WAR IN UKRAINE: March 29, 2022
LATEST FROM ISTANBUL:
Russia will "drastically reduce combat operations" around Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, its deputy defence minister says. He is among officials in Istanbul for face-to-face talks with a Ukrainian delegation. Turkey's President Erdogan, who hosted the talks, says today's outcome was significant progress. But US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says there is a difference between what Russia says and what it does. The mayor of Chernihiv says "time will tell" if the Russians stick to their word. And a Russian negotiator warns the de-escalation is "not a ceasefire" - BBC
As I said on CBS News earlier and repeated on ABC Australia, one has to look at the wording very carefully - what does ‘drastically reduce’ imply? Since 2014, when the Russians illegally annexed Crimea and occupied the Donbas, they have violated one ceasefire agreement after the other - including one signed in December 2019 in Paris at a Normandy Format summit attended by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
One immediate reaction to the Russian promise to hold back fire comes from Ukrainian journalist Nastya Stanko of Hromadske: “I remember (2015) Minsk-2 very well, I was just near Debaltseve, I was standing at the demarcation line at 12 o'clock at night, waiting for silence. I heard something else. While the presidents were negotiating, the Russians cut off Debaltseve.”
LATEST DEVELOPMENTS: Day 34
Negotiators from Ukraine have arrived in Turkey for peace talks. They said they’d encountered unspecific logistics delays. The talks are being held at the level of presidential adviser and follow almost daily video discussions that have been taking place. Russia’s deputy defense minister Alexander Fomin is leading the Russian delegation, which also includes negotiator Vladimir Medinsky, CNN reported. The Ukrainian delegation is headed by Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, and Servant of the People MP and businessman Davyd Arakhamia.
According to the Financial Times, Russia is no longer requesting Ukraine be “denazified” and is prepared to let Kyiv join the EU if it remains militarily non-aligned as part of ceasefire negotiations. Ukraine would also promise not to develop nuclear weapons or host foreign military bases on its soil.
Before the meeting, the negotiating teams from Ukraine and Russia met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said of the talks in Istanbul: "We are not trading people, land or sovereignty. The minimum programme will be humanitarian questions, and the maximum programme is reaching an agreement on a ceasefire," he said on national television.
Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich has been spotted inside the Istanbul peace talks, according to footage broadcast by Turkish television. Reports emerged that he suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning at earlier talks along with Ukrainian negotiators. The investigative journalism outlet Bellingcat reported that the poisons were likely meant to instil fear in the negotiators rather than actually kill them.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been sending mixed signals in his negotiating position lately. Previously he has said that Russia must respect borders pre-2014 - meaning all seized territory must be returned, including the occupied Donbas and Crimea. However, during his recent interview with Russian journalists, he said that the Ukrainian armed forces did not plan to free Donbas using military force.
On the ground here in Ukraine many people have voiced concerns that Zelensky’s team will offer neutrality in return for a permanent ceasefire. The move is seen as massively politically risky for the president. Furthermore, it would raise legitimate questions on which third countries could be counted on as guarantors of any peace deal.
The Kremlin said that one should not expect a meeting between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine after the bilateral talks in Istanbul. "No. There is no progress," Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday. Full Interfax story here
According to The Times of London, Abramovich met Putin recently, presenting him with a handwritten note from President Zelensky, outlining the terms Ukraine would consider agreeing to in order to end the month-long war. Putin’s initial response was reportedly: “Tell him I will thrash them.”
The UK's Ministry of Defence believes that mercenaries from Russia's Wagner group have been sent to eastern Ukraine, with an estimated 1,000 personnel on the way.
Seven EU states issued advisories yesterday to their citizens that it is not a good idea to go to Ukraine and volunteer to fight. The advisory notes that EU citizens can do more good by providing financial support or by helping refugees.
Below: Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet at Dolmabahce Presidential Office for the peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, on March 29. (Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu Agency/)
Ukrainian skaters at the World Championships in France performed without costumes and training, but to the applause of the hall. The duo fled heavy bombardment in Kharkiv just to be able to represent Ukraine at the championships. Competitor Yurij Onyschenko described the time on ice as “thee minutes of beauty in this difficult time.”