Europe at the Brink, Ukraine on the Edge
As EU leaders bicker over frozen Russian assets and joint debt, Ukraine faces looming blackouts, shrinking drone production, and intensifying Russian attacks - with little margin left for delay
With a critical EU summit in Brussels underway, Ukraine’s war effort is colliding head-on with Europe’s political paralysis. Diplomats are scrambling for an 11th-hour compromise to unlock tens of billions in desperately needed aid, even as familiar north-south divisions over joint debt once again fracture EU unity. At stake is not just Kyiv’s balance sheet, but its ability to keep the lights on, the drones flying, and the front line intact.
President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued an unusually blunt warning: without fresh assistance by spring, Ukraine will be forced into painful trade-offs, including a sharp reduction in drone production - a cornerstone of its defense strategy. His appeal comes as Russian forces intensify strikes on critical energy infrastructure, pushing Ukraine’s power grid to its most precarious state since the first year of the invasion, with prolonged nationwide blackouts now a real possibility.
The contrast could hardly be starker. While Europe agonizes over legal mechanisms and political risk, Russia continues to press its advantage on the battlefield - even as ordinary Russians tighten their belts at home, cutting New Year’s spending under the strain of inflation and a war-distorted economy. Meanwhile, Washington, which increasingly appears to be advancing Moscow’s interests throughout this tortuous peace process, is pressing Kyiv and European capitals toward a rapid settlement - on American terms.
From Brussels boardrooms to darkened Ukrainian cities, the message is the same: delay carries consequences - and Ukraine may be running out of time.
Yet even as Zelensky pleads for outside help, pressure at home is mounting. Across Ukraine, patience is fraying under punishingly long power outages - including in Odesa, where exhausted residents have resorted to blocking roads in protest. On social media, Ukrainians - many from the younger, urban base that propelled Zelensky to office - are increasingly drawing a direct line, rightly or wrongly, between the rolling blackouts and a sprawling $100-million corruption scandal that has rocked the energy sector. Since the scandal surfaced, public trust in national institutions has reportedly plunged by as much as 40 percent, deepening a sense that the war is now being fought not only against Russia, but against dysfunction at home.
Diplomats are working on a long-shot 11th-hour compromise to salvage a deal on sending vital financial aid to Ukraine at Thursday’s high-stakes EU leaders’ summit. On Wednesday evening Europe’s leaders were split into irreconcilable camps, at least publicly, and seemed unlikely to agree on how to fund Kyiv, thanks partly to the reemergence of the same bitter north-south divisions over joint debt that torpedoed EU unity during the eurozone crisis. Only a few hours before the 27 leaders gather in Brussels, two opposing groups are crossing swords over whether to issue a loan to Ukraine based on frozen Russian central bank reserves, largely held by the Euroclear bank in Belgium. Germany along with Nordic and Eastern European countries say there is no alternative to that scheme. But they are running into hardening resistance from Belgium and Italy, which are gunning for Plan B: Support for Kyiv based on EU debt guaranteed by the bloc’s common budget. Bulgaria, Malta, Hungary and Slovakia are also against the use of the assets. Agreeing such an EU joint debt scheme would give a crucial lifeline to Ukraine’s shattered public finances as its coffers risk running dry as early as next April. Despite growing political pressure on the EU to prove it can rise to meet the existential challenges facing Ukraine, diplomats from the rival camps were often skeptical on Wednesday that a compromise could be found - Politico
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a press conference in Brussels that if Ukraine doesn’t get fresh assistance in the spring, it will be forced into making painful sacrifices, including “significantly” reduced drone production.
