Russia’s Escalation Should Be ‘Game Over’ for Putin
From the missile-drone barrage that killed at least 25 in Ternopil to laser attacks on RAF pilots, Moscow is daring the West to stay timid. The only credible answer: give Ukraine everything it needs
WORLD BRIEFING HOT TAKE: After a night of mass missile and drone strikes that killed civilians across Ukraine - including in Ternopil, the birthplace of Ukrainian nationalism - G20 leaders can no longer hide behind platitudes. Moscow is daring the world to stay timid. It’s time to give Ukraine everything it needs to win.
Russia isn’t just testing Ukraine’s defences — it’s testing the world’s resolve.
From the G20 summit here in South Africa, I told the BBC that Moscow is pushing every conceivable button to provoke, intimidate, and paralyze Western decision-making. Last night’s nationwide assault — more than 470 drones and 48 missiles — wasn’t random. It was strategic, symbolic, and deeply personal for millions in the Ukrainian diaspora.
One of the hardest-hit areas, Ternopil, is where my own parents were born — and where countless diaspora families trace their roots. This region has long been the beating heart of Ukrainian nationalism, the place Moscow would most like to see erased from the map. Make no mistake: targeting it is not a coincidence. It is psychological warfare designed to demoralise, divide, and terrorise.
And yet, the timing of this brazen assault - as G20 leaders gather - is also deliberate. Russia wants to demonstrate that it can slaughter civilians, blackout half a country, and menace NATO airspace with near-impunity. It wants the world to look away or fall back into “strongly worded statement” mode.
But perhaps - just perhaps - this moment will jolt G20 leaders out of their geopolitical stupor. Yet don’t bet on it. Sources tell me that, despite pressure from civil society groups, the war in Ukraine is unlikely to appear in the final declaration at all — let alone any meaningful condemnation of Russia. It’s the kind of diplomatic evasiveness that emboldens Moscow and endangers everyone else.
The message could not be clearer: the time for half-measures is over. Ukraine needs everything now — money, weapons, air defences — to push back a regime that thrives on escalation and devastation.
If world leaders leave Johannesburg without recognising the urgency of this moment, Moscow will take it as an invitation to escalate further. The birthplace of Ukrainian identity is under direct attack. What more needs to happen before the world acts?
In my live BBC interview from the G20 summit in Johannesburg, I opened with three words to describe Russia’s overnight attacks on Ukraine: “Horrible, horrible, horrible.” As of airtime, 25 people were dead, including 3 children, and 73 injured, among them 15 children — the deadliest single attack on western Ukraine since the war began in February 2022. One of the worst-hit areas: Ternopil — the birthplace of Ukrainian nationalism, and where my own parents, along with millions in the Ukrainian diaspora, trace their roots. Make no mistake: this is deliberate. Putin has long held deep disdain for western Ukraine, and these strikes are part of a broader psychological and military escalation. And it didn’t stop there. On the very same day, a Russian spy ship lurked just off UK territorial waters — reportedly mapping undersea cables and even endangering RAF pilots. This is hybrid warfare in real time. I told the BBC that words from Western leaders no longer matter to Mr. Putin. What’s required now is action: Give Ukraine everything it has asked for — weapons, cash, air defences. And send a clear signal: there must be consequences. With G20 leaders about to descend on Johannesburg, I said plainly: If this doesn’t shake them awake, I don’t know what will.
At least 25 people were killed and dozens injured in Ukraine from a massive wave of Russian drone and missile strikes that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called a “brazen attack on ordinary life.” Ukrainian media reported that blasts were heard early on November 19 across the Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Rivne, Lviv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions as the attacks targeted eastern and western Ukraine. Ukrainian Emergency Services said two high-rise apartment buildings were hit in the city of Ternopil, leaving at least 19 dead and 66 injured -- including 16 children. “Every brazen attack against ordinary life proves that the pressure on Russia is still insufficient,” Zelenskyy said in a post on X. It is confirmed that Russia launched more than 470 attack drones and 48 missiles of various types against Ukraine overnight – one ballistic and the rest cruise missiles. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said the strikes caused emergency power outages in several regions, with repair crews working to restore electricity where possible. Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities as the winter months approach, leading to fears of power shortages amid the likely freezing weather. Moscow has also regularly struck Ukrainian civilian areas, although it denies it targets such sites. The Russian attack on Ukraine’s western regions prompted a swift response from neighboring Poland. The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces confirmed that fighter jets and early-warning aircraft were scrambled due to Russia’s strikes near the Polish border. The Polish Air Navigation Services Agency reported the brief closure of the airports in Rzeszow and Lublin in southeastern Poland “to ensure the freedom of military aviation operations.” - RFE/RL
UK Defence Minister John Healey said that a Russian spy ship called Yantar is on the edge of British waters and had been mapping undersea cables, and shining lasers at RAF pilots, which he said was “highly dangerous”. He said: My message to Russia and to Putin is this: We see you. We know what you’re doing. And if the Yantar travels south this week, we are ready. Asked about this in the Q&A, Healey says this is the first time Yantar has done this. The government is taking it extremely seriously. He says he has changed the terms of engagement, so that the UK can follow it more closely when it is in British waters. He says he will not give details, but he says the government has “military options ready”. - The Guardian
Fitful US efforts to end the Ukraine war appeared to gain renewed momentum, though questions persisted over Russia’s willingness to countenance peace.
