The Calm Before the Storm?
On Ukraine’s northwestern Black Sea coast, the sounds of war have given way—at least for now—to beach volleyball, sandcastles, and the scent of grilled shashlyk.
Videos of the Ukraine’s Security Services daylight strikes on air bases throughout Russia that destroyed many of the Kremlin’s long-range aircraft are undoubtedly now being studied in military planning rooms worldwide. Kyiv has claimed some 41 aircraft were wiped out. A popular Pro-Kremlin blogger estimated ten aircraft were destroyed. “This attack should be a wakeup call to militaries around the world,” Stacie Pettyjohn, the Director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, told RFE/RL. “In many ways, the [June 1 attack] was more effective than the ones conducted by Ukrainian long-range drones because the small drones can disperse, navigate to different targets, and precisely hit multiple targets across a large airbase,” the drone expert said. “The lynchpin of this attack was covert infiltration and operations very close to the airbases, which likely were rather lightly defended because there were few concerns about Ukraine being able to strike this deep [inside Russia],” she added.
Military air bases are protected with layered systems that often include radar to detect approaching threats, as well as missile systems and jamming devices designed to disorient radio-controlled drones. The June 1 attacks rendered nearly all such defences void. In flying from short range, the drones arrived without the warning that long-range radar can provide, and in swarms likely to overcome even missile defense systems able to shoot down such small devices. In some videos made on June 1, small arms fire can be heard as Russian servicemen apparently attempt to shoot down the quadcopters. - RFE/RL
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says he expects more prisoners of war will be exchanged with Russia following today's round of peace talks in Istanbul. Speaking after a Nato meeting in Vilnius, he reiterates support for a new set of sanctions to pressure President Vladimir Putin into agreeing to a ceasefire. The head of the Ukrainian delegation confirms Russia has now handed over a memorandum outlining its negotiation demands, saying a potential meeting between Zelensky and Putin has also been discussed. Russia says they've agreed to return the remains of 6,000 soldiers and offered a two to three day ceasefire on certain parts of the frontline to facilitate the collection of the bodies
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has warned Donald Trump that the U.S. is being “played” by Russian President Vladimir Putin as he leads a bipartisan push to cripple the Kremlin with America’s toughest sanctions yet. As the White House drags its feet on Russia despite its ongoing aggression against Ukraine, the traditional Trump ally has joined forces with Democrat Senator Richard Blumenthal and dozens of other Republicans and Democrats to push for 500 percent tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, gas, and uranium. Graham has suggested that the sanctions bill could be considered in the Senate as early as this week due to the lack of progress in achieving a ceasefire in Ukraine. If eventually passed, it would target nations like China and India, which account for roughly 70 per cent of Russia’s energy trade and bankroll much of its war effort - Daily Beast
Prime Minister Keir Starmer of Britain vowed Monday to bring his country to “war-fighting readiness,” announcing plans to build up to 12 new attack submarines and invest billions of pounds in weapons, to fortify for a world caught between a hostile, aggressive Russia and a retrenching United States. The ambitious rearmament is part of a strategic defense review by the government, which laid out the threatening new landscape and called for increased production of drones and the stockpiling of more munitions and equipment. “The threat we now face is more serious, more immediate and more unpredictable than at any time since the Cold War,” Mr. Starmer said on Monday at a shipyard in Glasgow. He pointed to “war in Europe, new nuclear risks, daily cyberattacks,” and “growing Russian aggression,” in British waters and skies. The strategic review was set up last year soon after Mr. Starmer won a general election. But its task was given fresh urgency amid growing evidence of President Trump’s weakened commitment to European security and his ambivalent and, at times, ingratiating attitude toward President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Among its recommendations: the procurement of up to 7,000 British-built long-range weapons and the creation of a new cyber-command, alongside an investment of a billion pounds, equivalent to $1.35 billion, in digital capability. Money will be invested in protecting critical British underwater infrastructure as well as in drones, which have proved highly effective in the war in Ukraine - NYT
Catch my interview on CNN today, where I unpack the talks in Istanbul as well as the impact of Ukraine’s audacious drone attack on several Russian military airfields.
