Peace on Earth?
From Gaza to Ukraine to Southeast Asia, wars grind on — even as politicians declare them “solved.”
A mother and child stand before a bombed-out Christmas tree, surrounded by rubble. The scene could be Gaza. Or eastern Ukraine. Or a border village in Southeast Asia. That, perhaps, is the point. As the holiday season approaches, conflict has become so normalized - and so simultaneous - that suffering blurs across geography.
This week’s World Briefing comes as Donald Trump proclaims peace in Gaza and along the Thai-Cambodian border, even as violence escalates, negotiations stall, and new fronts open. From faltering efforts to secure a just peace in Ukraine, to a major expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, to U.S. military escalation off the coast of Venezuela, the gap between political declarations and lived reality has rarely been wider. Peace on earth? For many, it remains painfully out of reach.
The US-trained Royal Thai Navy on Saturday (December 20) geared up to stop all Thai ships in the Gulf of Thailand transporting fuel and military supplies to Cambodia, the first major use of the artillery-firing navy in the five-month-long border war. The US Seventh Fleet uses the Gulf of Thailand when its aircraft carriers and other vessels dock near Bangkok at Sattahip port where Thailand’s First Naval Area Command is based to secure the gulf, which is peppered with inhabited Thai and Cambodian islands, navy facilities and oil rigs. In addition to intercepting Thai ships, including fishing and commercial vessels, the navy said it would stop Thai-owned ships sailing under foreign flags and registrations, if they are suspected of transporting fuel, weapons, ammunition or other military equipment across the gulf to reach Cambodia’s south coast. Thai shipping companies facilitating their travel, vessels’ owners, suppliers, chandlers and others linked to Thai ships violating the ban would also be held responsible, officials said. The navy warned shippers about “high-risk zones” in the Gulf of Thailand’s northeast waters, close to southern Cambodia’s beach towns and scattered ports. That coastline is rife with smugglers, human traffickers, fugitives and others illegally using small boats to avoid crossing the nearby Thailand-Cambodian land border. Thai news reports claim Cambodia has deployed drones to buzz and potentially disrupt or bomb oil platforms in the gulf, including those operated by state-run PTTEP. An industry source told Asia Times that Chevron’s platforms have also reported drone activity over their assets. Reports said the Thai navy has deployed helicopters and ships to protect the platforms. The Gulf of Thailand is bigger than the Persian Gulf, covering a surface the size of Poland. The 123,000-square-mile (123,550-square kilometer.) gulf forms a cul-de-sac in the western Pacific, bordered by Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Malaysia. Thailand shares the Gulf of Thailand with Cambodia. The navy’s interceptions may become hampered by Thai and Cambodian maps of the gulf, which outline their disputed, overlapping maritime borders around prized undersea natural gas and petroleum zones, and drilling rigs operated by Chevron and other foreign and Thai corporations. Cambodia’s share of the Gulf of Thailand includes nearby Ream Naval Base next to sheltered Sihanoukville Bay. Washington fears if a US-China war erupts, Ream Naval Base will be used by Cambodia’s close ally China, which has financed and constructed the base’s newest facilities and recent extensive dredging, allowing deep-water vessels including warships to dock, load and unload, and undergo maintenance and repairs. China’s privileged access to the facility would potentially provide it a strategic southern flank it has until now lacked in any conflict in the South China Sea. At the ASEAN Summit in late October, US President Donald Trump oversaw a ceasefire announcement between the two sides. US statements since the resumption of hostilities have been perceived in Bangkok as favoring Cambodia’s version of events over Thailand’s allegations of new landmine laying that killed and injured Thai soldiers and restoked the hostilities - Asia Times
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz tried to push through the idea of using €210 billion in frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine. But at the decisive moment, he lacked a key ally — Emmanuel Macron. Publicly, Paris did not object, but behind the scenes Macron’s team said the country could not shoulder the financial guarantees. As a result, France lined up with Belgium and Italy and effectively buried the plan. “Macron betrayed Merz, and he knows he’ll have to pay for it,” a source told the newspaper. France is squeezed by debt and a political crisis, while Berlin has become tougher and more proactive since Merz came to power. As the outlet notes, Germany is ready to spend hundreds of billions on defense and infrastructure. At the same time, France is talking more and doing less - FT via Nexta