A top US envoy is set to meet Ukraine’s president in Turkey in a bid to revive stalled talks between Kyiv and Moscow. But Russian President Vladimir Putin showed little interest in compromise during a meeting with China’s premier, and overnight strikes on Ukraine killed nine people, while Romania said it scrambled fighter jets over a purported Russian drone incursion - Semafor
The new Trump plan to end the war in Ukraine would grant Russia parts of eastern Ukraine it does not currently control, in exchange for a U.S. security guarantee for Ukraine and Europe against future Russian aggression, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios. Ukraine and its backers would see that as an enormous concession to Russia. The White House view, according to the U.S. official, is that Ukraine is likely to lose the territory anyways if the war continues and “therefore it is in Ukraine’s interest to reach a deal now.” The two thorniest issues in the Ukraine talks up to now have been who will control what territory once the war is over, and how Ukraine can be assured that Russia won’t simply resume the war at a later date. The 28-point Trump plan calls for Russia to gain full de facto control of Luhansk and Donetsk (together referred to as the Donbas), despite Ukraine still controlling around 14.5% of the territory there, per the latest analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. Despite being under Russian control, the areas in Donbas from which Ukraine would withdraw would be considered a demilitarized zone, with Russia not able to position troops there. In two other war-torn regions, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the current lines of control would mostly be frozen in place, with Russia returning some land, subject to negotiations - Axios
Meanwhile, a German government spokesperson warned that the situation in Ukraine is very tense due to Russia’s ongoing attacks, and Kyiv urgently needs help with its defence from partners, Reuters reported. “Russia’s unabated attacks are putting Ukraine under immense pressure, and all the more reason for Ukraine’s supporters to assist the country in its defence,” the government spokesperson said at a government news conference in Berlin.
Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak is facing growing pressure for his dismissal or resignation as a high-level corruption investigation gathers pace. The corruption investigation dogging Ukraine’s leadership concerns allegations that funds earmarked for building defenses to protect Ukraine’s vulnerable energy infrastructure from Russian air attacks were siphoned off in the form of kickbacks to political insiders. An unelected appointee, Yermak is perhaps the Ukrainian president’s most trusted political ally. In recent years, Yermak has accumulated significant political influence behind the scenes. “Yermak is his top aide, his chief administrator, the main button on Zelenskyy’s control panel. They’ve become fused together like Siamese twins,” Volodymyr Fesenko, head of the Penta Center for Political Studies in Kyiv, told RFE/RL on November 19.
A group of Africa experts said the upcoming G20 meeting in Johannesburg should focus on debt refinancing for low-income countries hit by soaring debt payments. The panel said developing nations needed immediate debt relief, with interest payments ballooning in recent years amid rising inflation. While developing countries’ debt remains moderate compared to wealthier nations, their government revenues are far smaller and their interest rates far higher, meaning they spend a huge share of their national income servicing debt. Unless these burdens are eased, Africa will never exploit its potential, a former Ethiopian prime minister said. This G20 “will long be remembered for its determination — or for its failure — to rise to the challenge,” Hailemariam Desalegn Boshe wrote - Semafor
In what has become a not-so-mini domestic political irritant for G20 host, President Cyril Ramaphosa, his navy chief, Vice Admiral Monde Lobese, said that South Africa’s seas were at risk. “We cannot continue to be silent observers while our country is being taken to the dogs. We need to advocate for a stronger, well-resourced defence force; we need to think about what is at stake for not having the navy present at sea.” He said that he often finds himself questioning whether those responsible may be directly or indirectly influenced by drug cartels, illegal traders, maritime criminals, and human traffickers. Later, on Metro FM Radio, commentators said the alleged disregard for coastal defence was cause for the immediate removal of Ramaphosa from office. Minister of Defence and Military Veterans Angie Motshekga called Lobese’s remarks as “an unfortunate outburst.”
Donald Trump welcomed crown prince Mohammed bin Salman to Washington on Tuesday, in the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia’s first White House visit since the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents in Istanbul. The shocking murder caused global outrage and appeared to set the Gulf kingdom on a path to international pariah status. In 2021 US intelligence concluded that bin Salman had approved the capture or killing of Khashoggi, a fierce critic of the Saudi regime. The crown prince has denied ordering the operation but acknowledged responsibility as the kingdom’s de facto ruler. Seven years on, that shocking murder seemed a distant memory, as MBS arrived to a lavish display including fanfare, a US Marine band and a military flyover as he stepped onto the South Lawn of the White House to meet Trump. Talking to reporters in the Oval Office, the US president brushed off questions from a reporter about MBS’s role in Khashoggi’s killing, saying “things happen”. “You’re mentioning somebody that was extremely controversial,” Trump said of the murdered columnist, before going on to contradict US intelligence on the Saudi crown prince’s role in the affair. “A lot of people didn’t like that gentleman that you’re talking about. Whether you like him, or didn’t like him, things happen. But he [bin Salman] knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that.” While Trump castigated the reporter for the question, a calm MBS said:“It’s painful and it’s a huge mistake, and we are doing our best that this doesn’t happen again.” - The Guardian
Two Miss Universe judges have resigned days before the annual beauty pageant, with one of them accusing organisers of rigging the selection process. Lebanese-French musician Omar Harfouch, who announced his resignation from the eight-member jury on Instagram, alleged that an “impromptu jury” had pre-selected finalists ahead of the competition, set to be held on Friday in Thailand. Hours later, French football manager Claude Makélélé also announced he’d pulled out, citing “unforeseen personal reasons”. The resignations come two weeks after several Miss Universe contestants walked out of a pre-pageant event over controversial comments made by an official from host nation Thailand. “An impromptu jury has been formed to select 30 finalists from among the 136 participating countries, without the presence of any of the real [eight] members of the jury, including me,” Mr Harfouch wrote in an Instagram post on Tuesday, saying he had discovered this via social media. The unofficial jury comprises “individuals with a significant potential conflict of interest due to some personal relationships with some of the Miss Universe contestants”, he claimed. Mr Harfouch did not elaborate on how this “impromptu jury” would function, or how it would override the official jury’s decision - BBC
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