China Builds Parallel Systems in Russian-Occupied Ukraine

A new investigation by Ukrainian outlet Babel and the Eastern Human Rights Group reveals how China is quietly embedding itself into the economic, communications, and cultural infrastructure of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories — without holding any official role.

The research, based on insider information, business interviews, and analysis of financial flows, was led by human rights advocate Pavlo Lysianskyi, who founded the Eastern Human Rights Group in 2014. Lysianskyi died in a road accident in November 2024 before completing the work; his team published the findings without him.

Telecommunications is the most visible footprint. When Russian forces capture a city, they sever Ukrainian networks and reconnect them through the company Miranda-Media using Chinese hardware. Huawei supplies servers, antennas, and routers. Around 6,000 Huawei base stations have been deployed across occupied southern and eastern Ukraine, covering not just cities but villages and road corridors.

Finance has shifted to the yuan as dollars and euros are unavailable. Promsvyazbank - which controls over 70% of financial operations in the occupied territories — had opened 79 yuan exchange points by end of 2025, turning over an average of 12.3 million yuan daily. This allows Russian authorities to conduct trade and payments as though Western sanctions do not exist. From February 1, 2025, businesses have been required to install online cash registers - almost all Chinese-made - giving authorities visibility over every transaction. Russia is offering tax rebates of up to 28,000 rubles per device to accelerate uptake.

Industry is also dependent on Chinese involvement. The Karansky quarry in Donetsk runs on Chinese equipment maintained by Chinese engineers; without them, production halts. Its output is used for Russian road and housing construction in the occupied territories.

Education and culture are the newest front. A Chinese citizens’ initiative group is registering a private school for approximately 300 Chinese students in occupied Luhansk, operating under Russian educational standards. The school will teach them Russian and preparing them for eventual enrolment in Russian universities, according to RFE/RL.

Cultural centers have opened in the occupied territories - offering Chinese language, calligraphy, painting, tea ceremonies, and Lunar New Year celebrations to local residents.

Media operations follow a similar pattern of deniability. Chinese bloggers and journalists, carrying no official status from Beijing, travel with Russian propaganda teams to front-line cities and produce content that mirrors Russian narratives - a structure that allows China to avoid sanctions by framing it as independent citizen journalism.

One of the media visits was by Liu Yuguang, a war correspondent of Hong Kong-based Phoenix TV, whose largest shareholder is a company wholly owned by the Chinese government. Lu is a well-known personality in China, and his career and background have been reported on by Tencent, Sohu and Sina, The Guardian reported. He is a former navy officer in the People’s Liberation Army, who lived in Moscow for several decades and covered events including the Chechen war, where he reportedly had Russian military protection. He has received multiple awards from the Russian government and military for his reporting. He has previously said that his outlet has good relations with intelligence figures in Russia, The Guardian reported.

“His reports from Ukraine have included Russian disinformation such as claims of more than 1,000 people held hostage as human shields by Ukrainian militants. However, his interviews with Ukrainian civilian victims, and criticism of Chinese internet users objectifying Ukrainian women, have also drawn nationalistic and pro-Russia trolling, accusing him of creating pro-Ukraine “rumours” and being “crooked assed”, an internet slang term for having bias or lacking objectivity,” The Guardiuan reported.

Iran, meanwhile, has emerged as the end buyer for the occupied territories’ raw output. The trading company managing ten mines in Luhansk region added Iran to its export list in 2025. Occupied administrations have also arranged food exports to Iranian buyers. Deals are being brokered at Russian economic forums, including KazanForum, and occupied regional authorities have a confirmed schedule of participation in international events through 2026.

The overall picture the investigation presents: Russia seizes the land, China provides the systems that keep it functioning, and Iran purchases the output - a division of roles that has quietly solidified over the past two years.

In a rare and pointed intervention on American soil, King Charles III used an address to a joint session of Congress to deliver a veiled but unmistakable defense of NATO unity, Ukraine, and the rule of law - drawing a contrast with Donald Trump’s more skeptical view of transatlantic alliances. Invoking NATO’s collective defense clause following the September 11 attacks, Charles reminded lawmakers: “In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, when NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time … we answered the call together, as our people have done so for more than a century, shoulder to shoulder.” The reference underscored alliance solidarity at a time when Trump has repeatedly criticized NATO partners for not doing enough. The king also called for “unyielding resolve” in support of Ukraine and pointed to the Magna Carta’s enduring principle that even a monarch is subject to the law - a symbolic nod to democratic norms. His remarks were framed as both a celebration of the U.S.-U.K. “special relationship” and an implicit warning against abandoning it. Trump, hosting Charles with full state visit pageantry, struck a more upbeat tone, calling Britain America’s closest ally and highlighting shared military history. A White House social media post showing the two leaders laughing — captioned “TWO KINGS” — leaned into criticism branding Trump as overly monarchical. The visit also exposed tensions over the Middle East. At a White House state dinner, Trump said Charles shared his position that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon, declaring: “We’re never going to let that opponent have a nuclear weapon.” The king, however, made no mention of Iran in his own remarks, underscoring the constitutional limits of his role. A Buckingham Palace spokesperson later clarified: “The King is naturally mindful of his Government’s long-standing and well-known position on the prevention of nuclear proliferation.” The speech - only the second by a sitting British monarch to Congress - comes amid broader strains over NATO burden-sharing, Iran policy, and the future of Western alliances. Charles echoed Keir Starmer, warning: “We must not disregard everything that has sustained us for the last 80 years. Instead, we must build on it.” He also condemned recent violence against journalists, stating such attacks “will never succeed,” and urged global action on climate change, warning of the “collapse of critical natural systems.”

