💶 Europe Kicks the Can, Putin Kicks Down the Door
Brussels dithers over €300 billion in frozen Russian assets—paralyzed by Belgium’s Euroclear jitters—while Moscow wages hybrid war on NATO. My take: pay less now to arm Ukraine, or pay far more later
The controversial question of how to use billions of euros in sanctioned Russian assets to support Ukraine has once again been kicked down the road to late October as Belgium continues to resist the measure. It will now be debated at the next European Council meeting on Oct. 23-24, Council President António Costa wrote in a post on X. The sticking point is how to make use of those assets to fund a loan to Ukraine without confiscating them, as that risks breaking international law and undermining the credibility of the euro on the global stage. Belgium is asking for the burden of any Russian legal reprisals be shared equally, an idea that France has backed. The European Commission has proposed a loan of €140 billion, swapping the sanctioned cash from the matured assets for a tailored debt contract with Euroclear, the financial institution currently guarding the deposits. It sees this as a clever workaround to avoid expropriating them, which could breach international law. “Taking Putin’s money and leaving the risks with us. That’s not going to happen,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever said last week. As Euroclear is based in Belgium, the country would bear the brunt of Russian legal action - Politico
My hot take analysis: Brussels is still kicking the can down the road on nearly €300 billion in frozen Russian assets, paralyzed by Belgium’s fear of denting Euroclear’s reputation and undermining the euro. But here’s the brutal truth: delaying now will be far more costly later. If Europe refuses to fund Ukraine’s ability not just to defend, but to strike Russia’s critical infrastructure—like oil refineries that bankroll the war—the continent will soon be paying a much higher bill. That bill won’t be measured in euros on balance sheets, but in bomb shelters, crumbling economies, and Russian troops testing NATO’s borders. European leaders have sleepwalked through this war, failing to prepare their own electorates for the hard reality: Putin does not intend to stop at Ukraine. Without red lines, without resolve, he will push further into Europe. The choice is simple—pay less now, or pay much, much more later.
Russia’s “hybrid war” against NATO is only just beginning, Denmark’s prime minister warned. Speaking ahead of a meeting of European leaders where they’re set to discuss regional security, Mette Frederiksen told the Financial Times that the military alliance must step up its response to Russian aggression after repeated cyberattacks and incursions into its airspace. Latvia’s defense minister gave similar warnings, saying Europe is “not formally at war, but we are not at peace, we are in hybrid warfare,” including alleged Russian sabotage and signal jamming. Officials believe recent moves by Russia’s ally Belarus to apparently encourage thousands of migrants to cross into EU countries is part of that hybrid warfare: An attempt to seed a humanitarian crisis in the bloc - Politico
Italy’s leader Giorgia Meloni warned earlier Russia’s “increasing provocations” could be a way to distract from Moscow’s failed summer offensive. (ICYMI: In recent weeks, drones have violated Polish, Romanian, Danish and Norwegian airspace.) But Russia’s recent “poke and probe” hybrid operations are not a form of diversion, Antonio Missiroli, former NATO Assistant Secretary-General and former director of the EU Institute for Security Studies told POLITICO. The incursions “aim at testing and provoking Europeans at a time when U.S. support for Ukraine is diminishing and transatlantic solidarity is in doubt,” he said.
A vote to end the U.S. government shutdown hours after it began failed Wednesday, as Democrats in the Senate held firm to the party’s demands to fund health care subsidies that President Donald Trump and Republicans refuse to extend. The tally showed cracks in the Democrats’ resolve, but the outcome also left no breakthrough. Blame was being cast on all sides on the first day of the shutdown. The White House and Congress failed to strike an agreement to keep programs and services open, throwing the country into a new cycle of uncertainty. At issue are tax credits that have made health insurance through the Affordable Care Act more affordable for millions of people since the COVID-19 pandemic. The credits are set to expire at the end of the year if Congress doesn’t extend them — which would more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay for health insurance premiums, according to a KFF analysis.
