Macron’s High-Stakes Gamble: France Edges Toward Political Meltdown

With Prime Minister Lecornu’s shock resignation, France is once again rudderless—and Macron’s room for maneuver is shrinking fast.

“To be free in this world, you have to be feared. To be feared, you have to be powerful” - Emmanuel Macron

France has been thrown into yet another period of political turbulence following the abrupt resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu on Monday, making him the shortest-serving head of government in modern French history. Lecornu was President Emmanuel Macron’s fifth prime minister since 2022 and the third since last summer’s snap parliamentary elections. Those elections left France with a hung parliament divided into three blocs: the president’s centrist alliance, a left-wing coalition and the far-right National Rally. None has a workable majority, and each is more focused on sharpening its position ahead of the 2027 presidential race than on compromise. The political crisis is also a financial one. France’s deficit is close to 6% of GDP - double the EU limit - and its debt is among the highest in the bloc. Passing an austerity budget through this fragmented assembly has already cost two of Lecornu’s predecessors their jobs, and Lecornu quickly realised he would meet the same fate. The backlash against his cabinet appointments confirmed it. By reappointing many familiar faces on Sunday evening, Lecornu angered allies and opponents alike. Conservatives said the lineup failed to represent the promised “break” with past politics, while others dismissed it as proof that French President Emmanuel Macron is still refusing to make any compromises. Now the burden falls squarely on the French head of state, who faces few easy options - Euronews

• As France’s political parties held emergency meetings and scrambled to chalk up strategies following the shock news, the resigned prime minister went back to the presidential office on Monday afternoon. Hours later, President Emmanuel Macron’s office informed the French people that the resigned prime minister has been given 48 hours to conduct last-ditch talks to save the conservative-leaning government. Macron has said he is ready to “assume responsibility” if Lecornu fails again after a 48-hour, Wednesday evening deadline for last-ditch negotiations, AFP reports citing an unnamed source close to the French president.

  With this message, Macron appears to be threatening to dissolve the National Assembly, the powerful lower house of parliament, according to experts. - France 24

• Shares in French banks fell sharply on Monday after Sebastien Lecornu resigned. Shares in European banking giant BNP Paribas were down 4.5 percent in midday trading, Societe Generale shed almost six percent and Credit Agricole lost more than four percent - France 24

France’s power vacuum isn’t just Parisian palace drama—it could ripple through Brussels’ fiscal fights and Kyiv’s war calculus. Paid subscribers of World Briefing: scroll for my exclusive hot-take on France’s crisis—and what it signals for EU decision-making and Ukraine’s long game.👇

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Delegations from Hamas and Israel, together with mediators, convene in Egypt for talks, with US President Donald Trump calling on negotiators to “move fast” to end the nearly two-year war on the Gaza Strip. Hamas says its delegation is headed by Khalil al-Hayya, the head of the group’s negotiating team who was targeted in an assassination attempt by Israel in Qatar last month, Al Jazeera reported. Israeli attacks on Gaza have continued unabated, with at least 10 Palestinians, including aid seekers, killed since dawn.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed current developments in the Middle East during a phone call on Monday, the Kremlin stated. Both leaders spoke on US President Donald Trump’s 20-point proposal to end the war in the Gaza Strip, with Putin reaffirming Moscow’s position “in favor of a comprehensive settlement of the Palestinian issue.” The two also spoke on finding a solution to the Iranian nuclear program and how to achieve further stabilization in Syria. This comes after a KAN News report that Netanyahu was trying to help reduce tensions between Putin and US President Donald Trump. Netanyahu’s office has recently been working closely with Russia, according to KAN, in apparent efforts to resolve several different issues, including the tension between the US and Russia following Putin’s insistence on continuing the war in Ukraine. However, the Kremlin has frequently praised its ties to Palestinian actors and terror groups, such as Hamas.