U.S. President Donald Trump acquired another powerful European ally after Karol Nawrocki’s victory in Sunday’s Polish presidential election. It’s terrible news for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose domestic reform agenda is now in tatters after the failure of liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski to win the presidency, defeated 50.89 percent to 49.11 percent by Nawrocki. Getting Trzaskowski into the ornate presidential palace in downtown Warsaw that once housed Russian governors was crucial to Tusk’s hopes of restoring rule of law and powering ahead with a domestic agenda that included everything from reform of the social security system to changes to hot-button social issues like allowing same-sex partnerships and loosening Poland’s draconian abortion rules. Perhaps most worryingly for Poland’s government, a win for Trzaskowski was also meant to offer certainty over Poland’s access to billions of euros of EU funds. Nawrocki’s victory now raises questions about this financial lifeblood as he is likely to block key judicial reforms. “Tusk’s reform agenda is, if not dead in the water, then at least dying,” said Ben Stanley, an associate professor at the Center for the Study of Democracy at the SWPS University in Warsaw. Nawrocki joins other Central European populists such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico who are skeptical about the EU, keen on Trump and his vision of destroying traditional elites and unleashing culture wars, and lukewarm toward Ukraine and its fight for survival against Russia - Politico
“(Polish Prime Minister Donald) Tusk’s reform agenda is, if not dead in the water, then at least dying,” - Ben Stanley, associate professor at the Center for the Study of Democracy
On Tuesday voters in South Korea will go to the polls exactly six months after President Yoon Suk Yeo sparked political chaos when he tried to impose martial law last December. The winner is set to take office the day after the nation heads to the polls. Monday was the final day of campaigning. The front-runner is Lee Jae-myung of the left-leaning opposition Democratic Party, trailed by Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party (which Yoon left last month). Polls show former party leader Lee with a nearly 50% support rate. This election will be his second attempt to win the presidency after he lost to Yoon in the 2022 race. Lee has softened his hardline stance on Japan, but concerns linger in Tokyo that warming ties could chill again under Seoul's next leader. Kim, who served as labor minister under Yoon, argues that the country would fall into dictatorship with a victory by Lee, whose party holds a majority in the National Assembly. Voters are seeking a leader who can address weak economic growth and restore political stability - Nikkei Asia
Germany's former foreign minister Annalena Baerbock was appointed president of the United Nations General Assembly on Monday, following an election in which she ran unopposed. Baerbock, who was elected to the position with a simple majority, will take the top job at the assembly — a role of primarily ceremonial significance that largely involves organising plenary sessions among the body's 193 represented countries. Russia, which was opposed to Baerbock's nomination, asked for a secret ballot on Monday, but the vote was considered a formality in the run-up to her election. She will be inaugurated on 9 September, shortly before the UN General Assembly holds its general debate, and will have the post for one year - Euronews
A suspect is in custody after what the FBI is calling a "targeted act of violence" during a peaceful march in support of Israeli hostages in Boulder, Colorado, on Sunday. Witnesses said the suspect used a "makeshift flamethrower" and threw Molotov cocktails that burned multiple victims, police and the FBI said. Boulder police say eight people were injured. The suspect was identified as 45-year-old Mohamed Sabry Soliman, FBI Special Agent in Charge Mike Michalek said Sunday evening. Soliman was allegedly heard yelling "Free Palestine" during the attack, according to Michalek, who said that it was "clear this is a targeted act of violence" and it is being investigated as an act of terrorism. Soliman has been charged with multiple felony counts, including attempted murder, and a federal hate crimes charge. Soliman is an Egyptian national, government officials confirmed to CBS Colorado. He arrived in California in 2022 on a non-immigrant visa, the Department of Homeland Security said. That original visa expired in February 2023, and he had applied for asylum. Soliman had recently been living in Colorado Springs - CBS News
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