A senior Kremlin official has played down the chances of swift progress on Ukraine peace talks amid two days of meetings in Florida between US and Russian envoys. Yuri Ushakov, foreign policy aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin, told reporters in Moscow on December 21 that chief negotiator Kirill Dmitriev would simply come home and make a report. “The Americans are celebrating Christmas in these days. Not many people are going to be working,” he said. US envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are believed to be representing Washington. Ushakov also poured cold water on a statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Washington had proposed three-way talks. “So far, no one has seriously discussed this initiative, and it is not being worked on, as far as I know,” he said, adding that Dmitriev was only holding talks with US officials. “I am sure that the proposals that the Europeans and Ukrainians have made or are trying to make definitely do not improve the document and do not improve the possibility of achieving long-term peace,” Ushakov said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said on December 21 that there were no plans for a telephone call between Putin and US President Donald Trump, “but it can be quickly organized if necessary.” He added that Putin would meet Belarusian leader Aleksandr Lukashenko, a key ally who has been seen as a possible back channel to Washington, during diplomatic meetings in St. Petersburg on December 21-22 - RFE/RL
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine must make compromises to end the war after Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to his full war aims on December 19. Separately, U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Putin has not abandoned his aims of capturing all of Ukraine and reclaiming parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire,” Reuters reported.
Authorities were evacuating people from part of Ukraine's Sumy region bordering Russia, amid reports that Russian forces had abducted civilians and taken them to Russia. Ukraine’s ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets, said he had written to his Russian counterpart, Tetyana Moskalkova, demanding information about the whereabouts of the kidnapped Ukrainian citizens. He has also appealed to the International Red Cross for help.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future. Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15. The Turkish Ministry of National Defense reported on December 15 that Turkish and NATO forces shot down a drone approaching Turkish airspace from the Black Sea. Turkish authorities did not specify the type or origin of the drone. The Turkish Interior Ministry reported on December 19 that Turkish authorities found a downed Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone near Izmit in northwestern Turkey. Turkish outlets reported on December 20 that a third drone crashed in Balıkesir Province in northwestern Turkey, possibly on an earlier date, and that there were no identifying markings on the drone. A Russian milblogger claimed that the third drone was a Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone. Turkish authorities have not directly attributed the incidents to Russia as of this writing.
A top Putin general linked to the Salisbury poisonings has been killed in a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker in the Mediterranean, according to reports. General Andrey Averyanov, head of the Covert Operations Unit that orchestrated the 2018 Salisbury poisonings, is believed to have been on board the Russian tanker that was blown up by Ukrainian drones on Friday. Averyanov is linked to some of Russia’s most notorious covert operations abroad, including the assassination of Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023 and a deadly explosion in the Czech Republic in 2014. A report on a pro-Ukraine platform said: ‘According to preliminary (unconfirmed) data, General of the GRU Andrey Averyanov, along with several of his deputies, was already eliminated with the ship.’ Ukrainian reports also stated that Averyanov frequently travelled across Europe on Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers for his covert operations, the Sun reported. He is believed to have been among other senior Moscow officials on board the tanker. On Friday, Ukraine struck a Russian ‘shadow fleet’ tanker with drones in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. The cargo ship was sailing in an undisclosed location around 1,243 miles from Ukraine’s borders when it was hit in a ‘new, unprecedented special operation’, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine said - Daily Mail
Israel’s Cabinet has approved a proposal for 19 new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank, the far-right finance minister said Sunday, as the government pushes ahead with a construction binge in the territory that further threatens the possibility of a Palestinian state. That brings the total number of new settlements over the past few years to 69, a new record, according to Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has pushed a settlement expansion agenda in the West Bank. The latest ones include two that were previously evacuated during a 2005 disengagement plan. The approval increases the number of settlements in the West Bank by nearly 50% during the current far-right government’s tenure. In 2022, there were 141 settlements across the West Bank. After the latest approval, there are 210, according to Peace Now, an anti-settlement watchdog group. Settlements are widely considered illegal under international law. Smotrich’s office said the Cabinet approval came on Dec. 11 and that the development had been classified until now. The approval comes as the U.S. pushes Israel and Hamas to move ahead with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which took effect Oct. 10. The U.S.-brokered plan calls for a possible “pathway” to a Palestinian state, something the settlements are aimed at preventing - AP