The Office of Management and Budget has told federal agencies to plan mass reductions in force within the next few days, in addition to furloughs. All administrations get some leeway to choose which services to freeze and which to maintain in a shutdown. FBI investigators, air traffic controllers and those supporting Trump’s immigration crackdown are just some of the workers who will continue working during the shutdown - AP
The U.S. Transportation Department said on Tuesday more than 11,000 employees at the Federal Aviation Administration, about a quarter of its staff, would be furloughed if government funding lapses. U.S. airlines have warned that a partial federal government shutdown at midnight (0400 GMT) could strain American aviation and slow flights, as air traffic controllers and security officers would be forced to work without pay and other functions would be halted - Reuters
Organisers of the Global Sumud Flotilla say Israeli naval forces intercepted its vessels late Wednesday as they attempted to break an Israeli blockade. “Around 8:30 pm Gaza time (1730 GMT), several vessels of the Global Sumud Flotilla, including the Alma, Sirius and Adara, were illegally intercepted and boarded by Israeli occupation forces in international waters,” the flotilla said. “Beyond the confirmed interceptions, live streams and communications with several other vessels have been lost,” the statement added. Meanwhile, Italy’s largest union has called a general strike for Friday to protest the treatment of the Global Sumud Flotilla. Meanwhile, protests have erupted in a number of Italian cities, including in Naples where demonstrators halted train traffic at the main station after reports that around 20 unidentified vessels were seen approaching the flotilla. “The aggression against civilian ships that were carrying Italian citizens is an extremely serious matter,” the CGIL union said, calling the strike which other smaller unions said they would join - France 24
At least 69 people have been killed and dozens injured after a powerful 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck the central Philippines late on Tuesday. The province of Cebu, which suffered the brunt of the damage, declared a state of calamity early on Wednesday, after thousands spent the night on the streets amid repeated aftershocks. One Cebu resident told the BBC he was among them, adding that power and water supplies were cut off. He says the voices of crying children could be heard around him, adding that they were “traumatised”. The earthquake comes barely more than a week after the country was hit by back-to-back typhoons which killed more than 20 people. Most of the earthquake victims were from Bogo, a small town on one of the largest islands in the Visayas Islands, the Philippines’ central region - and the place closest to the earthquake’s epicentre.- BBC
New research from the Center for Strategic & International Studies found that through the first half of 2025, left-wing domestic terror attacks outnumbered far-right attacks for the first time in over 30 years. The researchers analyzed a data set of 750 domestic attacks and plots from January 1, 1994, to July 4, 2025, which showed that right-wing attacks have historically been more frequent in the U.S., with 152 far-right attacks since 2016 compared to 41 far-left attacks. However, at least five left-wing plots or attacks have already been recorded in 2025, compared to one right-wing attack - Axios
The Canadian government is warning citizens who list “X” as their gender on their passports could have problems entering the U.S. In a change made earlier this week, the Department of Global Affairs added an advisory to its United States travel advice page for 2SLGBTQ+ Canadian passport holders. “While the Government of Canada issues passports with an ‘X’ gender identifier, it cannot guarantee your entry or transit through other countries,” it wrote. “You might face entry restrictions in countries that do not recognize the ‘X’ gender identifier.” The move comes months after U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order directing the U.S. government to only recognize two sexes: male and female. The order also directed that all documents issued by the U.S. federal government refer to “sex” rather than “gender.” - CBC
The journals…
You write, "The sticking point is how to make use of those assets to fund a loan to Ukraine without confiscating them, as that risks breaking international law and undermining the credibility of the euro on the global stage. "
If international law prohibits confiscating the assets of bloodthirsty psychopathic killers, screw international law, ignore it, and DO THE RIGHT THING.
Here's the truth behind the worry of "undermining the credibility of the euro". EU bankers want to keep on profiting from managing the money of psychopaths like Putin. EU leaders are simply lying to their publics. EU leaders want to protect the bankers, at the cost of continuing to put their citizens at unnecessary risk. Over three years of inexcusable delays, it's all just BS.
The $300 billion of Russian money in EU and American banks is enough money to build 300,000 Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles, way more than are needed to crash Russia's oil business and win this war. EU leaders could save Ukraine and end the threat to the EU without spending a dime of EU taxpayers money. But instead they are worried about the profits of bankers who are already rich.
The function of journalists at this point should be to very publicly shove this reality down the throats of EU leaders so that they have to choke on it until they stop screwing around and do the right thing. Really, honest to God, the endless dithering while innocent people die is just completely inexcusable.