Two mobilizations are shaping this war from opposite ends. In Kyiv, fresh remarks in the Kyiv Independent attributed to Ukraine’s Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov, we learn that Kyiv cannot mobilise fewer than 30,000 people a month - not to advance, but to hold what it has. He added that expecting the war to end in the short term is unrealistic. After another violent night of Russian strikes, with Ukraine hitting back, that is attrition stated plainly.
Russia is planning for 600,000 recruits across 2026 and 2027, according to Ukrainian intelligence, with the next wave expected in September. People are already leaving. Many are heading to Georgia. But as I’ve been reporting from here, a large Russian community has been embedded in Thailand for years now. They have embedded themselves deep into real estate and money changing, moving sums that raise obvious questions about where the money is coming from and how it is avoiding sanctions.
Before that: the executive order renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America,” and Trump’s off-hand musing that the Atlantic and Pacific might be next. Buffoonery - but instructive. If the map is up for grabs, Carney, Premier Pillai and Premier Eby should consider renaming the Alaska Highway, or simply folding it into the Trans-Canada network.
Also: a growing backlash in Thailand and the Philippines against disruptive Israeli tourists.
The week ahead - the SCO summit in Bishkek, G20 finance ministers in Asheville with Champagne there for Canada, and the run-up to UN week.
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