I’ve Seen Iran From Two Fronts in Three Weeks
From the Strait of Hormuz to Armenia’s border, one truth is clear: wars don’t stay where they start - and America is feeling the strain
Reporting today from the border between Armenia and Iran - and remarkably, this is my second time in just three weeks reporting in close proximity to Iran.
Three weeks ago, I was standing on the shores of the Strait of Hormuz in Oman, looking across one of the world’s most strategic waterways at Iran from the south. Today, I’m looking into the same country again - this time from its northern frontier here in Armenia. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.
That journey tells its own story.
What began as a war with Iran is now raising much bigger questions: how much power the United States can sustain, how long allies remain aligned, and whether rivals like Russia and China see opportunity in the strain.
From the Gulf to the Caucasus, the message is clear: wars rarely stay where they start.
This is World Briefing — connecting the dots, so that you don’t have to.
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Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year. The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million a pop, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials. The Iran war has significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions, and forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles and other hardware to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe. The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to confront potential adversaries like Russia and China, and it has forced the United States to find ways to scale up production to address the depletions, Trump administration and congressional officials say. The conflict has also underscored the Pentagon’s overreliance on excessively expensive missiles and munitions, especially air-defense interceptors, as well as concerns about whether the defense industry can develop cheaper arms, especially attack drones, far more quickly. The Defense Department has not disclosed how many munitions it used in 38 days of war before a cease-fire took effect two weeks ago. The Pentagon says it hit more than 13,000 targets, but officials say that figure masks the vast number of bombs and missiles it used because warplanes, attack planes and artillery typically strike large targets multiple times. White House officials have refused to estimatethe cost of the conflict so far, but two independent groups say the expense is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, or just under $1 billion a day. In the first two days alone, defense officials have told lawmakers, the military used $5.6 billion of munitions. To restore the U.S. global stockpile to its previous size, the United States will have to make tough choices about where to maintain its military strength in the meantime. “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week. All regional military commanders are feeling the strain of shrinking munitions stocks. In Europe, the war has led to depletions in weapons systems critical for defending the eastern flank of NATO from Russian aggression, according to Pentagon information reviewed by The New York Times - NYT
The drawdowns have left the US underprepared for potential conflict with Russia or China. Replacing stockpiles of air-defense missiles - critical to supporting Taiwan should China invade - could take six years, The Wall Street Journal reported
Nato says there is no provision for member states to be suspended or expelled from the military alliance after a report said the US could seek to suspend Spain over its Iran war stance. Reuters quoted a US official who said an internal Pentagon email had suggested measures for the US to punish allies it believed had failed to support its campaign. The email also suggested reviewing the US position on the UK’s claim to the Falklands islands in the south Atlantic, which are also claimed by Argentina. A Nato official told the BBC that the organisation’s founding treaty “does not foresee any provision for suspension of Nato membership, or expulsion”. Spain’s leader has also dismissed the report. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Nato allies for their reluctance to play a greater role after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February and Iran subsequently restricted shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz route. Spain has refused to allow the use of air bases on its territory for attacks on Iran. The US has two military bases in Spain, Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base - BBC
One of the leaked Pentagon policy options included reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands, the BBC reported. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesperson was asked about the report on Friday. “We could not be clearer about the UK’s position on the Falkland Islands. It is long standing, it is unchanged,” the spokesperson said. “Sovereignty rests with the UK and the islands’ right to self-determination is paramount,” he said.
