMT: Zelensky’s talks in London with the leaders of France, Britain and Germany have ended, but little detail has emerged. French presidential sources said the talks allowed for the “continuation of the joint work on the US peace plan for Ukraine”. Work will be intensified to provide Ukraine with robust security guarantees and to plan measures for the country’s reconstruction, the Élysée sources said - France 24
France is under mounting pressure to help finance Ukraine by using €18bn of Russian sovereign assets largely immobilised at private banks whose identities Paris has kept under wraps for more than two years. The holdings have come under renewed scrutiny as the European Commission pursues a plan for a ‘reparations loan’ to Ukraine backed by Russian central bank assets under sanctions - FT
Germany’s domestic spy chief has warned that Russia could step up sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns next year when the EU’s top economy, a strong backer of Ukraine, holds several regional elections.
Sinan Selen, head of the BfV intelligence service, said in a Berlin speech that Germany was especially in Moscow’s sights because it is a central logistics hub of the NATO alliance on the continent.
Over the past month, insurance prices for ships operating in the Black Sea have nearly tripled, reports the Financial Times. The likely reason is strikes by Ukrainian special services on tankers of the Russian “shadow fleet,” which Russia uses to circumvent sanctions. According to FT sources, prices have increased the most in areas of the Black Sea adjacent to Russia, bordering Ukraine, Georgia, and Turkey. It has also become more expensive to insure vessels connected to Russia.
Live on BBC from the port city of Odesa, I break down the fast-shifting political landscape as Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Volodymyr Zelensky meet virtually with European leaders — under growing pressure from Washington’s controversial 20-plus-point “peace plan” that many here see as dangerously tilted toward the Kremlin. On the ground in Ukraine, the message is stark and unified: peace without ironclad security guarantees is not peace at all. And despite claims from Washington, I have yet to meet a single Ukrainian — from tram drivers to senior ministers — who believes this proposed deal reflects their will.
This is Europe’s split-screen moment: warm words on one screen, strategic retreat on the other — while Ukraine’s fate hangs in the balance.
👇 Watch the full analysis from Odesa
Thailand launched airstrikes along the disputed border with Cambodia on Monday (Dec 8) as both sides accused the other of breaking a ceasefire that halted fighting earlier this year. At least five people have reportedly been killed - four Cambodian civilians and one Thai soldier. The ceasefire was strained early last month after Thai troops were injured by landmines, prompting Thailand to indefinitely suspend the implementation of the agreement. Fresh fighting has prompted evacuations along the border on both sides. According to the Thai military, about 50,000 civilians across four border provinces in Thailand have been evacuated to over 300 temporary shelters. Across the border in Cambodia, opposition politician Meach Sovannara said civilians were also moving away from the fighting along the frontier. Separately, Cambodia’s influential former Prime Minister Hun Sen has expressed regret over what he said was Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s decision to renew attacks along the Thailand-Cambodia border. “I never thought that Thai Prime Minister Anutin would make such a decision. Merely for future votes, he would dare to endanger the lives of soldiers and civilians by declaring war on Cambodia, even when the Cambodian armed forces did not retaliate,” he wrote in a Facebook post - CNA
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has accused the US of using its war on drugs as an excuse to depose his socialist government and get its hands on Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. Meanwhile, Colombia’s left-wing President Gustavo Petro has said the US strikes were an attempt to “dominate” Latin America. The US has also stationed a large naval force - its largest deployment in the region in decades - along with thousands of troops. The Venezuelan army reportedly swore in more than 5,600 soldiers in one go on Saturday, in response to what military leaders called US “threats”. The same day, the Venezuelan government said that Maduro and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to resume Turkish Airlines flights between the two nations. The carrier was one of six major international airlines to have their landing licences revoked after temporarily suspending flights to Caracas over a US warning of “heightened military activity” in the area. The carrier was one of six major international airlines to have their landing licences revoked after temporarily suspending flights to Caracas over a US warning of “heightened military activity” in the area - BBC
Israeli forces have raided the headquarters of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in occupied East Jerusalem, seizing items and replacing the UN flag with Israel’s flag. In a statement on X, the agency’s commissioner-general, Philippe Lazzarini, said Israeli police, accompanied by municipal officials, forcibly entered its compound in Sheikh Jarrah early on Monday morning. “Police motorcycles, as well as trucks and forklifts, were brought in and all communications were cut. Furniture, IT equipment and other property was seized,” he said. “The UN flag was pulled down and replaced with an Israeli flag.” UNRWA has not used the building since the beginning of the year after Israeli authorities ordered the agency to vacate all of its premises and halt operations inside Israel. Lazzarini said this follows “months of harassment that included arson attacks in 2024, hateful demonstrations and intimidation, supported by a large-scale disinformation campaign, as well as anti-UNRWA legislation passed by the Israeli parliament in breach of its international obligations”. Israel barred UNRWA from operating on its soil after claiming some employees had participated in the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. UNRWA denied the allegations, while in October the International Court of Justice (ICJ) found that Israel’s allegations against UNRWA were unsubstantiated. Still, Israel’s claims prompted the United States, historically UNRWA’s largest donor, to suspend funding - Al Jazeera
China appeared to be growing its military footprint across land, air, and sea in multiple geographies. The country’s armed forces have built or upgraded several high-altitude airfields in its western regions, ostensibly part of efforts to project military power across the Himalayas — where it has a contested border with India — and in its own frontier provinces, The Wall Street Journal reported. And according to Reuters, Beijing’s navy has ramped up its deployment of naval forces across East Asian waters, including in disputed maritime territory, in an apparent show of force amid heightened tensions with Taiwan and Japan. “There’s a big outing,” one source told the outlet - Semafor
The diplomatic spat between Beijing and Tokyo escalated on Saturday after a Chinese fighter jet trained its radar on Japanese aircraft. Both sides gave conflicting accounts of the incident, which follows weeks of retaliation from China after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo might intervene if China invades Taiwan. “There is ample room for further escalation,” two CSIS experts wrote. Japan has grown frustrated at the US’ silence, the Financial Times reported. The White House’s new national security strategy, released Friday, no longer lists China as the US’ No. 1 challenge, and makes minor, but significant, linguistic shifts on its Taiwan policy that will be cheered in Beijing, analysts said.
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