Not Quite “Obliterated”
Western intelligence points to resilient Iranian missile and drone capabilities even after US-Israeli strikes, as ceasefire talks inch forward and a reopened Hormuz masks deeper instability
Pre-war planning meant Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments — which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails. The country has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximizing the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said, requesting anonymity discussing private reports. These provide a much more nuanced picture of the outcomes of the US-Israeli operation than that portrayed by President Donald Trump and US administration officials. The effectiveness of Iran’s earlier military planning also raises the prospect that it could use the current ceasefire to make preparations for any resumption of hostilities. “Iran has been totally OBLITERATED, Militarily, and otherwise,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. When the president announced the ceasefire last week, he said the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Instead, plans put in place by Iran to replace senior military leaders in the event they were killed meant the country was able to minimize disruption to its command structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said. It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armory, the people added. Iran’s missile stocks are a closely guarded secret. Some Western officials privately claim the US would need to conduct around two to three more weeks of strikes to completely degrade Iranian capabilities. But others say that may be an optimistic scenario: it could take longer, and Iran’s industrial and nuclear capabilities may still not be wiped out. Iran has dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and also shifts launchers around to different sites, making it harder for the US to quickly eliminate them. The picture sits at odds with the assessment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a press briefing on April 8: “By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come,” he said, using the administration’s name for its operation - Bloomberg
Some Gulf and European leaders reportedly fear that it could take six months or more to negotiate a US-Iran peace deal, amid calls to urgently reopen the Strait of Hormuz to avoid severe food and energy supply shocks globally. Several leaders have urged an extended ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, according to Bloomberg, pressing for a deal that would ban Iran from enriching uranium or building long-range missiles. US President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed to hand over its “nuclear dust,” enriched uranium, but Iran has not confirmed the concession - Semafor
US President Donald Trump expressed confidence on Thursday that an agreement could soon be reached to end the Iran war. Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran could take place over the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Tehran wanted a deal. “We're going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion. “I would go to Pakistan, yeah. Pakistan has been great...” he told reporters. “If the deal is signed in Islamabad, I might go…they want me.” - Al Arabiya
Russian stocks fell on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” on the heels of a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon.
The ruble-denominated MOEX benchmark slid 0.7%. The MOEXOG oil and gas index led the decline among major indices, dropping 2.7%. Rosneft shares fell by more than 4%, while Gazprom Neft dropped nearly 3%. Lukoil and Tatneft both saw declines of more than 2%. Global oil prices were down more than 11%, with Brent crude futures dropping to around $88 per barrel. The decline extended previous losses as investors hoped for further talks between the U.S. and Iran over the coming weekend. In a post published on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi wrote: “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.” The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which Tehran had demanded apply to Israel and Lebanon as well, is scheduled to end at midnight next Wednesday unless the two sides agree to an extension. The 10-day pause in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon ends on April 26. Russia has been a primary financial beneficiary of the war in Iran. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left governments scrambling to find alternative supplies of oil and other crucial resources that normally pass through the narrow waterway. Moscow’s revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19 billion in March, according to the International Energy Agency, a sharp reversal from February, when revenues hit a post-invasion low of $9.75 billion. The Kremlin said earlier in April that the Strait of Hormuz remained open to Russian ships - Moscow Times
The Pentagon’s top policy official is warning that future military support for Ukraine cannot depend on the United States, sharpening pressure on European allies to take the lead. In remarks delivered at this week’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Berlin and published on X on Thursday evening, Elbridge Colby said Washington’s support had relied heavily on “drawing down finite U.S. stockpiles,” an approach he signaled is no longer sustainable. “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent,” Colby said. “This is not a matter of choice, but of strategic necessity.” He added that continued assistance to Kyiv “must not rely on significant U.S. contributions,” urging allies to step up funding and production instead. Under Donald Trump, new U.S. military aid to Ukraine has fallen to almost nothing. However, Washington is willing to sell weapons to Kyiv financed by other allies under the NATO-led Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List program, which gathered €3.7 billion last year for arms purchases. This week, Vice President JD Vance said he was proud of the U.S. halting military aid to Ukraine. “It’s one of the things I’m proudest that we’ve done in this administration is we’ve told Europe that if you want to buy weapons, you can, but the United States is not buying weapons and sending them to Ukraine anymore,” he said at a Turning Point USA event - Politico
Ukraine has damaged or destroyed so much Russian oil and gas infrastructure in the past two weeks that it has prompted Russia to issue a warning to European countries and industries against funding its long-range drone production. The warning came after Ukraine reached a new series of agreements with European defence companies this week. “We consider this decision to be a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military and political situation on the entire European continent and creeping transformation of these countries into a strategic rear for Ukraine,” said a statement from the Russian defence ministry on Wednesday this week. Russia warned of “unpredictable consequences” and said that “the moves of European leaders are increasingly dragging these countries into the war with Russia.” It published a list of addresses of European companies involved in joint weapons production with Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy head of its National Security Council, later clarified that this amounted to “a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces”. - Al Jazeera
Hungary's incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar said on Friday that oil flows from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline could resume next week. Magyar said the Hungarian oil and gas concern MOL MOLB.BU told him that “based on information from their partners they expect the Druzhba oil pipeline to restart next week.” The pipeline, which delivers Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine’s territory, has been a source of contention between Budapest and Kyiv after flows were stopped when it sustained damage in a Russian drone strike in late January. Landlocked Hungary is heavily dependent on Russia for energy and after flows through the pipe were stopped, outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán used his veto to block a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Union officials are meeting in Budapest with members of Magyar's team on Friday about several issues, including unlocking about €17 billion of aid for Hungary that was withheld during Orbán's premiership - Euronews
U.S. public broadcaster NPR said it had received two gifts totaling $113 million, including the largest donation from a living donor in the network’s history. Connie Ballmer, the philanthropist and co-founder of the Ballmer Group, a philanthropic organization she leads with her husband, the billionaire former Microsoft executive Steve Ballmer, gave NPR $80 million for its digital innovation efforts. An anonymous donor gave $33 million to support the NPR Network, a web of affiliated public radio stations across the United States. “I support NPR because an informed public is the bedrock of our society, and democracy requires strong, independent journalism,” Ms. Ballmer said in a statement. “My hope is that this commitment provides the stability and the spark NPR needs to innovate boldly and strengthen its national network.” Last year, Congress clawed back $500 million in annual funding from public broadcasters, sending hundreds of stations scrambling. NPR was somewhat insulated from the direct financial impacts of that decision, because a small fraction of its budget came directly from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the government-funded company that gave away funds to NPR and PBS stations. But the ripple effects still have taken a toll - NYT
U.S. Navy families have spoken out about the state of the food being served to their sons and daughters amid President Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East. Crew on board aircraft carriers the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford are beginning to feel the effects. Pictures obtained by the Center on Conscience & War and published by USA Today show the grim meals the sailors and Marines are being served. One sailor on the USS Abraham Lincoln said, “The food is tasteless, and there’s not nearly enough, and they’re hungry all the time,” one community organizer trying to get packages to the afflicted fighters reported. One image shows a dry patty, plastic-looking carrots, and a slab of processed meat on a plastic tray. Another now-viral image shows shredded meat and a single tortilla on a mostly empty tray. “We have the strongest military in the world. You shouldn’t be running out of food, and you shouldn’t not be able to get mail on the ship,” Dan, 63, the father of a service member struggling with the situation told USA Today. “The one thing we had over our adversaries [was] we fed our people,” Dan, who also served in the Marines and asked the paper to identify him only by his first name to shield his child from potential retaliation, added - The Daily Beast
The journals….