The Coast Guard seized a second Venezuela-linked oil tanker early Saturday, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced in a post on X, as the administration continues to pressure the South American country over drug trafficking. “The United States will continue to pursue the illicit movement of sanctioned oil that is used to fund narco terrorism in the region,” Noem wrote. “We will find you, and we will stop you.” The seizure marks the second oil tanker with ties to Venezuela the U.S. has nabbed in recent days. Just over a week ago, U.S. officials apprehended a major oil tanker bound for Cuba off the coast of Venezuela. Attorney General Pam Bondi later said the tanker had trafficked sanctioned oil from the South American petrostate and Iran. The White House has amplified tensions against Venezuela in recent weeks, with President Donald Trump repeatedly refusing to rule out an American ground invasion and predicting ominously to POLITICO that longtime strongman Nicolas Maduro’s “days are numbered.” - Politico
New data reveals the top European destinations for US travellers this winter - with Vienna and Copenhagen among rising stars. Festive markets, unique traditions and winter sports are just some of the reasons Americans love to cross the Atlantic Ocean for their winter holidays. Travel insurer Allianz Partners had analysed 165,000 booking enquiries made for trips between 26 November 2025 and 6 January 2026. It reveals that Europe’s major cities still reign supreme - but Americans are gradually getting more adventurous with their choices. For the second year in a row, London is the most popular European destination among Americans travelling overseas during the festive season. For those seeking a more romantic Christmas, Paris is the obvious choice. Just like in 2024, the French capital - with its charming Christmas markets, iconic landmarks and world-class galleries - takes second place. Following in the footsteps of the upcoming season of ‘Emily in Paris’, however, many Americans are switching the City of Love for beautiful Rome. All in all, the data underlines a clear and consistent trend: Americans are willing to travel far for meaningful winter experiences, and Europe - with its combination of history, seasonal traditions and enticing food - remains a preferred backdrop for Christmas and New Year - Euronews
The United States routinely tops the list of foreign travelers’ dream destinations. But that’s changing. Steep new fees, travel restrictions, visa hurdles, uncertainty at the border, and President Trump’s aggressive language toward Canada and other countries are all taking a toll. This month, the government announced a plan to scrutinize the social media of many foreign tourists and to collect information about their family members. Post-pandemic travel growth has stalled and 4.5 million fewer international visits are expected this year compared with 2024, according to industry estimates. Arrivals from nearly all regions of the world have dropped, according to the research firm Tourism Economics. Visitor arrivals from Germany fell nearly 12 percent through November, compared with last year. The number of visitors from France plunged by nearly 7 percent. Arrivals from South Korea were down almost 6 percent. But the sharpest retreat came from Canada, the second-biggest source of foreign tourists in 2024, after Mexico. Arrivals fell nearly 26 percent through November compared with last year, when Mr. Trump first suggested making Canada the “51st state.” “It’s a little bit of a lost year,” said Jan Freitag, the national director of hospitality market analytics at CoStar, a property research organization, who estimated that 11 million fewer hotel rooms had sold this year compared with last. “Every quarter we’ve revised our forecast down.” - NYT
You could be the proud new owner of a Javier Milei statuette- or the chainsaw-wielding figurine of the Argentine president, the two items appearing at a Rome charity auction this month along with 270 other gifts bestowed upon Italian n Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who is prohibited from keeping presents valued in excess of $350. The entire lot, estimated to be worth more than $900,000, also includes a traditional Kerala dress from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, gold-heeled, blue python skin shoes from the director of the Saudi Italian Business Council, and a scarf that Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama got on one knee to present. Meloni’s supporters credit her with “winning over foreign leaders and making Italy a key protagonist in the world again,” The Guardian wrote.
The journals……
Terrific global overview. The Thailand-Cambodia naval escalation over drilling rights is the kind of resource-driven conflict that gets buried under bigger headlines but could spiral fast. Also intresting that travel drops to the US aren't just from Trump's rhetoric but the whole security theater around social media screening. When you make the entry process feel invasive people just pick Vienna instead.