The Middle East’s separate crises are beginning to fuse into a single supply shock.
In roughly thirty-six hours, the Houthis seized Mokha and Mayun Island at the mouth of the Red Sea; Iranian strikes damaged American aircraft at a base in Jordan; two vessels were hit off Oman; Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz; and oil surged.
Any one of those events would normally command a market’s attention. The problem is that they are happening at once — and they are attacking the escape routes built to compensate for one another.
That is the story today: the Middle East is running out of workarounds.
Yemen. The Houthis have seized Mokha and Mayun Island, dramatically expanding their control of Yemen's Red Sea coast and giving them positions astride the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb. Military spokesman Yahya Saree told Al Jazeera that Saudi-backed forces were pushed out of six districts, and that navigation remains safe for all shipping except Saudi vessels — a carve-out that is itself the threat. Yemen’s internationally recognised government says its army has begun striking a designated “kill box” near Mokha.
Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has shut the East-West Pipeline, which carries crude from the Eastern Province to Yanbu on the Red Sea and is the main way around Hormuz. The foreign ministry says drones launched from Iraq were responsible and that it is holding off retaliation to let Baghdad act. Gulf News reports satellite imagery and NASA thermal-anomaly data southeast of Medina raising the possibility of a Houthi strike, with no independent confirmation. Civil Defence has activated early warning in Abha and Khamis Mushait.
Jordan. CBS News, citing people with direct knowledge, reports Iranian strikes on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base damaged several US aircraft — an A-10 lost a wing, and about eight F-15s took light damage and returned to service. No American deaths reported. The military significance extends beyond the damaged aircraft: more than 30 Patriot interceptors were reportedly fired defending the base, further drawing down precisely the defensive stockpile Washington has been worrying about.
Oman / Hormuz. Four projectiles struck two vessels about four nautical miles west of Khasab late Thursday, setting one alight (UKMTO Warning 133-26). Iran’s Foreign Ministry says a regional meeting on Hormuz shipping convenes in Oman on Monday with Iraq and Gulf states.
Washington. Al Arabiya reports, citing sources, that Trump has told Mohammed bin Salman the US will supply intelligence and targeting assistance, with CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper now in the kingdom. A senior administration official frames the posture as protecting freedom of navigation while regional partners lead.
Why it matters: The oil price is almost secondary to what markets are beginning to price: the disappearance of optionality.
For months, every Middle East disruption came with an answer. Hormuz becomes dangerous? Move Saudi crude west through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu. The Gulf becomes difficult? Use the Red Sea. One shipping lane closes? Pay more, reroute and keep the cargo moving.
Those workarounds are now being attacked simultaneously.
The Houthis have taken Mokha and Mayun at the entrance to Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia has shut the pipeline built to bypass Hormuz. Ships are being struck off Oman. And Washington is supplying targeting intelligence as the fighting spreads.
That changes the calculation. Markets are no longer pricing a temporary blockage at one chokepoint. They are pricing systemic inflexibility — the possibility that the spare routes, excess capacity and logistical detours designed to absorb a shock may themselves become part of the battlefield.
Hormuz was the problem. The Red Sea was the workaround.
Now both are contested.
President Vladimir Putin arrived in India early Friday for a three-day visit to attend the BRICS leaders’ summit and deepen strategic ties with New Delhi. On Friday afternoon, Putin met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for bilateral talks focused on trade and energy. Sources cited by Indian media said the two leaders would discuss expanding Russian-Indian trade to $100 billion by 2030, supported by increasing cooperation in rail transit, steel production, critical minerals, fertilizers and nuclear energy. The Kremlin said earlier this week that the possible sale of Russian Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighter jets to India is also on the agenda. A delegation of more than 300 Russian executives is accompanying Putin to New Delhi to negotiate supply chains and food security contracts. Putin is scheduled to give a speech at the BRICS business forum later on Friday. The main plenary session of the bloc’s leaders will take place on Saturday, followed by an expanded session the following day with partner states and international organizations. BRICS was created in 2009 as a forum for major emerging economies seeking greater influence in global affairs. BRICS has since expanded beyond its original group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa to include Ethiopia, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran and the UAE. This year’s BRICS summit seeks to lift the bloc’s global profile even as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran splits its members, with Tehran and Abu Dhabi on opposing sides of the conflict. - Moscow Times
The European Union is set to provide Ukraine with €6.1 billion in additional assistance to help the war-weary country purchase military equipment, notably the Patriot interceptors badly needed to shoot down Russia's devastating ballistic missiles. The funding, announced on Friday, will come from the bloc’s €90 billion support loan, which reserves €28.3 billion for military aid and €16.7 billion for budget aid this year. The loan’s “Made In Europe” requirement will be lifted to procure Patriots, which are made in the United States, and drones, which depend on Chinese components. The newly allocated €6.1 billion represents the final allocation under the €28.3 billion envelope. Payments are being made in gradual instalments after Brussels checks and verifies the contracts that Kyiv signs with private companies. So far, €8.35 billion in defence funding has been wired. The news comes as allies race to supply Ukraine with air defence systems as Russia escalates its bombing campaign, including through jet-powered drones, ahead of a winter that EU officials expect to be the harshest yet of the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimates his army will need about 300 Patriot interceptors to make it through the winter safely - Euronews
Tuesday’s shutdown of British airspace was set off by flight data entered by a UK military aircraft, the FT reports on its Saturday front page. Four people briefed on the incident told the paper the flight plan began a chain of events that closed Britain’s skies for hours and triggered a wider air traffic control meltdown, which took several attempts to restart. The FT calls the data spurious. Two others briefed on the matter said the military origin had no specific bearing on what followed; the MoD declined to comment. Transport secretary Heidi Alexander summoned NATS chief executive Martin Rolfe on Wednesday, said the outage was not unavoidable, and demanded a review within a week. Only the NATS board can remove him, though the government can withdraw support — and with the Civil Aviation Authority’s own investigation six months out, next week’s review is the decisive document. One person close to the process told the FT that Rolfe is “toast.” Airlines say they were assured a 2023 NATS failure would not recur; one executive told the paper the recommendations were described as fully implemented but the evidence was never shown. Travellers faced delays of up to ten hours, with schedules recovering only by Friday.
Standing in the town that sheltered thousands of stranded Americans after the Sept. 11 attacks, former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien marked the 25th anniversary Friday with a pointed message for the United States: “Never mistake our generosity for weakness.” The 92-year-old former leader, who was prime minister at the time of the attacks, drew a standing ovation after telling his “American friends” that Canadians may be tolerant and kind but “we bow to no one.” U.S. Ambassador to Canada Pete Hoekstra rose afterward and hugged him. “I say that not in anger, but as one friend to another,” Chrétien said. “Friends need to be honest with each other.” The unusually blunt remarks came during a solemn ceremony honoring the nearly 3,000 people killed in New York, at the Pentagon and aboard Flight 93, and remembering Gander’s extraordinary response to the attacks. Gander, Newfoundland opened its arms to nearly 6,600 airline passengers diverted there when the U.S. government shut down airspace during 9/11. The remarks came at a striking moment in Canada-U.S. relations. The longtime allies are embroiled in a trade war under U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly talked about making Canada the 51st U.S. state - AP
The journals….
