Peace Talks in a Fracturing World
As Washington and Europe debate binding guarantees for Ukraine, power politics elsewhere complicate an already perilous path to peace
World Briefing — Introduction (Breaking News)
Breaking late this evening: Downing Street says Britain will deploy forces to Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia, following the signing of a “declaration of intent” by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer alongside France. The move represents one of the clearest - and most consequential- Western commitments yet to Ukraine’s post-war security.
According to the statement, the UK and France would form a “Multinational Force for Ukraine,” described as a reassurance force designed to bolster security guarantees and support the regeneration of Ukraine’s own armed forces. Post-ceasefire, London and Paris would establish military hubs across Ukraine, build protected facilities for weapons and equipment, help secure Ukraine’s skies and seas, and create the legal framework for Western troops to operate on Ukrainian soil. Starmer called it a “vital part of our iron cast commitment” to stand with Ukraine for the long term. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called it “a huge step forward…But it is still not enough.”
The significance is hard to overstate - but so is the caveat. Every element of this plan is contingent once a ceasefire being reached, the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reminded journalists.
There is no indication that Russia would ever accept an agreement that allows Western forces to be based in Ukraine. On the contrary, Moscow has repeatedly framed the presence of NATO-linked troops on Ukrainian territory as a red line and a casus belli.
The announcement highlights the paradox at the heart of the current moment. Even as Ukraine’s partners sketch out the architecture of post-war security, Russian drones and missiles continue to strike Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. At the same time, Washington’s muscular actions elsewhere - from Venezuela and beyond - are accelerating a global shift toward hard power and spheres of influence. Only this week, Donald Trump repeated his desire to take over Greenland. We are entering (Re-entering?) a worrisome era where ‘ might is right.’ Ukraine’s path to peace is becoming clearer in outline, but no less perilous in reality - and it is unfolding in a world that is fracturing fast.
Europe and the U.S. stand ready to commit to “legally binding” security guarantees to support Ukraine in the event of a peace settlement with Russia, according to a draft statement seen by POLITICO. The plan, which needs to be approved by Washington and leaders who gathered in Paris on Tuesday, sets out security guarantees that would include participation in U.S.-led ceasefire monitoring, long-term support for the Ukrainian army, the deployment of a multinational force in Ukraine in case of a peace settlement, and commitments to support Ukraine should there be a future Russian attack. If agreed, this statement would be one of the strongest signs yet of U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s security. Leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met American envoys and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris to clinch a plan to provide Ukraine with robust security guarantees, with Washington’s support. The U.S. and Europeans will play a “vital and closely coordinated role” in the provision of security guarantees, according to the draft statement. “Welcoming the confirmation that the United States is ready to play a decisive role to participate in the future security of Ukraine, we stand ready to commit to a system of politically and legally binding guarantees,” the document says. According to the document, Washington would deploy a “continuous, reliable ceasefire monitoring” system in Ukraine and a special committee would be set up to address ceasefire breaches. A multinational force that is “European-led, with U.S. participation” would be deployed in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal with Russia. The U.S. would contribute support in the form of intelligence and logistics as well as a commitment to back the force if it is attacked. On military support — “the first line of defense” for Kyiv — signatories agree to “long term defense packages,” financing and budget support and “practical and technical support to Ukraine in building defensive fortifications,” the statement says. The level of detail in the document illustrates significant progression in recent weeks, with European governments having long called for a U.S. backstop to guarantee lasting peace in Ukraine. In December, Europeans sounded upbeat about the potential for a peace deal after U.S. officials offered “NATO-style” security guarantees at a meeting in Berlin. But there is no indication yet that Russia would agree to a peace deal with such conditions attached.
