The War Squeezing the World's Oil Supply
With the Strait of Hormuz in dispute, diplomats race to strike a deal before prices spiral further
The United States was waiting on Thursday for Iran to convey its response to the latest American proposal to end the war, after public messages from top-ranking officials on both sides suggested a burst of behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity. Business leaders, consumers, politicians, shipping companies and many others around the world have also been watching closely for signs of a breakthrough. The conflict, which has dragged on into a third month and prompted Iran and the United States to implement rival blockades around the Strait of Hormuz, has choked off a major oil transit route, wreaking havoc on global supply chains and causing energy prices to spike. Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said late Wednesday that his government was reviewing an American response to a 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war and would give its response to Pakistan, a key mediator. Neither Tehran nor Washington has said what the U.S. response entails. “The exchange of messages through the Pakistani intermediary is ongoing, and reviews of the exchanged texts are continuing,” Mr. Baghaei told IRIB, Iran’s state broadcaster. Earlier in the day, another Iranian official had dismissed a reported proposal to end the war as a “list of American wishes.” In a sign of further diplomatic activity on Thursday, the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, held a phone call with his Pakistani counterpart, according to brief statements from both ministries. Hours earlier, a spokesman for Pakistan’s foreign ministry said that Islamabad was optimistic about a deal, while declining to elaborate on what it would include. “We expect an agreement sooner rather than later,” the spokesman, Tahir Andrabi, told reporters. President Trump, after threatening more attacks, said on Wednesday that there had been “very good talks” with Iran, adding: “We’re in good shape, and now we’re doing well, and we have to get what we have to get.” Earlier in the day, Mr. Trump had issued a new ultimatum to Iran, threatening to restart attacks “at a much higher level and intensity” if Iran reneged on apparent concessions. He did not elaborate on what those were. The mixed signals came a day after Mr. Trump abruptly paused a new U.S. military effort to protect ships in the Strait of Hormuz, citing “great progress” in talks with Tehran. The uncertainty did little to ease concerns about the strait, the key oil and gas shipping route that Iranian forces effectively closed in retaliation after the United States and Israel began the war in late February. In the absence of any peace deal, the two sides held down a shaky cease-fire despite a standoff over the strait, with both claiming control of the waterway - NYT
Airline officials warned that fares will surge further if the Iran war does not end soon. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hit oil supplies, doubling the cost of jet fuel. US domestic flight prices were up 21% year-on-year in March, while AirAsia’s chief likened the fallout for the air travel sector to widespread shutdowns during the pandemic. The increase in costs is yet to hit bookings, but passengers are being choosier about destinations. Europe — which is close to tipping past a key fuel-supply threshold — has seen similar price increases, and thousands of flights have been cancelled. Airlines are bracing for more pain after the EU said they must reimburse passengers for those cancellations. Meanwhile, Dubai’s recently buoyant tourist sector has been devastated: Hotel occupancy was at 80% in February, but has fallen to 10% now, according to Moody’s. In total, global airlines have cut about 2 million seats from their capacity for May, the Financial Times reported - Semafor
An outbreak of hantavirus on board a cruise ship in the South Atlantic is not the start of a pandemic, the UN health agency has said. Maria van Kerkhove, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the World Health Organization (WHO), told a news briefing that it was not the same situation as six years ago with Covid-19, because hantavirus spreads through “close, intimate contact”. Health authorities are racing to trace dozens of people who have recently disembarked from the Dutch vessel MV Hondius. On Thursday, the WHO said that overall, five of eight suspected cases of hantavirus had been confirmed. Three people have died, including a 69-year-old Dutch woman, who had the virus. Her Dutch husband and a German woman also died, and their cases are being investigated. Hantavirus typically spreads from rodents - but in the latest outbreak the transmission between people was documented for the first time, the WHO said. The luxury cruise, operated by Oceanwide Expeditions, began its journey on 1 April in Ushuaia in southern Argentina, and is due to arrive soon in Spain’s Canary Islands. About 150 passengers and crew from 28 countries are reported to have initially been aboard the vessel, but dozens disembarked on the island of St Helena on 24 April. At Thursday’s news briefing, WHO’s Maria van Kerkhove said “this is not Covid, this is not influenza, it spreads very, very differently” - BBC