Peace talks between Iran and the United States could resume soon in Pakistan where Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive on Friday night, three Pakistani sources said. Two of the sources, from the Pakistani government, said a U.S. logistics and security team was already in place for potential talks. There was no immediate direct response from Washington or Tehran to the report. Iranian state media said Araqchi will begin a trip on Friday that includes visits to Islamabad, Muscat and Moscow. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a briefing that Iran had a chance to make a “good deal” with the United States. The last round of peace talks had been expected on Tuesday but never took place. Trump unilaterally extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday at the 11th hour to allow more time to reconvene the negotiators. On Thursday, Israel and Lebanon extended a separate ceasefire for three weeks at a meeting at the White House brokered by Trump - Reuters
France removed climate change from the agenda of this week’s G7 talks to prevent a rift with the United States, according to a French government official. Environment ministers from the G7 nations are meeting in Paris Thursday and Friday to discuss issues ranging from biodiversity to water resources. But the French hosts deliberately avoided putting global warming on the agenda to appease the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump, who has dismissed climate change as a “con job” and withdrawn his country from several international climate bodies. “We have chosen not to tackle the climate issue head-on,” an adviser to French Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut told reporters. “Why? Because the United States’ positions on this issue are well known, and we felt ... that tackling this issue head-on with the United States within the G7 framework would not send a message of unity…We chose to focus on less contentious issues,” said the adviser, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity. Despite those efforts, the U.S. chose not to send a high-level representative to Paris. Washington is represented instead by Usha-Maria Turner, an assistant administrator at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The other six countries sent their ministers. Climate campaigners, however, lambasted France’s stance, especially given Barbut’s complaints about the outcome of last year’s COP climate talks as not ambitious enough. “It’s a paradox to lament the outcome of the COP but when you’re in control of the agenda not use it to address the elephant in the room,” said Fanny Petitbon, France team lead of nonprofit 350.org. “For us, it’s a huge disappointment.” - Politico
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The United States will invite President Vladimir Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami this December, a senior U.S. official confirmed Thursday, though President Donald Trump later said he doubts the Russian leader will accept the invitation. The United States is the 2026 host of the Group of 20, and Trump has promised a lavish summit of leaders on December 14-15 at his National Doral resort in Florida. “All G20 members will be invited to attend ministerial meetings and the leaders’ summit,” a senior Trump administration official said. Despite the confirmation, Trump himself appeared skeptical about the Putin invite during an exchange with reporters later in the day. “I don’t know that he’s coming. I doubt he’d come, to be honest with you,” Trump said before adding that he would welcome the visit. “If he came, it would probably be very helpful” - Moscow Times
Satellite imagery analysis has suggested that Azerbaijan destroyed the Holy Mother of God Cathedral, the main Armenian church in Stepanakert. The church was the largest among Armenian churches in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian investigative outlet Hetq was among the first to verify reports of the church’s demolition circulating online. Images taken by the European Sentinel-2 satellite as of 2 April showed ‘the white paving stones surrounding the Mother Cathedral, but not the church itself’. The church was still standing as of 3 March, Hetq said. Construction of the church began in 2006; it was consecrated in April 2019. Located in central Stepanakert, it served as the region’s primary church, and was also used as a shelter during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and during subsequent escalations with Azerbaijan, providing refuge from Azerbaijani air strikes. Earlier in April, it was reported that another church in Stepanakert, Surb Hakob, built in 2007, was also destroyed. RFE/RL has been unable to get any comment from Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry regarding the reported demolition. Instead Azerbaijani pro-government media outlet APA published a lengthy piece on Wednesday pointing at Armenia’s ‘responsibility for acts of vandalism against Azerbaijan’s religious monuments’ in Nagorno-Karabakh and beyond. APAhas further claimed that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh appropriated religious sites in the region - OC Media
The scene in Tuapse, a resort town of about 60,000 people on Russia’s Black Sea coast, has turned apocalyptic in recent days after Ukrainian strikes on a local oil refinery sparked major fires and spilled oil into the surrounding environment. Located about 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of Sochi, Tuapse is home to a Rosneft-owned refinery that processes around 12 million metric tons of crude annually and serves as a key export route for naphtha, fuel oil and diesel. The refinery was last struck on Monday, setting off a major fire and spilling petroleum products into the Black Sea and the Tuapse River. Since then, residents say they have seen widespread “black rain,” smelled burning and observed mass bird deaths. Many say oily black droplets have appeared on their clothes and skin after spending time outdoors. On Thursday, three days after the fire began, officials urged people to keep their windows closed and limit time outside as polluted smoke continued to spread. Authorities later said the blaze had been contained though it was still burning. Environmentalist Yevgeny Vitishko, a member of an advisory council under the Krasnodar region governor, described the Tuapse incident as “the largest environmental catastrophe” in the region in recent years - Moscow Times
In three of the past four weeks, the CBS Evening News has fallen under 4 million viewers per night, with a low of just over 3.5 million in the week of March 23. ABC’s and NBC’s evening newscasts have also come in below their recent averages in that time, but the gap between second-place NBC and third-place CBS remains persistently large. Since Tony Dokoupil took over as anchor on Jan. 5 — as CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss’ first high-profile change within the division — the CBS Evening News has averaged about 4.13 million total viewers and 521,000 in the core news demographic of adults 25-54, per Nielsen. The past four weeks have been rougher: Since March 23, the CBS Evening News has drawn just 3.78 million viewers and 479,000 adults 25-54, declining 11 percent in both measures from Dokoupil’s prior average. Those are somewhat steeper drops than for ABC’s World News Tonight (-3 percent in both viewers and 25-54) and the NBC Nightly News (-7 percent in viewers, -9 percent in 25-54) have in the past four weeks, compared to the January-March period - The Hollywood Reporter
The journals….