US President Donald Trump told aides to prepare for a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz as peace talks with Iran falter, deepening worries over the global economy’s prospects. The World Bank estimated that an extended disruption could drive energy prices up by almost a quarter compared to 2025; the strait cannot quickly be replaced, Morningstar analysts warned in a note to clients. Iran appears to be playing for time in talks, betting that it can withstand economic pressures for longer than the US. “We thought we were getting a TACO,” Bloomberg’s Javier Blas said, referring to the acronym Trump Always Chickens Out. “But so far we are getting a NACHO: Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.” - Semafor

Estonia is preparing to fend off Russian soldiers, even after the fighting in Ukraine is over. The small Baltic nation has blocked some 1,300 Russian ex-combatants from entering the country this year, according to its foreign ministry. Now it’s pushing Brussels to ban former Russian soldiers from entering the EU, and to keep them out long after the guns have fallen silent. “You cannot allow these people who are committing the crimes, who are raping the women, who are killing the children and civilians on the battlefield, that we allow these people to come to Europe,” Estonia’s Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told POLITICO. “It’s not the question of Estonia, it’s the question of the European security,” he added. Estonia first raised the idea at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in January. Though critics warn a blanket ban could also hit coerced conscripts and deserters, the proposal drew the support of Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief and a former Estonian prime minister. The idea enjoys the support of “many member states,” Kallas said in January. In late March, the EU’s national leaders asked the European Commission to explore “possible ways to address” the issue. Kallas has promised concrete proposals in time for an EU summit in June. Lithuania has also pledged to maintain a blacklist, alongside strict entry restrictions that already amount to a near-total ban on Russian citizens. Estonia frames the proposal as both a security and a moral imperative. “People committing the war crimes … should not walk on the European countries’ soil,” Pevkur said. Estonian officials warn that former soldiers could be recruited by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s security services for sabotage or espionage in Europe. “I’m sure Putin will push these people to Europe,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told journalists in January. “We know already hybrid attacks today, but can you imagine these hundreds of thousands of ex-combatants, criminals coming here?” - Politico

• Russia’s Defense Ministry said the Victory Day parade on Red Square -- an annual Kremlin spectacle celebrating the Soviet role in World War II and Moscow’s military today -- will be drastically scaled back this year, with no military vehicles or heavy weaponry on display for the first time in almost two decades. A day after the ministry confirmed late on April 28 persistent rumors that this year’s May 9 parade would be much more low-key, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman suggested the main reason was Ukrainian “terrorist activity,” clearly a reference to drone attacks Kyiv has launched as it battles against Russia’s full-scale invasion. “Against the backdrop of this terrorist threat, of course all measures to minimize danger are being taken,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. The Defense Ministry statement said the parade would include soldiers and other personnel marching. But no cadets from Russia’s most prestigious military academies would be participating, it said, and no “column of military equipment” -- a reference to a display that in past years frequently featured tanks, armored vehicles, ICBMs, and more. The annual event held just outside the Kremlin’s walls has traditionally served as a celebration of Russia’s history marking the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II, with veterans given prominent places of honor - RFE/RL

Rice farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta and Thailand’s northeast are facing a mounting cost crisis as the Middle East war ripples through global shipping and energy markets. In Vietnam’s An Giang province, farmer Nguyen Thanh Giang told The Straits Times that diesel prices have doubled and production costs have surged, while buying prices remain flat. “Some of us are seriously considering not growing the next crop,” he said. The newspaper reported that disruption is hitting exporters hard. Iraq was Thailand’s single largest rice customer, buying one million tonnes in 2025, but Thai rice exports have “totally stopped” since the war broke out, as vessels can no longer transit the Strait of Hormuz. Thailand had targeted seven million tonnes of exports in 2026. Freight costs for Vietnamese exporters have risen 25–35%, with ships rerouting around conflict zones adding up to 15 extra days of transit time. Insurance premiums and inland logistics costs are also climbing. So far, Vietnam’s export volumes are holding — 1.74 million tonnes shipped by mid-March, up 2.3% year-on-year — but prices have fallen as Vietnamese firms compete with India and Thailand for remaining markets. Profit margins for both farmers and trading companies are narrowing. Experts say Vietnam’s food security is not under immediate threat. The Mekong Delta, which produces around seven million tonnes of rice in roughly 100 days, supplies 90% of Vietnam’s rice exports — over eight million tonnes worth $4.1 billion in 2025. But analysts warn the medium-term risk is structural: as margins collapse, farmers may switch to other crops, gradually eroding the supply base. “Food security is not just about having enough rice today,” Do Ha Nam of the Vietnam Food Association told the newspaper, “but about ensuring that rice farmers continue to grow rice tomorrow.”

Japan Airlines is about to use humanoid robots as baggage handlers. It plans to launch a two-year trial at Tokyo’s Haneda airport at the beginning of May. Created by Unitree Robotics in Hangzhou, China, the bots are being used to help address the country’s labor shortage, which is coupled with a surge in inbound tourism. In total, Haneda handles around 60 million passengers a year, and forecasts suggest staff ratios are likely to worsen. Speaking to Kyodo news agency, JAL Ground Service president Yoshiteru Suzuki said the introduction of robots will “inevitably reduce the burden on workers and provide significant benefits to employees.” Humans will still perform safety tasks, Suzuki said. The robots will instead focus on handling cargo on the tarmac, with plans to eventually clean aircraft cabins. Japan has an aging population, which is contributing to a shrinking workforce. Meanwhile, the Japan National Tourism Organization says there were seven million visitors to Japan in January and February alone this year - The Daily Beast

Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions, a global energy crisis and inflation weighing on purchasing power, the French are revising their holiday plans for the summer of 2026. As a result of budgetary prudence and the search for security, fewer people in France are planning to head on holiday at all this summer, and those that are are opting for destinations closer to home – mainly in France. Geopolitical issues and security concerns have a strong influence on the decisions of French holidaymakers. According to an Ifop study carried out for Alliance France Tourisme in March 2026, 68% of French people plan to go away for at least a week, a fall of 9 points compared to 2025. Only 37% are certain they will go, down from 50% last year, “reflecting a rise in uncertainty”. However, summer holidays remain high on the list of household priorities. “This study shows that there is no collapse in the intentions of the French, who remain very attached to holidays, but that the first effects of the current situation are beginning to be felt, under the combined effect of concerns about security and tighter budget constraints,” Dominique Marcel, the President of Alliance France Tourisme, said - Euronews

The journals…..

World Briefing Hot Take:
This is how modern power really works - not just through missiles or markets, but through the quiet fusion of both. A man accused of helping compromise more than 12,000 organizations worldwide doesn’t just disappear into the shadows - he allegedly re-emerges inside a company dominating China’s EV chip supply, just as those same vehicles prepare to enter Western markets like Canada.

It’s a reminder that today’s wars don’t stay on the battlefield - they travel through code, supply chains, and consumer products. And in an era where Washington and Beijing can turn adversaries into bargaining chips overnight, the question isn’t just whether justice will be served… but what it might be traded for.

