The Sunday Moscow Celebrates
Lindsey Graham's death leaves Tomahawks & the sanctions bill orphaned on the Hill. In Kyiv, Svyrydenko is out as PM - but watch where she lands next. Plus: two London front pages Whitehall won't enjoy
A day of whiplash for anyone watching the Ukraine file - and I’m watching it from Odesa.
Overnight, Washington lost Senator Lindsey Graham - arguably Ukraine's fiercest advocate on the Hill, dead at 71 after a sudden illness at his Capitol Hill home. Consider the timing: he was in Kyiv with President Zelensky just 48 hours earlier - his 10th wartime visit - pushing for Tomahawks and the most sweeping Russia sanctions bill ever drafted. He was booked on Meet the Press this morning. Instead, America woke to his obituary. His death leaves a vacuum Moscow will celebrate - a sanctions bill suddenly orphaned - and with Mitch McConnell also hospitalized, Senate Republicans stripped of their senior statesmen in a single stroke.
Then, hours later, Kyiv dropped its own bombshell: President Zelensky sacked Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko after barely a year in office - the third government shake-up of the full-scale war. And with Ukraine’s ambassador to Washington, Olha Stefanyshyna, abruptly out, I’ll tell you where I think Svyrydenko lands next.
In this video: what Graham’s death means for the sanctions bill and Ukraine’s lethality debate, and the Washington chess move nobody’s connecting yet.
This is exactly the kind of moment World Briefing Plus exists for - two seismic stories breaking on the same Sunday, analyzed from the ground in Ukraine, not from a studio thousands of kilometres away. Plus subscribers get my exclusive weekly video briefings, where I connect the dots before they show up in the mainstream coverage. If today’s analysis was useful to you, consider upgrading - it’s the best way to keep independent, field-based journalism like this going. Upgrade now and don’t miss what comes next, because this week is only getting started.
The Journals: A war without end, a navy without ships
Two Sunday front pages from London that should be read together - and will make for uncomfortable breakfast reading in Whitehall.
The Independent leads with Kremlin foe Bill Browder telling Sam Kiley what many of us reporting from Ukraine have long concluded: Putin will never make peace, because compromise would ruin him - or as Browder puts it, see him “strung up.” Despite Ukraine’s punishing strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, the man in the Kremlin has no exit ramp. Peace is an existential threat to his survival; perpetual war is his life insurance policy.
Now hold that thought and turn to the Sunday Express: the UK government’s much-delayed Defence Investment Plan will phase out Royal Navy warships in favour of uncrewed systems - a move one MP on the Commons Defence Select Committee warns leaves Britain vulnerable “at a time when Russian aggression is expected to peak.” Critics call it the end of the Royal Navy as we know it. (Actually, it is a major strategic shift away from large, crewed destroyers in favor of smaller, cheaper hybrid vessels and uncrewed autonomous).
Connect the dots: the West’s own analysts say Putin cannot afford peace, NATO warns Russia could attack Europe - and one of its two nuclear-armed European powers is betting its maritime security on autonomous vessels with a relatively short track record. And all of this landing on the very weekend Ukraine lost its fiercest advocate in Washington.
News Briefs
Lindsey Graham, a Republican senator from South Carolina and a onetime opponent turned stalwart ally of President Trump who was a forceful advocate for an interventionist U.S. foreign policy, died on Saturday evening. He was 71. He died from “a brief and sudden illness,” his office said in a statement early Sunday. No further details were provided. After recently returning from a trip to Ukraine, Mr. Graham had been scheduled to appear on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday morning. A former Air Force lawyer who served in the Air Force Reserve while in Congress and was briefly deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan as a senator, Mr. Graham was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1994, before winning his Senate seat in 2002. Last month, he fended off five challengers to win the Republican primary in his bid for a fifth term. Mr. Trump offered his condolences on social media early Sunday, calling Mr. Graham “one of the greatest people and Senators I have ever known.” “He was always working, and was a true American Patriot,” Mr. Trump added. “Lindsey will be greatly missed!!!” Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina, a Republican, can immediately appoint a temporary replacement to fill Mr. Graham’s seat. Mr. Graham was set to face Annie Andrews, a Democrat and a pediatrician, in the general election in November. Mr. Graham’s death comes as another influential Republican senator, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, has spent several weeks in the hospital for undisclosed reasons. It leaves Senate Republicans without a senior lawmaker and reliable vote as they face pressure from Mr. Trump to continue advancing his legislative agenda. Mr. Graham, who made a long-shot bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination that went to Mr. Trump, consistently argued for the use of American military power overseas. He was a fierce supporter of Israel and Ukraine, making multiple trips to both countries, and he recently supported aggressive military action against Iran. He was a familiar face for many world diplomats and leaders, several of whom paid tribute to him on Sunday - NYT
FBI Director Kash Patel said the bureau has gotten involved in the aftermath of Sen. Lindsey Graham's unexpected death. While there is not currently any foul play suspected in the 71-year-old Republican senator's sudden passing, Patel said: "The FBI is assisting local authorities and has made every necessary resource available." Paramedics responded to a call for a person suffering chest pains at the Capitol Hill home owned by Graham around 8:30 p.m. on Saturday, according to police audio. Emergency personnel can later be heard saying that CPR was in progress and that a man at the house was suffering from cardiac arrest - The Daily Beast
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a major reshuffle of the government on Sunday, saying there would soon be a new prime minister and cabinet. “Ukraine is changing its political strategy,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X, adding that he had discussed the matter with current Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko. He gave no further details on the new role to be taken by Svyrydenko, who had been appointed prime minister in 2025, or her replacement. In her own post on social media, Svyrydenko said she was proud of her work in office and that she remained “ready to serve the Ukrainian state.” In Ukraine, cabinet reshuffles require parliamentary approval. Nevertheless, lawmakers have largely rallied around Zelenskyy since Russia’s invasion of the country began in February 2022, and do not typically block his agenda.
