Peace Talks, Blood on the Ground, and the $450 Billion Reality
As U.S.-brokered talks inch forward, Russia’s shadow fleet bankrolls the war - exposing why Ukraine faces immense pressure to concede, and why Europe still isn’t pulling the real economic levers
In today’s World Briefing video, I unpack the fast-moving developments around the war in Ukraine, following my CNN interview on the latest talks held in the UAE. I look closely at Russia’s shadow fleet — a largely unchecked lifeline that pumps an estimated $150 billion a year into the Kremlin’s war economy, totalling roughly $450 billion since the invasion began. That starkly contrasts with the less than $200 billion in combined EU support provided to Ukraine over the same period. I also explain why calls for territorial concessions remain politically and morally fraught for Kyiv, after the immense human cost Ukrainians have already paid - making it extraordinarily difficult for President Zelensky to accept maximalist demands. As always, if you value independent, frontline-driven analysis, please consider a paid subscription to World Briefing or supporting our work through a one-time $100 donation via this link.
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The next round of US-brokered peace talks with Russia is “likely” to take place in the United States as officials from both countries wrapped up a second day of renewed negotiations, President Zelensky said. Ahead of the Abu Dhabi meetings on February 4-5, both Russian and Ukrainian officials hinted at glimmers of optimism to end the full-scale invasion, which Russia launched on February 24, 2022, and which has now killed or wounded nearly 2 million men on both sides. With no other apparent breakthroughs in the sputtering efforts to end Moscow’s all-out war on Ukraine, the two sides agreed to another prisoner-of-war swap, something that has occurred periodically throughout the war. Steve Witkoff, the White House envoy who has led the US-led talks, announced the exchange, in which 314 prisoners were released on February 5. “While significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine,” Witkoff said in a post to X. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian officials made any announcements about the outcome of the talks. Kyrylo Budanov, the former head of Ukraine’s military intelligence who is now a top presidential adviser, was quoted by RBK-Ukraine as saying they were “indeed constructive.” Despite the hints of progress, Russia continued to barrage Ukraine with drones and missile. On the eve of the talks, Russia launched one of its largest aerial attacks of the war, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and deepening misery for civilians suffering through a bitterly cold winter - RFE/RL
A high-profile general in Russia’s military has been shot several times and wounded in Moscow. Lt Gen Vladimir Alexeyev was immediately taken to hospital after the attack in a residential apartment block on the north-western outskirts of the city and his condition is unknown. Alexeyev is number two in the main directorate of Russia’s GRU military intelligence and he is the latest high-ranking military figure to have been targeted in the capital since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began almost four years ago. He was placed under European Union and UK sanctions after the GRU was accused of being behind the 2018 nerve agent attack in Salisbury in the UK. “The victim has been hospitalised at one of the city’s hospitals,” said Svetlana Petrenko of Russia’s Investigations Committee, which said it opened a criminal case for attempted murder.
The gunman fled and investigators searched CCTV footage for clues and began interviewing witnesses - BBC
Russia’s top diplomat slammed French efforts to resuscitate dialogue between Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin as “pathetic” just days after the French president’s top diplomatic adviser traveled to Moscow for high-level talks. “French President Emmanuel Macron about two weeks ago once again said he would somehow call [Vladimir] Putin,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with state media outlet RT. “You know, this is not serious. It’s pathetic diplomacy. If you want to call and have a serious conversation, then call. Putin will always pick up the phone. He will always hear out any proposals, especially serious ones,” Lavrov said. Two EU diplomats, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the delicate talks, confirmed to POLITICO that Bonne visited the Russian capital Tuesday to lay the groundwork for Putin and Macron to resume speaking with each other. The leaders have not spoken directly since shortly after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. One of the diplomats said Bonne met with top Putin aide Yury Ushakov, who is part of Russia’s delegation in ongoing peace talks with Ukraine brokered by the United States. French officials declined to confirm or deny Bonne’s visit. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov did the same Thursday at his daily press briefing out of “solidarity” with the French. Prominent Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote in a post on X that the Kremlin’s reaction signals it is open to Macron’s outreach “but remains deeply [sic] sceptical about what Europe can offer.” - Politico
Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet venture is increasingly being seen as critical infrastructure that can be targeted or exploited in geopolitical conflicts. French authorities on Thursday accused two Chinese nationals of trying to intercept sensitive military data using Starlink from an Airbnb rental. And Russia, which is not allowed to use Starlink, has been illegally mounting Starlink systems on its attack drones, according to researchers. However, Ukraine said Thursday that Moscow’s terminals had been “cut off,” in a blow to Russia’s military communications. Activists in Iran also used Starlink after Tehran imposed internet blackouts during anti-government protests last month. But relying solely on Starlink, given Musk’s strong political views, “can be really dangerous from a country’s sovereignty perspective,” one expert argued - Semafor
Russian military bloggers on Thursday reported a sweeping outage of Starlink internet terminals across the front line in Ukraine after network owner Elon Musk shut them down following a plea from Kyiv. At least nine bloggers close to the Russian army said connections had been lost, adding that this could weaken Moscow’s ability to wage drone warfare and hinder coordination between units.