Chinese Hacker Extradited to U.S. — And Why Canada Should Be Watching

A Chinese national accused of stealing COVID-19 research from American universities and participating in one of the largest state-sponsored hacking campaigns in history appeared in a Houston federal court this weekend, following his extradition from Italy.

Xu Zewei (徐泽伟), 34, faces a nine-count federal indictment covering wire fraud, unauthorized computer access, and aggravated identity theft, according to reporting by The Bureau - a Canadian site which describes itself as entirely independent voice in investigative journalism. Prosecutors allege he worked as a contractor for China’s Ministry of State Security, targeting American universities, a Washington law firm, and ultimately compromising over 12,700 organizations worldwide as part of the HAFNIUM (which later became Silk Typhoon) hacking campaign - formally attributed to Beijing by the U.S., EU, UK, and NATO in 2021.

The Canada Connection

What makes this case particularly relevant to Canadian readers is what Xu allegedly did after the hacking stopped. His spouse told Italian police he had moved on to a senior IT role at Shanghai GTA Semiconductor - a company controlling roughly 80 percent of China’s domestic market for automotive chips used in electric vehicles. Its flagship client is BYD.

That is the same BYD now poised to enter the Canadian market in a significant way, following the landmark trade agreement Prime Minister Mark Carney negotiated during his January trip to Beijing - a deal that would give Chinese EVs substantial access to Canadian consumers.

A state-directed hacker, embedded in a strategically critical company, whose most important client is heading to Canadian showrooms.

A Geopolitical Chess Piece?

There is a further complication worth watching. Xu’s arrest - the result of rare international law enforcement coordination - may not translate into a lengthy American prosecution. With U.S.-China relations subject to the unpredictable currents of the Trump administration’s dealmaking, Xu could easily become a bargaining chip. A quiet amnesty, a prisoner exchange framed as a trade concession - these are not far-fetched outcomes. His co-conspirator, Zhang Yu (张宇), remains at large and beyond American reach entirely.

The case is a reminder that the line between China’s intelligence apparatus, its technology sector, and its commercial expansion into Western markets is about as thin as a strand of noodles - and Mr. Carney would do well to mind what he’s being served.

China’s top leadership on Tuesday pledged to strengthen the nation’s energy security and respond to external shocks by continuing to pursue a policy of rapid technological development. The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, was cited as saying by state news agency Xinhua that the economy got off to a better-than-expected start this year. The Xinhua readout did not mention the US-Israeli war on Iran, but said: “We must systematically respond to external shocks and challenges, improve energy resource security guarantee levels and counter various uncertainties with the certainty of high-quality development.” The phrase “high-quality development” refers to the pursuit of scientific and technological progress with the goal of moving China higher on the value-added ladder. China’s economy grew 5 per cent in the first quarter, at the top of its full year target range of 4.5-5% - showing higher resilience than most other economies to the energy and commodity shocks caused by the Iran war - CNA

Iran offered to end its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its blockade on the Islamic Republic, in a proposal that would postpone discussions on Tehran’s nuclear program, according to media reports. The offer emerged Monday as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Russia, a key backer of Tehran, following the cancellation of a potential weekend ceasefire talks between US and Iran in Pakistan. US President Donald Trump called off the trip by his envoys and suggested the talks could take place by phone instead. According to media reports, the Trump administration seems unlikely to accept the offer passed to Washington by Pakistan, which would leave unresolved the disagreements that led the US and Israel to strike Tehran on 28 February and kill its topmost leaders in the initial salvo of the war. “We can’t let them get away with it,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said speaking to US media outlets on Monday. “We have to ensure that any deal that is made, any agreement that is made, is one that definitively prevents them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point.” Rubio added. Despite an ongoing ceasefire, the US and Iran are locked in a standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade passes in peacetime. A US blockade which came into force mid-April has led to a dual blockade, something that Trump says is designed to prevent Tehran from selling its oil, depriving it of crucial revenue while also potentially creating a situation where Iran has to shut off production because it has nowhere to store oil. The closure has also put pressure on Trump, as oil and gasoline prices have skyrocketed ahead of crucial midterm elections, pressuring his Gulf allies, which use the waterway to export their oil and gas. On Monday, the spot price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, closed above $108 per barrel, about 50% higher than it was when the war began - Euronews

The United Arab Emirates said on Tuesday it quit OPEC and OPEC+, dealing a heavy blow to the oil exporting groups and their de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, at a time when the Iran war has caused a historic energy shock and unsettled the global economy. The stunning loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the group, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas. OPEC Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, because of Iranian threats and attacks against vessels. But the UAE exit from OPEC represents a big win for U.S. President Donald Trump, who has accused the organisation of “ripping off the rest of the world” by inflating oil prices. Trump has also linked U.S. military support for the Gulf with oil prices, saying that while the U.S. defends OPEC members they “exploit this by imposing high oil prices”. The move came after the UAE, a regional business hub and one of Washington’s most important allies, criticised fellow Arab states for not doing enough to protect it from numerous Iranian attacks during the war - Reuters

• In an interview with CNN, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei cast the move in terms of positioning the country as a leading producer at a time of growing concern about rising oil prices and tighter supply. He said the decision came after “looking at what is happening to the Strait of Hormuz and the level of withdrawal of the strategic reserves.” Al Mazrouei said the move would help oil importing nations while not having a major impact on oil prices, because of the constraints on producers sparked by the closure of the strait. “Taking the decision now will help… the producers, to not feel the pressure on prices.”

Another Russian Executive Dead: Yandex Director Drowns on the Volga

Sergei Loyter, a senior executive at Yandex - Russia’s largest technology company — has died in what authorities are describing as a drowning accident on the Volga River near Volgograd. He was 42.

Loyter, who served as Yandex’s commercial director from 2022 to 2024 and most recently headed Yango, the company’s international division, was one of three men reported missing while fishing late last week. His body was subsequently recovered along with that of his personal driver, Igor Prokhorov. A third man, local developer Sergei Nazarov, remains missing.

The circumstances have drawn immediate scrutiny. Prokhorov’s body was found with injuries to his head. No explanation for those injuries has been offered by police.

A Company Caught Between Two Worlds

Yandex’s corporate history offers important context. Once structured under a Dutch parent company, Yandex N.V., the business underwent a significant restructuring in 2024 - with the Dutch entity selling its Russian assets to a consortium of local investors. The company is now firmly re-anchored in Moscow, operating as an independent Russian entity.