Ukrainian MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak has reported that Yuliia Svyrydenko, following her resignation as prime minister, will become ambassador to the US, while media note that current ambassador Olha Stefanishyna has requested to end her service for personal reasons. “Svyrydenko is staying on the team. But she will be ambassador to the US. All the rumours that someone had a falling out there – those are rumours.” At the same time, Interfax-Ukraine reports that Ukraine’s Ambassador to the US Olha Stefanishyna will leave the diplomatic service of her own accord, with the president satisfied with her work. According to a source, Stefanishyna requested to end her service due to personal circumstances as far back as last week - Ukrainska Pravda
Iran says “10 to 11 enemy projectiles” targeted Qeshm Island as explosions have also been reported in the port city of Bandar Abbas. This comes after CENTCOM said US forces are “positioned and prepared” to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz despite “Iranian aggression”. Iran claims attacks on Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman with missiles and suicide drones as fears rise of a return to full-scale war in the Middle East. The hostilities come after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared the Strait of Hormuz “closed until further notice” and said it fired at a ship attempting to transit through what it called an unapproved route. Separately, Joey Hood, former Director of the US Office of Iranian affairs, says the US navy cannot secure ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. “Can Trump or anyone guarantee that the strait will be free for any ship to go through without being struck? I think that’s impossible, because any soldier with a cheap drone or shoulder-fired missile could essentially hit a ship,” he told Al Jazeera. Despite that, he said the US will likely continue searching for ways to encourage ship owners to exit the strait, adding that it may resort to “tightening the economic screws” in order to “exhaust” Iran.“I think you’ll see the naval blockade coming back soon.” - Al Jazeera
The US has left more than 40 African nations without a Senate-confirmed ambassador, hampering Washington’s efforts to engage in security and diplomatic missions across the continent. Some 41 African countries currently lack a confirmed envoy, including Nigeria, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Libya, and Sudan. While there are vacancies across the diplomatic corps, the gap in Africa-specific posts is especially stark: It widened in December when the administration recalled more than a dozen career ambassadors from Africa, a move the American Foreign Service Association called “institutional sabotage.” The vacancies come as Washington negotiates high-stakes deals — like a US-brokered DRC-Rwanda peace agreement and a Libya peace deal — often through high-profile envoys like President Donald Trump’s Africa adviser, Massad Boulos, rather than resident ambassadors. “No matter how good [Boulos] is, he can’t be everywhere at once,” said Michelle Gavin, a former US ambassador to Botswana and Council on Foreign Relations fellow. Gavin said the gaps add to the chaos surrounding Trump’s visa restrictions and efforts to force African nations to take third-country migrants. The dearth also risks ceding ground to China, she argued, adding the current vacancy rate has “no modern precedent.” - Semafor
Foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) were told on Sunday by their Myanmar counterpart that detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi is in good health and would be looked after, ASEAN’s special envoy to Myanmar said. Ms Maria Theresa Lazaro, the Philippine foreign minister, has been seeking access to Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, 81, who has been detained since her elected government was ousted in a 2021 military coup. “My recollection of the statement of the Myanmar foreign minister on Aung San Suu Kyi is that she’s in good health and that the premise of how he said this is that she is a relative, she’s a sister and therefore we will take care of her,” Ms Lazaro told a press conference. Ms Aung San Suu Kyi is serving a 27-year sentence, recently commuted by one-third, on a series of charges that her allies said were fabricated to keep her out of politics, including incitement, corruption, election fraud and violations of the state secrets law. She has denied wrongdoing. Ms Aung San Suu Kyi’s whereabouts are unknown, but Ms Lazaro earlier said she had been transferred to a “designated location”, without elaborating. Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said his Myanmar counterpart, Mr Tin Maung Swe, had faced questions during Sunday’s informal meeting in Bangkok about the status of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate - CNA
The journals…..