Russia launched its latest barrage on civilian and infrastructure targets across Ukraine killing two and injuring others. Ukraine’s Air Force said Russia launched 61 drones across several Ukrainian regions. It added that its air defences shot down 53 UAVs. Another eight managed to reach their targets, hitting six locations in the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Sumy regions. Regional authorities said one person was killed in Zaporizhzhia over the past day, and one more in Donetsk. In Zaporizhzhia, three police officers were injured after a Russian strike hit their vehicle, according to Ivan Fedorov, head of the region’s military administration - Euronews
Eight of Europe’s top leaders have rallied to defend the autonomous Danish territory of Greenland amid growing threats from President Donald Trump’s administration that the U.S. could seize the mineral-rich Arctic island. In a statement, the European leaders insisted Greenland’s security must be ensured collectively by NATO and with full respect to the wishes of its people. “Security in the Arctic must be ... achieved collectively, in conjunction with NATO allies including the United States by upholding the principles of the UN Charter, including sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of borders,” the leaders wrote in a statement hours after Trump said Washington “needs” Greenland. The statement was signed by Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. The show of support for Denmark comes after Trump doubled down on his claims to the Danish-held territory following a U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. On Monday, White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller questioned Copenhagen’s claim over the territory - Politico
President Donald Trump on Tuesday pushed back against Democratic criticism of this weekend’s military operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro, noting that his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden had also called for the arrest of the Venezuelan leader on drug trafficking charges. Trump in remarks before a House Republican retreat in Washington grumbled that Democrats were not giving him credit for a successful military operation that led to the ouster of Maduro, even though there was bipartisan agreement that Maduro was not the rightful president of Venezuela. “You know, at some point, they should say, ‘You know, you did a great job. Thank you. Congratulations.’ Wouldn’t it be good?” Trump said. “I would say that if they did a good job, their philosophies are so different. But if they did a good job, I’d be happy for the country. They’ve been after this guy for years and years and years.” Trump’s latest comments came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other top officials briefed leaders in Congress late Monday on the Venezuela operation amid mounting concerns that the Republican administration is embarking on a new era of U.S. expansionism without consultation with lawmakers or a clear vision for running the South American country. After the briefing, House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters he does not expect the United States to deploy troops to Venezuela, saying the U.S. actions there are “not a regime change” operation. Democratic leaders said the session lacked clarity about the Trump administration’s plans for Venezuela. Americans are split about the capture of Maduro — with many still forming opinions — according to a poll conducted by The Washington Post and SSRS using text messages over the weekend. About 4 in 10 approved of the U.S. military being sent to capture Maduro, while roughly the same share were opposed. About 2 in 10 were unsure. Nearly half of Americans, 45%, were opposed to the U.S. taking control of Venezuela and choosing a new government for the country. About 9 in 10 Americans said the Venezuelan people should be the ones to decide the future leadership of their country. - AP
Colombia’s foreign minister said on Tuesday that her country wished to keep open diplomatic channels, but had to be prepared for a “an aggression against our country” by the United States. “For that, we have a very well-trained army,” the minister, Rosa Villavicencio, said at a news conference. Ms. Villavicensio said in a news conference. She stressed that sovereign states have the right to defend themselves.On Sunday, President Trump, when asked if the United States might conduct a military action against Colombia to follow the one in Venezuela, told reporters, “It sounds good to me.” He called Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, “a sick man” and accused him of shipping cocaine to the United States - NYT
Flanked by several other top government officials, Tarek Saab, Venezuela’s attorney general, expressed unity with his nation’s interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, and called for cooperation among all public and military institutions in the face of what he called “state terrorism” against Venezuela by the United States. It is the latest sign that the Venezuelan government under Nicolás Maduro remains intact for now - NYT
Thailand accused Cambodia of violating a 10-day-old truce on Tuesday (Jan 6), saying cross-border mortar fire wounded a soldier, while Phnom Penh said a “pile of garbage” exploded, injuring two of its own troops. Bangkok’s foreign ministry said Thai forces “did not retaliate”, opting instead to contact the Cambodian side to verify what happened, adding that Phnom Penh “claimed it was an accident”. The Thai ministry also urged Cambodia to “prevent such incidents from recurring” and issue an apology, according to a statement. A decades-old border dispute between the Southeast Asian nations erupted into military clashes several times last year, with fighting in December killing dozens of people and displacing around one million on both sides. The two countries agreed a fragile truce on Dec 27, ending three weeks of clashes. Cambodia “violated the ceasefire” on Tuesday morning, the Thai army said in a statement, accusing Cambodian forces of firing mortar rounds into Thailand’s Ubon Ratchathani province - CNA
An Alaska Airlines captain has sued Boeing for $10 million, accusing the manufacturer of “scapegoating” the crew after the plane he was piloting lost a door cover mid-flight, leaving a gaping hole in the side of the aircraft. Brandon Fisher was at the helm of a Boeing 737 MAX that took off from Portland, Oregon, for Ontario, California in January 2024. At 16,000 feet, the plane lost a door plug covering a deactivated emergency exit. The pilots declared an emergency and descended below 10,000 feet so there would be enough oxygen to breathe normally, even with a door-sized hole in the left side of the plane. Fisher and his first officer, Emily Wiprud, landed the plane safely with only minor injuries reported. An investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board later found that when the plane left the Boeing factory, it was missing key bolts securing the door plug. But in a class action lawsuit related to the incident, Boeing denied responsibility on the grounds that its products were “improperly maintained or misused by persons and/or entities other than Boeing.” According to Fisher’s suit, those words were “clearly directed” at the captain in an attempt to “paint him as the scapegoat for Boeing’s numerous failures,” causing him to suffer emotional distress on top of other “life-changing impacts” caused by the incident - The Daily Beast
The journals…..