Yet the impulse to hedge was clearly real. In the years preceding that restructuring, Yandex moved significant operations to Yerevan, Armenia, where its international ambitions - ride-hailing, food delivery, and other consumer services now active across multiple countries - found room to breathe outside Russia’s increasingly constrained environment. Loyter’s role at Yango, the international-facing division, placed him squarely at that fault line between Yandex’s global aspirations and its Russian reality.

The Pattern That Won’t Go Away

Loyter is now at least the twentieth senior Russian business figure to die under suspicious circumstances since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. The pattern is striking in its breadth: a potash company director found headless, the Uralkali board chairman dead, a Lukoil vice president with apparent signs of suicide, a Transneft vice president who fell from a balcony. Energy, technology, finance - no sector has been untouched. Medical professionals who publicly criticized the Kremlin’s handling of the Covid-19 crisis also mysteriously fell to their death out of building windows

Russian authorities have not indicated they are treating any of these deaths as connected. Outside Russia, fewer and fewer observers find that reassuring.

Authorities in the southern Russian port town of Tuapse on Tuesday ordered an evacuation of residents in areas near a Rosneft oil refinery after Ukraine attacked and set fire to the facility for a third time this month. “Another serious incident has occurred in Tuapse. A large-scale fire broke out at an oil refinery due to an enemy drone attack,” Krasnodar region Governor Veniamin Kondratyev wrote on Telegram. He said more than 160 emergency responders were deployed to battle the blaze. He said residents forced to leave their homes would be provided temporary shelter at a local school. In separate Ukrainian attacks on the southwestern Belgorod region, at least three people were killed, local authorities said. Russia’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted 186 Ukrainian drones between Monday night and Tuesday morning. The drones were downed in several Russian regions, including Krasnodar, as well as annexed Crimea and in the skies above the Black Sea - Moscow Times

• A super-yacht linked to one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s key allies has sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, despite the ongoing blockade of the critical shipping channel. The 142m-long (465 ft) multi-deck luxury boat, named Nord, is linked to sanctioned Russian billionaire Alexei Mordashov. It travelled from Dubai to Muscat, Oman, over the weekend - one of few private vessels to transit through the strait in recent months. Mordashov, who has close ties to Putin, is not listed as the formal owner of the Russian-flagged boat. However, Nord’s records indicate it was registered to a firm owned by his wife in 2022. Nord, estimated to be worth more than $500m (£370m), left Dubai on Friday night and arrived at Al Mouj - a marina in Oman’s capital - on Sunday morning, according to data on the Marine Traffic platform. It is not clear whether Nord gained permission from Iran to sail through the route - BBC

Starving on the Front Line: Ukraine’s Supply Crisis Exposes a Deeper Problem

While U.S. servicemen deploying to the Gulf have been complaining to their families about poor food and plumbing problems, soldiers from Ukraine’s 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Kupyansk have been going without food or water for up to nine days at a stretch - while holding one of the most contested positions on the eastern front.

Photographs of visibly emaciated soldiers, shared publicly by their wives and families, have shaken Ukrainian society and prompted General Oleksandr Syrskyi to relieve the brigade’s commander on April 24. The General Staff acknowledged that officers had concealed both battlefield losses and the true state of supply conditions from their superiors.

“He wrote to me saying, ‘I’m alive, but we’re starving,’” one soldier’s wife, Olha, told RFE/RL. Relatives reported the shortages had persisted for seven months, with soldiers fainting at their positions and unable to fight.

Military officials blamed the geography — the brigade’s positions straddle the contested Oskil River, making supply runs extremely difficult — and said some provisions were being delivered by drone. But defence analysts told RFE/RL the problem runs deeper than logistics. A culture of concealment, in which junior commanders routinely mislead superiors about conditions on the ground, has allowed critical problems to fester unaddressed.

The 14th’s ordeal is not an isolated case. Ukraine continues to struggle with patchy recruitment, inadequately trained replacements, and a decentralised system plagued by corruption allegations. More than four years into the full-scale invasion, the country’s most experienced units remain largely intact — but others are fraying badly, and the gap between official accounts and front-line reality appears to be widening.

The District of Columbia mistakenly placed several Australian flags instead of British flags ‌near the White House ahead of King Charles’s U.S. visit, although the error was quickly corrected, a D.C. Department of Transportation official said on Friday. Charles is also the head of state for Australia, ⁠but the role ⁠is largely ‌ceremonial. Fifteen Australian flags were briefly included among more than 230 flags put on display to welcome ⁠the British king when he arrives in the U.S. capital on Monday. They ‌were later replaced with the British flag, the official said. Charles’s state visit, to mark the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Declaration of Independence from ⁠British rule, is widely seen as the ⁠most high-profile trip of his ⁠reign ⁠so far. The trip will aim to shore up the two ⁠allies’ “special relationship,” which has sunk to its lowest point in 70 years amid strains surrounding the Iran war - CBC News

European air travel faces growing challenges from fuel price hikes, falling demand, and regulatory pressure, investment analysts warned. Apollo Investment Group’s chief economist said that Britain, France, and Germany - along with Australia - were the countries most vulnerable to rising jet fuel prices. Morgan Stanley told investors that it was “crunch time for EU airports” over the coming months, as the Iran war’s price hikes reduce demand for air travel. The airline industry has already been badly hit by the war: prices were up 24 percent year-on-year in March and airlines have called for reductions in passenger taxes to protect them from the worst impacts - Semafor

CBS News has ousted London bureau chief Claire Day after she clashed with editor-in-chief Bari Weiss over the network’s coverage of Iran and Gaza, The Post has learned. A CBS source told The Post that Shayndi Raice, a newly hired foreign editor from the Wall Street Journal, will lead all international coverage across CBS News and will be based out of London starting May 11. In a memo to staffers, CBS News president Tom Cibrowski said: “Our London Bureau will be moving to a new editorial leadership structure, with the introduction of a foreign editor role overseeing all international coverage.” He added that Day, who will leave the network on May 1, has been “dedicated to the craft of storytelling” and that “her work made a difference for CBS - New York Post

The journals….