“It is indeed a threat: 45 to 50 billion in deficit for sure,” Zelenskyy told reporters. “The deficit can be even larger; we don’t know for sure how the events will unfold next year. We’re doing everything to end the war….Such a deficit is not about the front line,” he added. “It’s overall about the capacity of Ukraine to fight. There are high risks for Ukraine. So I hope that the decision will be positive today.” Zelenskyy said the reparations loan was not only about financing but also about accountability to make sure that Russia pays for the damages it has caused - Euronews
Russian forces launched a massive drone attack on the central city of Cherkasy, injuring six people, authorities said. Ihor Taburets, head of the regional military administration, said that Russian forces targeted critical infrastructure, leaving part of the city without power. Overnight attacks left cut power supplies to more than 180,000 consumers in the Cherkasy, Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhya, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions, but electricity had been restored to most of them, acting Energy Minister Artem Nekrasov said - RFE/RL
The United Kingdom is preparing to deploy peacekeepers to Ukraine, according to The i-Paper. The British military has reportedly begun advanced preparations by buying kit and finalizing potential troop movements, sources told the newspaper. The Ministry of Defence has begun its ‘notice to move’ process enabling commanders to deploy troops if called upon. Defence Secretary John Healey says Britain expects to provide ‘troops on the ground and jets in the air’ to maintain peace in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s power grid is in its most dire state since the first year of the full-scale invasion, and a total collapse into prolonged, nationwide blackouts is possible as a result of ongoing bombardment by Russian forces, the CEO of the country’s state-owned grid operator told Semafor. A combination of new distributed energy resources, clever engineering, and military defenses are so far working well to keep Ukraine’s battered electric grid relatively protected, Vitaly Zaichenko, the newly appointed boss of Ukrenergo, said in an interview. But new bureaucratic measures are needed, he said, to defend his company against the corruption that remains pervasive in Ukraine’s energy industry, despite recent high-profile investigations of officials close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In recent weeks, Kyiv and other cities have faced daily power cuts spanning 12 or more hours, in some cases for days at a time. Zaichenko added that Russian forces are increasingly honing in on a relatively small number of transmission stations that keep the eastern half of the country connected to nuclear power plants in the west, which after the devastation of many large coal plants are Ukraine’s most vital remaining source of baseload power generation. When these substations face a barrage that often includes dozens of drones and several ballistic or cruise missiles at once, he said, “no air defense system in the world can protect from that kind of attack.” - Semafor
Russians plan to cut their spending on New Year’s celebrations in 2025 amid economic pressure, the Kommersant business daily reported Wednesday, citing consumer surveys and analysts. Households expect to spend an average of 14,000 rubles ($175) on the holiday, according to a poll by online marketplace Avito. The figure covers all preparations, including food and ready-made meals, table decorations, clothing, gifts and venue and equipment rentals. That would be nearly half the expected amount for New Year’s 2024, when Russians planned to spend about 26,000 rubles ($325), including 17,500 rubles ($219) on food and 8,500 rubles ($106) on gifts, according to a study by market research firm Nielsen.
Rising inflation and higher prices for food, utilities and clothing have pushed consumers into a savings mindset, Alexander Safonov, a professor at the Financial University under the Russian government, told Kommersant. “People have restricted their purchases and spending, including on New Year’s celebrations. No matter how much one earns, the general trend is to reduce one’s spending,” Safonov said. Food remains the biggest cost, though consumers are opting for cheaper products and abandoning delicacies - Moscow Times
Even though the generals in Myanmar vowed to wipe out the industrial-scale cyberscam centers that have taken root in the country, the fraud goes on - according to an investigation by the Associated Press. Last October, in response growing international pressure, they started by raiding and then bombing KK Park — a notorious compound that has become a symbol of impunity in the battle against one of the most lucrative criminal industries in the world. It’s too early to say whether KK Park will be abandoned, repurposed or rebuilt over time. But even if KK Park were to close, it’s just one of around 30 scam compounds along Myanmar’s border with Thailand — one indication that the crackdown may not turn out to be as deep or long-lasting as Myanmar’s military rulers would like it to appear. The Associated Press found that at least two scam compounds in the area continued to use Starlink to get online even after SpaceX announced it had cut off service. And there are other signs the scam industry is adapting fast: The physical damage to KK Park sent thousands of workers scattering to other scam companies in Myanmar and abroad, interviews with current and former scam center workers show. Telegram is popping with job ads for newly displaced workers. And work has continued uninterrupted at other scam centers in Myanmar, where people trafficked from around the world still wait to be rescued. “Even if you destroy buildings, if you haven’t arrested the heads of the transnational syndicates behind this, seized their wealth and put them in jail, it’s not a real crackdown yet,” said Jay Kritiya, the coordinator of the Civil Society Network for Human Trafficking Victim Assistance. For a while, it looked as if growing American pressure on foreign scam centers through sanctions, prosecutions and a new, high-level Scam Center Strike Force, was having swift impact as Myanmar prepares for national elections, which have been widely criticized as a sham effort to legitimize the army’s 2021 seizure of power. But where all the people went — and what that portends for the future of a criminal industry the FBI says cost Americans more than $16 billion last year — remain open questions.
