EU Becomes 'Vassal State' in Trump’s Trade Gambit
A skewed deal hands Trump sweeping power over Brussels and sets the stage for similar US moves in Asia and the Americas. French up in arms.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to a framework deal with the US whereby the EU will be charged 15% tariffs on most imports, commit to purchasing US$750 billion in US energy exports and invest $600 billion in the US economy, some of which will be military purchases. US tariffs on EU steel and aluminum exports will remain at 50% while the EU agreed not to tariff the US at all. The alternative to this lopsided arrangement was for Trump to impose his threatened 30% tariffs by August 1. The EU’s macroeconomic strength was greatly weakened over the past 3.5 years as a result of the anti-Russian sanctions that it imposed in solidarity with the US on what had hitherto been its cheapest and most reliable energy supplier. It was therefore already at a critical disadvantage in any prospective trade war. The EU’s failure to reach a major trade deal with China since Trump’s return to office, evident during their most recent summit late last week, made Sunday’s outcome a fait accompli in hindsight. The end result is that the EU just subordinated itself as the US’s largest-ever vassal state. The US’s 15% tariffs on most imports will reduce EU production and profits, thus making a recession more likely. The bloc’s commitment to purchasing more expensive US energy will become more onerous in that event. Likewise, its pledge to buy more US arms will undermine the “ReArm Europe Plan”, with the combined effect of the aforesaid concessions further ceding the EU’s already reduced sovereignty to the US. The grand strategic importance of the EU subordinating itself as the US’s largest-ever vassal state is therefore that it places the US on the path of restoring its unipolar hegemony via sequential trade deals as it likely sets its sights on the Americas next before finally taking on Asia. There’s no guarantee that the US will succeed, and a series of lopsided trade deals with major economies would only partially restore US-led unipolarity, but Trump’s moves still represent a possibly existential threat to multipolarity - Andrew Korybko (via Asia Times)
The US-EU trade deal, clinched in a ballroom at Donald Trump’s golf resort in Scotland on Sunday, has been criticised by France’s prime minister and business leaders across Germany. France’s prime minister, François Bayrou, said Europe had submitted to the US, on a “dark day” for the union. “It is a dark day when an alliance of free peoples, gathered to affirm their values and defend their interests, resolves to submission,” Bayrou posted on X. The powerful BDI federation of German industrial groups said the accord would have “considerable negative repercussions”, while the country’s VCI chemical trade association said the accord left rates “too high”. Ireland, one of the EU’s top exporters to the US, said on Sunday it welcomed the deal for bringing “a measure of much-needed certainty”, but that it “regrets” the baseline tariff, in a statement by its deputy prime minister, Simon Harris - Guardian
“It will bring stability,” Ms. von der Leyen said at a news conference with Mr. Trump in Scotland on Sunday. “It will bring predictability. That’s very important for our businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.” In a news release on Sunday, Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of Germany, cheered the deal but added, almost wistfully, “I would have certainly welcomed further facilitation of trans-Atlantic trade.”
The framework agreement will likely not do much for economic growth on either side. But it avoids new fissures on other foreign policy issues, particularly the war in Ukraine, The New York Times reported. It said the deal “certainly won’t help the continental economy — but isn’t as bad as it could have been.”
Euronews said the deal represents a painful concession, considering the talks began with von der Leyen offering a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement. Through the back-and-forth process, von der Leyen repeatedly warned that "all options", including a never-used instrument against economic coercion, were on the table in case of an undesirable scenario. It added the saga might soon take another twist: next week, a federal appeals court in the US will begin hearing arguments in a closely-watched lawsuit challenging Trump's authority to slap across-the-board tariffs under the pretext of a national emergency.
Reporting on the trade deal, Politco reported that von der Leyen had to dash to his Turnberry golf resort in Scotland, where he is enjoying the peace and quiet and a summer break from world affairs. Even so, von der Leyen still had to wait until the American president had spent most of the day walking the greens and then, in front of the hastily assembled press pack, fulminating against the horrors of windmills, Politico wrote. “The golf was beautiful,” Trump told reporters. “Even though I own it, it’s probably the best course in the world. And I look over the horizon and I see nine windmills at the end of the 18th. I say, isn’t that a shame?”