A major investigation by Haaretz alleges that grain stolen from Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine has been repeatedly shipped to Israel through a covert maritime smuggling network involving deceptive shipping practices in the Black Sea. According to the report, a Russian-flagged vessel, the Abinsk, docked recently at Port of Haifa carrying wheat worth millions of dollars. Ukraine said the cargo had been stolen from occupied territories and warned Israeli authorities in advance. Kyiv said it was “concerning that despite the information provided and contacts between the parties, the vessel was allowed to unload at the port of Haifa.” Haaretz said this was not an isolated case. It reported that by 2023, at least two ships carrying allegedly stolen grain had reached Israel, while seven additional vessels displayed suspicious behavior consistent with efforts to conceal the origin of their cargo. The newspaper also cited Russian port administration logs listing more than 30 shipments of stolen goods with Israel as the destination. The investigation says ships used tactics similar to Russia’s so-called shadow fleet oil trade, including disabling automatic tracking systems, conducting clandestine ship-to-ship transfers at sea south of the Kerch Strait, and reactivating transponders only after being loaded. Such methods can make tracing cargo origins far more difficult. Among vessels named were the St. Olga, which reportedly unloaded 27,000 tons of wheat in Port of Ashdod in July 2023, and the Sword Lion, which was allegedly bound for Haifa before later diverting to Turkey after media scrutiny. Ukraine, once known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” estimates at least 15 million tons of grain have been stolen since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Kyiv argues such sales help finance President Vladimir Putin’s war effort. The findings could place pressure on both Israel and Turkey. Israel maintains one of the region’s most advanced security and customs systems, while ships moving from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean pass through the Bosphorus Strait, an area closely monitored by Turkish authorities. Asked why Israel was allowing stolen Ukrainian wheat to be smuggled in and whether action would be taken, Israel’s Foreign Ministry told Haaretz: “We have forwarded answers on the subject to our Ukrainian friends through diplomatic and professional channels.”

• Ukraine’s foreign minister said Kyiv had issued a summons for Israel’s ambassador to appear on Tuesday morning to present a protest note and request appropriate action, Euronews reported. Andrii Sybiha said “friendly Ukrainian-Israeli relations have the potential to benefit both countries,” and reiterated that “Russia’s illegal trade with stolen Ukrainian grain should not undermine them.” “It is difficult to understand Israel’s lack of appropriate response to Ukraine’s legitimate request regarding the previous vessel that delivered stolen goods to Haifa.” “Now that another such vessel has arrived in Haifa, we once again warn Israel against accepting the stolen grain and harming our relations,” Sybiha said. Israel’s foreign minister responded to Sybiha’s post on X on Monday evening, calling on Kyiv to refrain from conducting diplomatic relations on Twitter or in the media. "⁠⁠Frankly, this feels like a slap in the face given the strategic goodwill Ukraine has extended - from designating the IRGC as terrorists to criminalising antisemitism," a Ukrainian diplomatic source said.
  **World Briefing reached out to the Israeli Embassy in Kyiv for a response to the Haaretz report but received no answer as of 11pm local time.

Israel: Opposition Unites Against Netanyahu

Sources: The New York Times; Dr. Leora Danzig Leeder, Jerusalem (Substack)

Former rivals Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett announced Sunday they are merging their parties into a single opposition force called Yachad (“Together”), with Bennett as leader - the most significant challenge yet to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ahead of elections due by October.

Bennett, who called himself a “Liberal Zionist” at the press conference, laid out an ambitious agenda: immediate financial penalties for draft dodgers, an independent inquiry into the October 7 failures “on Day 1,” support for same-sex marriage and civil unions outside the Rabbinate’s authority, and public transportation on Shabbat. Dr. Danzig Leeder notes that the last two proposals put the new party on a direct collision course with the religious establishment.

Netanyahu wasted no time, posting AI-generated social media content linking the pair to their controversial former Arab coalition partner Mansour Abbas - the same playbook that worked for Likud in 2022.

Other opposition figures praised the move but haven’t yet climbed aboard. Likud remains the largest party in the polls. And some analysts think the announcement came six months too early.

The two men toppled Netanyahu once before, in 2021 - only to see their government collapse within a year. Whether the second attempt fares better, as Dr. Danzig Leeder puts it, “it’s going to be a wild ride.“​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Private jets, hurried overseas transfers and quiet visa inquiries are rattling post-election Hungary after the crushing defeat of longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, according to a report by The Guardian. The newspaper said figures tied to Orbán’s inner circle have begun moving wealth abroad in the days following the landslide victory of opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party. Assets are reportedly being shifted to destinations including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Australia and Singapore. Magyar has accused allies of the outgoing government of trying to shield fortunes amassed during Orbán’s 16 years in power before a new administration takes office in early May. On social media, he alleged that “Orbán-linked oligarchs are transferring tens of billions of forints” overseas and urged authorities to prevent suspects from fleeing. Since returning to office in 2010, Orbán and his Fidesz party have faced repeated criticism over cronyism and the concentration of wealth among politically connected businessmen. Orbán has consistently denied corruption allegations. The report also said some senior figures close to Fidesz are exploring U.S. work visa options, hoping to leverage ties with institutions linked to Donald Trump’s MAGA movement. Orbán cultivated close ideological links with parts of the American right and was openly backed during the campaign by senior U.S. conservatives. Orbán said over the weekend he would not take a parliamentary seat but plans to remain leader of Fidesz and oversee its “renewal.” He is also expected to travel to the United States later this year, according to sources cited by The Guardian. Hungary now braces for what could be a turbulent political transition, with the incoming government promising corruption probes and potential efforts to recover public wealth allegedly siphoned off during the Orbán era.

A coordinated wave of attacks by jihadist militants and separatists erupted across Mali this weekend, intensifying scrutiny of the country’s reliance on Russian support as security rapidly deteriorates. Mali has faced years of escalating insurgent violence; the ruling military junta, which pledged to restore stability in a 2020 coup, turned to Russia for assistance in its counterinsurgency campaign. But violence has not abated: Mali’s defense minister was reported killed on Sunday, and Russian mercenaries were forced to withdraw from key positions as fighters launched one of their biggest attacks since 2012. Russia has a “heavy military hand without a political strategy to address the root causes of violence” in Mali, the Carnegie Endowment wrote - Semafor