The Trump administration announced on Wednesday $11.1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, the largest ever U.S. weapons package for the island which is under increasing military pressure from China. The Taiwan arms sale announcement is the second under U.S. President Donald Trump’s current administration, and comes as Beijing ramps up its military and diplomatic pressure against Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims. The proposed arms sales cover eight items, including HIMARS rocket systems, howitzers, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Altius loitering munition drones and parts for other equipment, Taiwan’s defence ministry said in a statement. “The United States continues to assist Taiwan in maintaining sufficient self‑defence capabilities and in rapidly building strong deterrent power and leveraging asymmetric warfare advantages, which form the foundation for maintaining regional peace and stability,” it added. The package must be approved by the U.S. Congress, where Taiwan has widespread cross-party support. In a series of separate statements announcing details of the weapons deal, the Pentagon said the arms sales serve U.S. national, economic and security interests by supporting Taiwan’s continuing efforts to modernise its armed forces and to maintain a “credible defensive capability”. - Reuters
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ordered his country’s navy to escort oil tankers, risking a confrontation with US forces that have been ordered to blockade the South American nation. US President Donald Trump’s decision to restrict oil shipments from Venezuela also risks spilling out into a wider conflict: China, which buys the vast majority of Venezuela’s crude, accused the US of “bullying” Caracas. Venezuela has asked for a UN Security Council meeting to discuss the “ongoing US aggression,” which could worsen the country’s economic crisis — oil makes up around 80% of Venezuela’s exports. Meanwhile, Trump allies are working to set up a White House meeting with Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, Semafor’s politics team revealed - Semafor
A former anaesthetist has been jailed for life in France for intentionally poisoning 30 patients, 12 of them fatally. Frédéric Péchier, 53, was convicted Friday at the end of a four-month trial in the eastern city of Besançon. In one of France’s biggest ever medical malpractice cases, Péchier was found to have introduced chemicals like potassium chloride or adrenaline into the infusion bags of patients. His youngest victim, a four-year-old child, survived two cardiac arrests during a routine tonsil surgery in 2016. The oldest victim was 89. “You are Doctor Death, a poisoner, a murderer. You bring shame on all doctors,” said prosecutors last week. “You have turned this clinic into a graveyard.” The chemicals Péchier added triggered cardiac arrest or haemorrhaging in patients, which required emergency intervention in the operating theatre. This was often provided by Péchier himself, who was then able to pose as the patient’s saviour - BBC
The journals…..
Solid overview of how multiple crises are colliding simultaneously. The $11.1B Taiwan arms package buried at the end is actually huge, it's the biggest ever and includes some asymetric capabilities like HIMARS and loitering munitions that could genuinely complicate any PRC amphibious scenario. The timing's intersting too because it signals that even with all the Ukraine paralysis, Washington's still commited to Pacific deterrence. I worked on defense procurement contracts few years back and packages this size usually take months to finalize, so this was probly in the works before the current EU summit mess.