Moscow does not have a home-produced alternative to the satellite internet terminals. “This is all very bad, especially given how crucial communications are at the front,” blogger Roman Alekhin wrote on Telegram. Ukraine has also widely used the terminals throughout the four-year war to enable frontline communications. “This is our Achilles’ heel,’ one good commander told me long ago about Starlink,” Russian military blogger Alexander Kots said in a post. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov hailed the move earlier this week as having “delivered real results.” - Moscow Times
Polish authorities detained five people Thursday in connection with a smuggling operation that used weather balloons to transport cigarettes from Belarus, causing millions in tax losses and disrupting air traffic. The suspects, including Ukrainian, Belarusian and Polish nationals, face charges related to organised crime, violations of air traffic regulations and supporting aggression against Ukraine. They face between nine months and 12 years in prison if convicted. All five have been remanded in custody for three months. Investigators said the group smuggled at least 48,000 packets of cigarettes worth nearly 1 million zloty (€237,000) between September 2025 and February of this year. The Polish treasury lost an estimated 2 million zloty (€474,000) in unpaid excise taxes. The smuggling operation involved assembling cigarette parcels in weather balloons equipped with GPS devices. Once the balloons reached Polish territory, GPS tracking allowed smugglers to locate and retrieve the cargo, according to investigators. Neighbouring Lithuania reported numerous incidents of balloons with cigarettes entering its airspace from Belarus in late 2025, leading to arrests and investigations. Latvia faces similar problems - Euronews
US and Iranian officials are set to hold talks in Oman amid weeks of escalating tensions and fears of a military confrontation between the two countries. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has travelled to the Omani capital Muscat for the discussions, while United States President Donald Trump’s advisers Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are also set to take part. Oman, as well as Italy, hosted the previous round of the talks last year, which reached five rounds before Israel attacked Iran. Talks were originally scheduled to take place in Turkiye, but the venue was announced to have changed to Muscat late on Wednesday. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned of the threat of a military escalation in the Middle East before the US-Iran talks. Merz told reporters in the Qatari capital Doha yesterday that fears of a new conflict had dominated his talks during his trip to the Gulf region. “Great concern has been expressed about a further escalation in the conflict with Iran,” the German leader said - Al Jazeera
Two Asian nations that have seen repeated changes of leaders in recent years are holding general elections this weekend. In Japan, a lower house election is taking place on Sunday, just months after Sanae Takaichi became the nation's first female prime minister. Takaichi has declared that she is putting her own political fate on the line. Under her leadership, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has, for the first time in a national election, pledged to cut consumption taxes -- a move widely criticized as "tax‑cut populism" aimed at winning voter support. Her remarks, which appear to tolerate a weaker yen, have heightened market sensitivity, and the election's outcome is likely to have significant implications not only for Japan's markets but also for global markets. A key question is whether the election results will bring an end to Japan’s “revolving‑door leadership.” If the LDP wins a sweeping victory, that could become more likely. Thailand, which has experienced continued political instability, is also holding a general election on Sunday. Local opinion polls suggest that the largest opposition group, the People’s Party, is in the lead, but nothing is guaranteed. In Thai politics, what attracts even more attention than the voting itself is the post-election coalition negotiations among parties. The choice of Thailand’s next leader will also significantly affect tensions along the country’s border with Cambodia. After this weekend, on Feb. 12, Bangladesh is scheduled to hold its first general election since the mass uprising in summer 2024 that ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina - Nikkei Asia
Aussie pub-goers are being ripped off with federal governments sleuths finding that 32 percent of bars are failing to pour a fair amount of “amber fluid” (beer) into glasses. The government sent “secret shopper” officials to 436 licensed venues across the country in October to check if they were filling glasses high enough. Preliminary findings showed 32 percent of the drinks they served failed to deliver the “correct amount”, said the National Measurement Institute’s audit report released this week. The regulator issued 130 non-compliance notices, and said common issues included inaccurate measuring instruments, unapproved glasses, and “spillage during pouring, meaning customers got less than they paid for”. Beer consumption in Australia has declined in the past five decades, but for many the drink remains an important part of the culture. Official figures show drinkers in Australia downed an estimated 82 litres (173 pints) of beer per person in the 2019-20 financial year. Hoteliers said they were working hard to ensure every pour of beer passed the pub test. “Unfortunately, issues sometimes arise due to incorrect measuring devices and spillage -- especially when things are busy at the bar,” the Australian Hotels Association said in a statement Friday. “We are working with our membership to ensure we fix any shortcomings to ensure all patrons receive exactly what they have paid for.” - RTL Today/Daily Telegraph
The journals….