Russian President Vladimir Putin voiced strong support for Tehran in its conflict with the United States and Israel as he greeted Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi for talks in St. Petersburg on Monday. Meeting nearly two months after US and Israeli air strikes on Iran started a war that sent shock waves around the world, both Putin and Araqchi underlined the strength of ties between their countries. “We see how bravely and heroically the Iranian people are fighting for their independence, for their sovereignty,” Putin said after meeting Iran’s top diplomat. He added that he had received a message last week from Mojtaba Khamenei, who has not been seen since being announced as Iran’s new supreme leader on March 8 following the killing of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in an air strike on February 28. Putin said he was sending back “sincerest words of gratitude” and that Russia “intended to continue our strategic relationship.” Araqchi also pledged to continue the “strategic partnership” with Moscow. “They have always supported us,” he said. The mutual warm words will not go unnoticed in Washington, where US President Donald Trump is due to meet with top national-security officials later on April 27 to discuss the ongoing stalemate in discussions with Iran, according to US media reports. The rapid evolution of Russia-Iran ties, including reports that Russia has provided Iran with military intelligence during the current conflict, has also drawn attention in the US Congress - RFE/RL

• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Monday criticized the U.S. for going into the Iran war without any strategy, saying this also makes it harder to end the conflict. “The problem with conflicts like these is always the same: it’s not just about getting in; you also have to get out. We saw that all too painfully in Afghanistan, for 20 years. We saw it in Iraq,” the chancellor said while speaking Monday to students in Marsberg in the Sauerland region of Germany. The lack of U.S. strategy and the fact that the Iranians are stronger than previously thought made it hard to end the conflict now, he said. “Especially since the Iranians are negotiating very skillfully — or rather, very skillfully not negotiating,” he added. “And then letting the Americans travel to Islamabad, only to send them back without any results. An entire nation is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership, especially by these so-called Revolutionary Guards.” Germany, he said, maintains its offer to send minesweepers in order to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but only after the fighting is over - AP

From Armenia’s border with Iran, I told CBS News what I saw firsthand: a tense frontier, one of Iran’s most accessible escape routes for asylum seekers, and the unmistakable shadow of Russia still present on the ground.

But the bigger story is Armenia’s fragility - a small state navigating the competing pressures of Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Georgia and Russia. In this neighbourhood, survival often depends on the decisions of others.

▶️ Watch the clip below.
World Briefing — connecting the dots, so that you don’t have to.

Armenia’s push to become a key transit hub linking Asia and Europe is being hampered by an awkward reality: its rail network remains controlled by Russian Railways, the Russian state company operating under a 30-year concession signed in 2008. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has openly complained that Russian control is costing Armenia strategic opportunities, arguing it discourages Turkey and Azerbaijan from using Armenian territory for future trade corridors, RFE/RL reported. He has floated the idea of transferring the concession to more neutral partners such as Kazakhstan, the United Arab Emirates or Qatar. The debate has gained urgency as new regional transport routes gather pace. Armenia has already agreed to a 43-kilometer route aimed at carrying Asian goods to Europe: TRIPP, or the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, designed to move Central Asian goods westward via Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nakhchivan and Turkey. But key rail links still need upgrading - and many of the most viable existing routes remain under Russian management. Analysts say freeing Armenia’s railway system from Moscow could boost commerce and create new economic interdependence with Azerbaijan, potentially lowering future conflict risks. Yet the Kremlin has shown little appetite to surrender control, even as Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus weakens under the strain of its war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Turkey and Azerbaijan are pressing ahead with their own $2.8 billion railway alternative, underlining the risk that Armenia could miss a historic transit opportunity while geopolitical wrangling continues. However, analysts told World Briefing during a recent visit to Yerevan that the TRIPP project is not viewed as a make-or-break opportunity for Armenia should it fail to proceed.

President Donald Trump lashed out at CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell in an interview Sunday for quoting from the manifesto of the suspected gunman who tried to storm the White House Correspondents Dinner less than 24 hours earlier. Trump had initially expressed a sense of camaraderie with members of the press corps who hosted him at their annual dinner and experienced the same initial panic when armed law enforcement agents stormed into the ballroom. But when O’Donnell, during an interview recorded at the White House on Sunday, quoted from the accused gunman Cole Allen’s apparent manifesto — “I am no longer willing to permit a pedophile, rapist, and traitor to coat my hands with his crimes,” she read — Trump, who’d been relatively subdued in his responses, flashed a familiar anger. “I was waiting for you to read that because I knew you would, because you’re horrible people. Horrible people,” Trump said. “Yeah, he did write that. I’m not a rapist. I didn’t rape anybody.” O’Donnell interjected, “Oh, do you think he was referring to you?” But the president blew past her question, declaring, “I’m not a pedophile.” Trump bristled at what he seemed to deem an insinuation about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein, who was not mentioned by name in the manifesto or by O’Donnell. “You read that crap from some sick person,” the president said. “I got associated with stuff that has nothing to do with me. I was totally exonerated.” O’Donnell had just asked Trump if he thought the experience at the dinner would change his experience with the press. He answered obliquely, asserting that the press corps was largely left-leaning and opposed to his policies on immigration and crime. But his scathing response to her moments later offered a much clearer answer. “You should be ashamed of yourself for reading that, because I’m not any of those things,” Trump said. “You shouldn’t be reading that on ‘60 Minutes.’ You’re a disgrace.” - Politico

Fans dreaming of watching the 2026 FIFA World Cup 2026 live may need far deeper pockets than expected, with new analysis suggesting supporters could spend tens of thousands of euros following their national teams through the tournament. According to research by LiveFootballTickets, average ticket prices for the final at MetLife Stadium have surged to nearly €29,800, while premium seats are listed as high as €109,800. By comparison, group-stage tickets are averaging between €1,500 and €2,400, highlighting the dramatic jump in prices as the tournament progresses. The report estimates that fans following a team all the way to the final could face average costs of between €49,000 and €60,500, depending on the nation. Those opting for premium seats at every match could pay as much as €186,000 overall. Among the most expensive teams to support are Mexico, United States and Brazil. Mexican supporters would pay an estimated €59,750 on average if El Tri reaches the final, with premium packages rising to almost €193,424. Mexico’s opening match in Mexico City is also among the priciest early fixtures, averaging €6,388 per ticket. The findings are likely to intensify debate over affordability and access, as football’s biggest tournament increasingly becomes a luxury experience for many ordinary supporters.