The end result is that the EU just subordinated itself as the US’s largest-ever vassal state. The US’s 15% tariffs on most imports will reduce EU production and profits, thus making a recession more likely - Andrew Korybko in Asia Times
Israeli forces open fired on Palestinians waiting for food at sites in Gaza, killing at least 31 and wounding many others, with more than 70 dying in attacks since dawn. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says “nothing can justify the obliteration of Gaza that has unfolded before the eyes of the world” during talks on a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine at the UN. At least 14 more Palestinians have died of malnutrition over the last day including a baby. It’s a very grim reality at a time when it’s supposed to be safe for Palestinians to move around and get food supplies. The general sentiment on the ground is a mix of frustration and hope for the continuation of these aid deliveries to the Strip. But what has been sent remains a trickle compared to the needs of Gaza’s population. The United Nations’ humanitarian chief tells Al Jazeera while Israel’s decision to allow more aid into Gaza is welcome, it is still just a “drop in the ocean” as severe restrictions continue to block life-saving deliveries - Al Jazeera
US President Donald Trump sets new deadline of "10 or 12 days" for Putin to agree to a Ukraine deal, and says he will make an official announcement "tonight or tomorrow.” Trump made the comments during a meeting at his Turnberry golf course in Scotland with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Two weeks ago, Trump threatened "very severe tariffs" on Russia's trading partners "if we don't have a deal in 50 days"
Trump now says "there's no reason to wait" and he may impose sanctions and secondary tariffs - BBC
My hot take comment: US President Donald Trump has again shifted his self-imposed deadline for an Ukraine “deal,” telling reporters at his Turnberry golf course that Vladimir Putin now has “10 or 12 days” to agree. Just two weeks ago, he threatened massive tariffs on Russia’s trading partners unless a deal emerged within 50 days. Here’s the problem: there’s a real possibility that Trump’s threats will be taken as seriously as his much-mocked golfing ethics. By constantly moving the goalposts, he’s turning once-solid red lines into dotted or grey ones. That ambiguity leaves both allies and adversaries unsure whether his warnings are real — or just another bluff to be ignored.
The office of Gov. Gavin Newsom of California joined in with an online barrage of claims that President Donald Trump was caught on camera cheating at golf. The 79-year-old president made time for a round or two while in Scotland visiting his own golf course in Turnberry. However footage from a game on Sunday prompted much debate online. Two men in red vests bearing the name of the Trump Turnberry Resort are seen walking ahead of the president—who is driving a golf buggy—as they approach a bunker. One man appears to lean down and toss a ball behind him and towards Trump, who is getting out of the golf cart. Newsom’s press office re-posted the video on X Sunday with the caption, “Trump. Rigging the game. We’re shocked!” Sportswriter Rick Reilly, who authored the book, Commander in Cheat: How Golf Explains Trump, posted on X, “Well I’m just personally very disappointed in him.” The author added, “His caddies also tee him up in the rough, toss his ball out of bunkers, and roll back six footers to him. How else is a 79-year-old fat guy supposed to win championships?” Reilly said in 2023, “Trump doesn’t just cheat at golf. He throws it, boots it, and moves it. He lies about his lies. He fudges and foozles and fluffs.” He claims that at one club Trump kicked his golf ball so far he was nicknamed Pele after the soccer player. However some users claimed the viral footage from Scotland was not cheating, merely a drop–known as a “provisional”–after a ball was hit out of bounds. MSNBC contributor Sam Stein also suggested on X that Trump’s golf ball could have been stuck in the fescue-which is a longer, drought-resistant grass used in many golf courses in the rough or around bunkers. “Lol, Love the caddie casually dropping the ball on to the rough (presumably he had it in the fescue) and Trump just playing it,” Stein wrote. “So good.” The Daily Beast has contacted Gov. Newsom and the White House for comment - Daily Beast
An Islamic State affiliate killed more than 40 churchgoers in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, a region already beset by government clashes with a separate rebel group. A United Nations peacekeeping force said the Allied Democratic Forces killed at least nine children and looted nearby businesses. Violent extremism has increased throughout Africa in recent years, although until lately it was mostly restricted to the Sahel region, where militias hold control over swaths of territory. The DRC has also previously clashed with a Rwanda-backed rebel group in the mineral-rich region, a conflict which has led to thousands of deaths and millions being displaced, creating one of the world’s biggest humanitarian crises - Semafor
