The Art of the Chokepoint
Trump’s blockade gamble meets Iran’s “Tehran Toll Booth” - as both sides squeeze the Strait of Hormuz and test a collapsing truce
Breaking News 20:30GMT: Orbán’s 16-year rule over Hungary ends in crushing election defeat
The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is at an end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. The EU’s most autocratic leader — a close ally of both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — was on course to lose by a decisive margin in Sunday’s vote. With more than 53 percent of the vote counted, his opponent Péter Magyar looked set to win 136 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Orbán’s Fidesz party was on track to win only 56. Magyar announced on Facebook at 9. 12 p.m. that: “Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has just called to congratulate us on our victory.” If that margin of victory holds, Magyar will secure a supermajority that will allow him to unravel key features of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” — demolishing the prime minister’s tight control over the judiciary, state companies and the media. Orbán’s departure will come as a huge relief to the EU, whose systemic weaknesses he has exposed and exploited for years, most recently by helping Putin block €90 billion of European support to Ukraine. A heavy loss for the Hungarian premier will also deliver a painful blow to Trump’s MAGA movement, which has viewed Hungary’s prime minister as a talismanic trailblazer for its own brand of anti-immigrant, Christian-oriented nationalism - Politico
Orbán’s rival, Péter Magyar, said that his government would extradite Polish fugitives—former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro and his ex-deputy Marcin Romanowski—both sheltered by Orbán—on day one in office. Magyar added they may flee to Minsk or Moscow, hinting Orbán could, too - Szabolcs Panyi via Twitter
With 66 percent of votes counted, the opposition Tisza party was on course to win 137 seats — more than a two-thirds majority — with Mr. Orban’s party, Fidesz, expected to win just 55 - NYT
“The consequences of the outcome reach far beyond Hungary’s borders. They could help alter the course of the war in Ukraine, a neighbor that Mr. Orban has cast as an enemy of Hungary, and affect European security. They will also be looked at by populists around the world who view the Hungarian leader as a model of success and of pugnacious defiance of the mainstream” - NYT
President Trump said Sunday that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up pressure on Iran after marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough. The announcement by Mr. Trump plunged the already brittle truce into further uncertainty. Vice President JD Vance and the chief Iranian negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, met in Pakistan over the weekend, but did not reach a deal to fully reopen the strait or conclusively end the war. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Mr. Trump wrote of his planned naval blockade in one of two lengthy social media posts on the talks. It was not immediately clear whether the threat would endanger the two-week cease-fire reached on April 7. Mr. Trump had conditioned the pause on Iran fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas in the Persian Gulf. Mr. Trump’s blockade threat came hours after Mr. Vance left the talks in Islamabad — the highest-level face-to-face encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — after telling reporters that Iran had “chosen not to accept our terms.” Mr. Ghalibaf said on social media that the United States had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation” in this round of talks. Analysts said the issues dividing the two countries were so complex — and their differences so entrenched — that cinching a deal in a single round of talks had been highly unlikely. The key differences center on the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, frozen Iranian revenues held abroad, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. Iran’s leaders have given no indication that they intend to relax their control of the waterway, which they view as a crucial bargaining chip, until a permanent peace is reached. In a defiant post on social media earlier on Sunday, Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said “the key” to the strait “is firmly in our hands.” Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Ghalibaf, the Iranian negotiator, appeared to rule out additional negotiations. Mr. Trump said in an interview on Sunday with Fox News that his threats had forced Iran “to the bargaining table and they haven’t left,” adding that he believed the United States would eventually get “everything” it wanted from Iran - NYT
Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait. Ships seeking to avoid the Iranian-declared hazardous area must transit Iranian territorial waters.Iran then shakes down these merchant ships by extracting “protection fees.” These “protection” fees protect ships from Iranian attacks. This protection racket is illegal under maritime law. No state bordering a strait is permitted to restrict traffic or extract fees under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Unspecified US officials told the New York Times on April 11 that Iran laid its mines—of which there are reportedly fewer than a dozen, according to a previous March 23 report—” haphazardly,” which has prevented Iran from locating or removing them. These mines may or may not be in the 1,394 sq km “hazardous area.” The threat of mines also enables Iran to keep the price of oil and shipping insurance as high as possible for as long as possible without conducting attacks that would cause the ceasefire to collapse. Iran may calculate that the high price of oil and shipping insurance would cause the United States to cave on some of Iran’s demands. The United States is attempting to undermine Iran’s ability to use the threat of mines in the “hazardous area” by using US Navy destroyers to prove that the normal traffic separation scheme is safe and viable for traffic. Iran can only use the threat of mines to keep these costs high if the fear of mines persists. US President Donald Trump said on April 11 that the United States is “starting the process of clearing out” the strait. Arleigh Burke-Class destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited the Strait to clear the Strait of naval mines. US CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that the US Navy will share the route of safe passage with civilian shipping as soon as possible. Such a move would undermine Iran’s threats and badly damage its leverage in negotiations. The Qatari Transport Ministry announced later on April 11 that it will resume operations ”for all types of maritime vessels and ships” between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM local time on April 12 -ISW
Ukraine and Russia again accused each other of violating an Orthodox Easter truce, with both sides alleging thousands of attacks and other violations. With Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine well into its fifth year and the spring fighting season ramping up, Kyiv and Moscow had agreed to a 36-hour cease-fire coinciding with the Orthodox holiday, which began at midnight April 12. But both Russian and Ukrainian forces reported hundreds of incidents in the hours after the truce was supposed to take effect, on April 11. As of the morning of April 12, Ukraine’s military said it had tallied nearly 2,300 “violations” -- including “enemy assault activity, shelling, attack drone strikes.” There were no missile strikes, guided aerial bomb strikes, or attacks by kamikaze drones, the military said in a post to Facebook. Russia's Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of nearly 2,000 violations of its own over the previous 16 hours, including artillery or tank shelling , drone strikes, and "various types of munitions" dropped by drones - RFE/RL
From one war zone to another — in the span of days.
Today’s World Briefing: a rare Easter calm in Odesa after a brutal week of strikes… and why these “pauses” rarely last.
I’ve reported from two theatres of war in just one week - so you don’t have to.
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An Air India flight to Vancouver turned back after nearly eight hours when the airline realized it had deployed a Boeing 777-200LR without clearance to enter Canada. The issue was discovered over Chinese airspace, forcing the aircraft to return to Delhi. Only Air India’s 777-300ER fleet is currently approved for Canada operations - Spot Next India
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau turned Coachella into their own little love fest ... and they’re not even trying to hide it. The pop star and former Canadian Prime Minister were spotted getting cozy during a desert date night at Coachella ... cuddling up, holding hands and basically giving “locked in” energy all over the festival grounds. Katy even gave fans a peek, dropping an Instagram carousel captioned ... “heat checkin’ these chickens,” showing the couple snacking, strolling and staying glued to each other throughout the night. Katy kept it casual in a white tee and shorts with a hoodie tied around her waist, while Trudeau rocked jeans, a white tee and a backwards Montreal Alouettes cap. The two have been dating since Summer 2025, keeping things mostly low-key. Between the hand-holding, the cuddling and the festival date night vibes, it’s pretty clear these two are still going strong. Coachella might be about the music -- but Katy and Justin are out here making it about the romance - TMZ
The journals….