Former Chinese defence ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu were both sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve over graft charges, state news agency Xinhua reported, underscoring the severity of the purge in the military. Past reports in Xinhua said Li had been suspected of receiving “huge sums of money” in bribes as well as bribing others, and an investigation found he “did not fulfil political responsibilities” and “sought personnel benefits for himself and others”. An investigation launched into Wei in 2023 found that he had accepted “a huge amount of money and valuables” in bribes and “helped others gain improper benefits in personnel arrangements”, Xinhua reported in 2024, adding that his actions were “extremely serious in nature, with a highly detrimental impact and tremendous harm”. A death sentence with reprieve in China, also known as a suspended death sentence, is typically commuted to life imprisonment if the offender commits no crimes during the period of reprieve. After the commutation, they will be imprisoned for life without the possibility of further commutation or parole, Xinhua said. It added that both men were also stripped of their political rights for life, and all of their personal property will be confiscated - CNA
Russia’s Foreign Ministry is urging foreign governments and international organizations to evacuate their staff from Kyiv, warning of “inevitable” retaliatory strikes on the city if Ukrainian attacks against Russia this week disrupt annual Victory Day celebrations. In a video message released Wednesday night, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Moscow issued a formal notice to governments and organizations with a presence in the Ukrainian capital “strongly urging” preemptive evacuations due to the high probability of Russian strikes should Ukraine follow through on what she described as “criminal, terrorist designs” on May 9. “Russian diplomatic missions abroad are currently informing their host countries and international organizations of this notice,” Zakharova said. “It is not something to be ignored. It must be taken very, very seriously.” The warning comes amid rival and at times confusing ceasefire proposals from both Russia and Ukraine. Russia, as in past years, initially announced it would unilaterally observe a ceasefire on May 8-9. Ukraine later responded by proposing its own ceasefire for May 5-6. Those ceasefire announcements appear largely symbolic, with both sides signaling they do not intend to observe the other’s truce. Russia has also threatened strikes on central Kyiv if Ukraine ignores its ceasefire. Ukraine has already accused Moscow of violating the ceasefire it announced for Wednesday after several people were killed in Russian attacks across the country. For Russia, this week’s ceasefire is widely seen as an effort to shield Victory Day celebrations from any disruption. Moscow is set to hold its annual military parade, though the event has been scaled back and, for the first time in nearly two decades, will not feature military vehicles because of the ongoing threat of Ukrainian drone attacks. Authorities are also tightening mobile internet restrictions in Moscow and other cities. Russia’s Digital Development Ministry said Thursday that mobile internet will be shut down in Moscow on May 9, and only Wi-Fi and home internet connections will work - Moscow Times
Russia & Trump Allies Target Separatism in Canada’s Oil-Rich Province of Alberta
A new report warns that both Russian covert operatives and pro-Trump American actors are actively amplifying Alberta separatism in an effort to fracture Canadian unity - even as Prime Minister Mark Carney has recently downplayed foreign interference concerns during diplomatic trips to China and India.
The report, released Wednesday by DisinfoWatch and partner organizations, traces a fake website - albertaseparatist.com - to Storm-1516, a Russian influence network linked to the St. Petersburg troll farm that meddled in the 2016 U.S. election. According to CBC News, the site appeared weeks after last year’s federal election and ran articles like “The case for sovereignty over statehood” before being taken down.
Russia’s state-linked Pravda News Network has posted 67 articles about Alberta or the “51st state” since December - nearly five times its coverage of Ontario. On the American side, pro-Trump influencers and officials have openly celebrated separatism talk, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking favourably about it on television. A third interference strand - AI-generated “slopaganda” videos - was traced by CBC/Radio-Canada to Dutch economic opportunists.
This new report describes this third interference branch as “economic opportunists.” It says: “While motives and methods differ, impacts are similar: normalize separation, amplify distrust, portray Canada as internally divided and politically unstable, and create uncertainty that could deter international investment.”
The report stresses that Alberta’s political grievances are real and legitimate. The danger, its authors say, is foreign exploitation of those grievances to distort public debate and destabilize Canada’s image internationally.
What makes the warning especially striking is Canada’s broader posture toward Russia: it remains the only G7 nation that has not expelled a single Russian diplomat since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While Canada’s G7 partners have collectively expelled hundreds, Global Affairs Canada appears to have regarded its Russian diplomatic contingent as posing little threat - a stance that critics say looks increasingly hard to defend.
With Premier Danielle Smith eying an October 19 referendum, researchers are warning of a major disinformation surge in the months ahead - including false claims about vote integrity and non-citizen fraud, CBC reported. “We are in for one hell of a bumpy ride,” said lead author Marcus Kolga of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
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