European Union policy towards Azerbaijan has in effect given strongman President Ilham Aliyev's “a free hand", says Eldar Mamedov, a former Latvian diplomat who served as foreign policy adviser to the European Parliament's Social Democrat group. “The repression, arrests of dissidents, bloggers, and opposition voices have long strained Baku-Brussels relations," he told the BBC. "Since Russia's aggression in Ukraine, this issue virtually disappeared from the agenda." The European Union rejects the allegation. “The EU is concerned by the shrinking civic space in [Azerbaijan]," a spokesman told the BBC, and has called on Baku "to release all those arbitrarily detained for exercising their fundamental rights.” In the crosshairs of critics is the bloc’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas. When the former Estonian leader visited Baku in April, she was heavily criticised by Aliyev's opponents for emphasising "great potential" for EU-Azerbaijan ties while at least 21 leading journalists were detained in Baku. Aliyev has justified arresting journalists by the need to "protect the media landscape from external negative influences", accusing reporters of "illegally receiving funding from abroad". He has also long accused international organisations of bias and meddling in domestic politics, and the Baku offices of the UN, the International Red Cross Committee and the BBC have all been ordered to shut down. Shortly after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen declared Azerbaijan a "key partner" in EU efforts to move away from Russian natural gas. In that time, Aliyev has re-established control of the breakaway Karabakh region, causing an exodus of its entire Armenian population; he has also secured a fifth consecutive term in an election widely criticised by monitors, and cracked down on opposition and press freedom. The European Parliament called on the EU last year, external to impose sanctions on Baku and end reliance on Azerbaijan's gas exports. However, top foreign policy officials avoid publicly criticising Aliyev. The EU wants to diversify where it gets its gas, to avoid being dependent on a single supplier such as Russia. Azerbaijan is far from being the biggest player, as its overall share in EU natural gas imports remains a modest 4.3%, external, despite an uptick in supplies - BBC
More than 900 Thai workers are owed millions of US dollars by the factory owner of Body Fashion Thailand Limited, and the prominent European and American brands who ordered their clothing manufactured there. Over the course of several months, the owner of Body Fashion illegally terminated the entire workforce from two factories in Nakhon Sawan and Samut Prakan without a single dollar in severance being paid to any worker, many of whom had worked at the factories for over a decade. Clear and decisive Thai court rulings requiring the workers be paid severance pay, in line with Thai labor law, have been repeatedly ignored by the factory owner. Now Thai and international groups are stepping up to demand the factory owner, as well as the European and American clothing brands that sourced from Body Fashion [namely the Austrian company Huber Holding (owner of the brands Hanro, HOM, Huber Bodywear, and Skiny), the Swiss company Triumph, and the American brands Lane Bryant and Victoria’s Secret pay the workers what they are owed. At stake is an estimated $US 7.6 million in severance pay owed to the more than 900 Thai garment workers who worked at Body Fashion Thailand Limited. In recent years, Thailand has been at the center of historic victories for supply chain accountability victories for workers and trade unions. For example, in 2022, a coalition of trade union and worker activists secured a $US 8.3 million settlement from Victoria’s Secret for more than 1,000 Thai garment workers who previously made Victoria Secret’s products at the Brilliant Alliance Thailand factory. At the time, this was the largest severance pay theft settlement in the history of the global garment industry. Ensuring international brands meet their obligations is a burning issue for workers in Thailand, and globally. The Body Fashion case is unique and potentially precedent setting for several reasons. First, the huge amount owed to workers makes this one of the largest instances of severance pay theft in the history of the global garment industry. Second, the owner of the factory is also the CEO of one the main brands that sourced from Body Fashion. - FCCT
Watch: My latest video from Lviv’s historic Lychakiv Cemetery (Личаківський цвинтар). I’ve returned to this solemn site many times since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. On this visit, I wanted to take a fresh look at how the cemetery has changed — and how it now starkly reflects Ukraine’s mounting battlefield losses.
The journals…