A woman was caught on camera blissfully snatching bottles of wine during the chaotic aftermath of the shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner. While throngs of reporters and other guests fled the Washington Hilton ballroom, an unknown blonde woman wearing posh black fur went straight for a table to stockpile booze. Because the shooting took place early on during the salad portion of the marquee dinner, there was an abundance of wine left abandoned at tables across the ballroom. The woman’s identity is not immediately clear, and it’s not apparent whether she was a journalist or some other guest. Footage of the wine grab quickly went viral. But netizens were torn whether snatching the wine was in poor taste given what could’ve been a tragic evening if the shooter wasn’t stopped, or a fiscally prudent move given the high price tag of the swanky dinner. “So, there you have press members STEALING wine bottles: this is who the press is! Repugnant!” one user wrote, showing a video of the wine-loving attendee. “How shameless, after the shooting incident, journalists are stealing liquor bottles in the same hall where President Donald Trump was also present,” a different user fumed. “Bro they paid $350+ a plate and the night got canceled early, free wine tax refund is fair game,” a user named Bullz wrote. Other attendees were similarly caught exiting the ballroom with bottles of wine after chaos engulfed the marquee DC dinner. CAA agent Michael Glantz also went viral for being seen on camera casually eating his salad while other attendees were hiding under the tables due to the shooting. Saturday night’s annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner was interrupted by a deranged gunman who attempted to rush past security and opened fire before being pinned down by security - New York Post

The journals….

Forty years ago today, at 1:23 a.m. on April 26, 1986, Reactor No. 4 at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant exploded during a failed safety test, sending radioactive fallout across Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and much of Europe.

The Soviet Union’s response was marked by secrecy and delay. Residents of nearby Pripyat were not immediately informed, and evacuation only began the following day. More than 100,000 people were eventually removed from the surrounding exclusion zone, much of which remains largely uninhabited.

The Kremlin’s official death toll of 31 has long been disputed. Many experts say the true human cost was far higher, with thousands exposed to dangerous radiation and increased rates of illnesses including thyroid cancer in the years that followed. Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev later said the catastrophe helped accelerate the collapse of the Soviet Union.

For Ukraine, Chornobyl is not only history - it is a present danger. During Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Russian troops occupied the site, reportedly disturbing contaminated soil, damaging facilities and digging trenches in the highly radioactive Red Forest. Then, in February 2025, a drone strike damaged the vast New Safe Confinement structure that covers the destroyed reactor.

As Ukrainians mark four decades since the world’s worst nuclear accident, the anniversary comes with an unsettling reminder: even now, Chornobyl is not fully in the past. And with the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — Europe’s largest nuclear power station — still under Russian control, Moscow’s carelessness and disdain for basic norms pose an even more real threat to humanity.

Forty years after the disaster at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, I reflect on covering it as a young reporter with the English-language The Ukrainian Weekly, when early evidence pointed to a death toll far beyond absurd Soviet claims. In this video, I also draw clear parallels between the Soviet cover-up of Chornobyl and China’s early handling of the COVID-19 crisis - themes I explored in my book Digital Pandemic: How Tech Went From Bad to Good. Today, with Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant - Europe’s largest nuclear station and among the Top Ten globally - under Russian control, the danger of secrecy, denial and authoritarian negligence remains very real. Watch the video above

US President Donald Trump was evacuated from the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday, after witnesses heard multiple loud bangs in the ballroom of the Hilton Hotel in Washington, DC. The US Secret Service said it was investigating a shooting incident and that one individual was in custody. “The president and first lady are safe along all protectees,” it said. Trump said he believed the shooter was a “lone wolf” and that he didn’t reach the ballroom doors because he was apprehended by law enforcement. Washington police said it believed the alleged shooter was a guest at the hotel. Officers tackled the man after he charged a checkpoint with a shotgun in his hand as he attempted to run into the ballroom, they said. Officials declined to release his name and said the shooter’s motivation and targets were unclear. There did not immediately appear to be any injuries. Videos of the event appeared to show attendees ducking under dining tables as law enforcement came on the main stage. White House Correspondents Association Chair Weijia Jiang originally said the group would resume the program, but later took the stage to explain that law enforcement has requested attendees leave the premises. The president “insists we reschedule the event in the next 30 days and that he wanted to do it tonight, to continue despite the news,” she said. “On a night we are thinking about the freedoms in the First Amendment, we must also think about how fragile they are.” This was the the first time Trump has attended the dinner since 2015. In a press briefing following the incident, Trump said the man was from California and had been captured. The The Associated Press later identified the alleged shooter as a 31-year-old man from Torrance, California. The defendant will be arraigned on Monday in federal district court, US Attorney Jeanine Pirro said. Trump said one officer responding to the attack was shot with a “very powerful gun” but was wearing a bullet-proof vest and “is doing great.” - Semafor

Trump on Saturday abruptly called off a planned trip by two senior negotiators to Islamabad, signaling that Washington and Tehran remain far apart on any deal to end the war, according to The New York Times. Trump said he pulled the team shortly before departure and told Iran it could negotiate instead by phone. The delegation had been due to include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Pakistani officials continue trying to mediate between the two sides. Core disputes remain unresolved, including Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, its nuclear program, and control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply normally passes. Trump said Iran had submitted an offer that was “much better” than an earlier proposal but still failed to meet U.S. demands. He also complained the Iranian officials expected at the talks were not senior enough. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran would not return to negotiations while the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. The developments underscore a widening contest of endurance: Washington appears to be betting that economic pressure will weaken Iran, while Tehran may be calculating that Trump is reluctant to reignite a costly war ahead of U.S. midterm elections. Despite heavy U.S. strikes, Iran’s leadership remains in power and continues to exert leverage over shipping through Hormuz, rattling energy markets and the wider global economy.