  After Russian-Israeli hostage Sasha Troufanov was released earlier this year, Putin told him to thank his captors for deciding to release him. “Your release is a result of Russia’s long-standing ties with Palestinians, their representatives, and various organizations. We should thank Hamas’s leadership for this humanitarian act of freeing you,” Putin told Troufanov and his family - Jerusalem Post

The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear, says the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects. Ukraine’s ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia’s rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage – if not destroy – key military assets in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast from which Russia sorties strategic bombers that fire air-launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Russia has been able to significantly scale up its Shahed drone production by expanding the factory in Yelabuga, allowing Russia to launch increasingly large and more frequent long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s nightly strike packages in September 2025 featured an average of 187 long-range drones (many of which are Shahed-type drones) per night, whereas similar strike packages in January 2025 only featured an average of 83 drones, for example. Russia notably started launching overnight strike packages that included over 500 drones more frequently in September 2025. ISW assesses that there are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of the 2,500-kilometer variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations. Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.

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Officials in Oregon and Illinois stepped up efforts to block what they denounced as President Trump’s “invasion” of their cities with National Guard troops, fighting legal battles on multiple fronts on Monday even as 200 soldiers from Texas were headed for Chicago. Illinois officials sued Mr. Trump on Monday, hours after the president ordered hundreds of Texas National Guard soldiers to deploy for “federal protection missions” in Chicago and Portland, Ore. The lawsuit in Illinois followed a stern ruling by a federal judge in Oregon on Sunday blocking Mr. Trump from sending Guard members from any state to Portland. On Monday, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal seeking to stay that ruling. The torrent of moves by the Trump administration to deploy the military to U.S. cities in support of immigration enforcement efforts has left courts across the country scrambling to keep pace with a raft of orders that some judges have already deemed unconstitutional - NYT

An Egyptian antiquities professor and ex-tourism minister is facing off against a Congolese economist who promoted schooling in refugee camps in a race to become the new director of UNESCO. Whoever wins will inherit a world body reeling from the Trump administration’s recent decision to pull the United States out of UNESCO, portending a big budget shortfall at the agency best known for its World Heritage sites around the globe. UNESCO’s executive board begins voting Monday to recommend either Khaled el-Enany or Firmin Édouard Matoko for the position of director-general. The decision by the board, which represents 58 of the agency’s 194 member states, is expected to be finalized by UNESCO’s general assembly next month. Outgoing UNESCO chief Audrey Azoulay notably led a high-profile effort to rebuild the ancient Iraqi city of Mosul after it was devastated under the Islamic State group. UNESCO has also long been plagued by accusations of mismanagement and waste. Trump argues that the agency, which voted in 2011 to admit Palestine as a member, is too politicized and anti-Israel. U.S. supporters of UNESCO, meanwhile, say withdrawing Washington’s support allows China to play an outsized role in the world body. Meanwhile the vote comes at a time when the whole 80-year-old U.N. system is facing financial challenges and deepening divisions over the wars in Gaza and Ukraine - AP

The European Union is set to approve new rules that would make it easier to suspend visa liberalization for third-country nationals traveling into the bloc, a measure aimed in large part at Georgia amid signs Tbilisi is drifting away from democratic reforms and back toward Moscow’s sphere of influence. The European Parliament is expected on October 7 to give its thumbs up to the new legislation and EU member states are expected to follow suit on November 17 with the new rules set to enter into force in December. The measures will apply to all 61 countries that enjoy a visa-free regime with the club, including all the EU hopefuls in the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. But European diplomats admit that the proposed updated rules, at least partly, target another country still enjoying EU visa liberalization: Georgia. The South Caucasus republic has been on a collision course with Brussels for a long time with Tbilisi adopting both anti-LGBT legislation and a so-called “foreign agent” law -- similar legislation has been used by the Kremlin to crack down on free speech and civil society -- last year amid heavy EU criticism - RFE/RL

China and India agreed to restart direct flights after a five-year hiatus, the latest sign of thawing relations between the world’s most populous nations. New Delhi said flights between Kolkata and Guangzhou would restart this month for the first time since border clashes in 2020. The decision comes just months after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first visit to Beijing in seven years, with the countries’ leaders drawing closer, particularly after US President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on India, upending what had been a burgeoning bilateral partnership. Those levies were “one of the biggest shocks that India has ever got,” an expert said, forcing New Delhi to seek new allies - Semafor