• Iran’s foreign minister departed Islamabad for Moscow on Sunday, his ministry said, ping-ponging from capital to capital as mediators hoped to keep peace talks between Tehran and the United States alive. Abbas Araghchi sandwiched a visit to Oman’s Muscat in between trips to the Pakistani capital, and was set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Monday, according to the Iranian ambassador, but there remained no indication that direct US-Iranian talks would resume. Pressure to end the war has intensified as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. But Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had no intention of lifting their blockade, which has roiled energy markets. “Controlling the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining the shadow of its deterrent effects over America and the White House’s supporters in the region is the definitive strategy of Islamic Iran,” the IRGC said on its official Telegram channel - Al Arabiya

Palestinians voted in local elections on Saturday in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and in Gaza. This marked the first vote of any kind held in the Gaza Strip in two decades since Hamas won in 2006. For years, elections to choose Palestinian representatives were repeatedly postponed, and no parliamentary elections have been held since 2006, when Hamas secured a surprise victory in Gaza over Fatah, the faction led by President Mahmoud Abbas. This time around, most electoral lists are aligned with Abbas’s secular-nationalist Fatah movement or consist of independents supported by smaller factions such as the Marxist‑Leninist Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. A number of Palestinian factions boycotted the electoral process in protest against the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) conditions for candidates to join, which were introduced as part of an electoral reform last year. Some aspiring candidates additionally complained they were prevented from participating. Nearly 1.5 million people are registered to vote in the West Bank, as well as 70,000 people in Deir al-Balah area, according to the Ramallah-based Central Elections Commission. Foreign diplomats were visiting polling stations to monitor the process. Voter turnout remained notably low, standing at 15% by late morning and later rising to 24.53% by 1 pm, the election commission said. News agency AFP reported that many stations across parts of the West Bank remained empty. Palestinians will vote to select representatives for municipal and village councils for a four-year term. Municipal councils handle everyday services, such as overseeing water supplies, sanitation and local infrastructure. Although they do not hold legislative power, local councils have become important in that they are one of the last remaining democratic mechanisms under the Palestinian Authority, which has been widely criticised over corruption, stagnation and declining legitimacy. These elections are therefore one of the few remaining political mechanisms that allow Palestinians a limited form of political participation - Euronews

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is stepping down after his party’s landslide election defeat earlier this month, said on Saturday that he is giving up his seat in Hungary’s parliament but intends to remain leader of the Fidesz party. In a video posted on Facebook, Orbán said the decision followed a Fidesz meeting during which party officials agreed to carry out a major restructuring of the party’s parliamentary grouping after the heavy election loss, which ended Orbán’s 16-year rule. Orbán said he would seek reelection as party leader in a vote scheduled for June - Euronews

The journals…..

From the Armenian border, a ground-level look at how Iran’s crisis is already rippling outward - fuel shortages, frozen alliances, and a small nation caught in a very dangerous neighborhood

Reporting from the Armenia-Iran border, the scene behind me looks deceptively calm. Mountains, guarded crossings, trucks inching through. But turn the camera around toward Armenia and a different reality emerges: fuel shortages, economic anxiety, and growing fears that a war many assumed was far away is edging ever closer.

That is the nature of modern conflict. It does not stay where it starts. It travels through borders, prices, jobs, supply chains - and nerves.

With U.S.-Iran negotiations abruptly collapsed, renewed strikes between Israel and Hezbollah, and the Strait of Hormuz still constrained, the world is edging back toward danger. Here in Armenia - a country carefully balancing ties with Iran, Russia, Azerbaijan, the U.S, and Europe while slowly warming to Turkey —- every tremor is felt.

This week I also take you inside an astonishing mega-project linking this border to Yerevan: roads, tunnels, bridges, and flyovers that could cut travel time by three hours. In geopolitics, infrastructure is strategy poured into concrete.

The most important front lines today are not always where missiles land. They are where ordinary people queue for fuel, where truckers wait at mountain crossings, and where small nations fear being forgotten while bigger powers bargain elsewhere.

World Briefing Plus subscribers power this kind of on-the-ground reporting - from the Strait of Hormuz to the Armenia-Iran frontier, and soon to Turkey and Moldova. If you value field reporting that connects the dots, consider upgrading - or gifting a subscription to someone who should be reading us.

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Three weeks ago, I was standing on the shores of the Strait of Hormuz in Oman, looking across one of the world’s most strategic waterways at Iran from the south. Today, I’m looking into the same country again - this time from its northern frontier here in Armenia. The Strait of Hormuz lies between Oman and Iran and remains one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

That journey tells its own story.

What began as a war with Iran is now raising much bigger questions: how much power the United States can sustain, how long allies remain aligned, and whether rivals like Russia and China see opportunity in the strain.

From the Gulf to the Caucasus, the message is clear: wars rarely stay where they start.

This is World Briefing — connecting the dots, so that you don’t have to.

▶️ Watch the video below.

Since the Iran war began in late February, the United States has burned through around 1,100 of its long-range stealth cruise missiles built for a war with China, close to the total number remaining in the U.S. stockpile. The military has fired off more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, roughly 10 times the number it currently buys each year. The Pentagon used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptor missiles in the war, at more than $4 million a pop, and more than 1,000 Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, leaving inventories worrisomely low, according to internal Defense Department estimates and congressional officials. The Iran war has significantly drained much of the U.S. military’s global supply of munitions, and forced the Pentagon to rush bombs, missiles and other hardware to the Middle East from commands in Asia and Europe. The drawdowns have left these regional commands less ready to confront potential adversaries like Russia and China, and it has forced the United States to find ways to scale up production to address the depletions, Trump administration and congressional officials say. The conflict has also underscored the Pentagon’s overreliance on excessively expensive missiles and munitions, especially air-defense interceptors, as well as concerns about whether the defense industry can develop cheaper arms, especially attack drones, far more quickly. The Defense Department has not disclosed how many munitions it used in 38 days of war before a cease-fire took effect two weeks ago. The Pentagon says it hit more than 13,000 targets, but officials say that figure masks the vast number of bombs and missiles it used because warplanes, attack planes and artillery typically strike large targets multiple times. White House officials have refused to estimatethe cost of the conflict so far, but two independent groups say the expense is staggering: between $28 billion and $35 billion, or just under $1 billion a day. In the first two days alone, defense officials have told lawmakers, the military used $5.6 billion of munitions. To restore the U.S. global stockpile to its previous size, the United States will have to make tough choices about where to maintain its military strength in the meantime. “At current production rates, reconstituting what we have expended could take years,” Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, said this week. All regional military commanders are feeling the strain of shrinking munitions stocks. In Europe, the war has led to depletions in weapons systems critical for defending the eastern flank of NATO from Russian aggression, according to Pentagon information reviewed by The New York Times - NYT

• The drawdowns have left the US underprepared for potential conflict with Russia or China. Replacing stockpiles of air-defense missiles - critical to supporting Taiwan should China invade - could take six years, The Wall Street Journal reported

Nato says there is no provision for member states to be suspended or expelled from the military alliance after a report said the US could seek to suspend Spain over its Iran war stance. Reuters quoted a US official who said an internal Pentagon email had suggested measures for the US to punish allies it believed had failed to support its campaign. The email also suggested reviewing the US position on the UK’s claim to the Falklands islands in the south Atlantic, which are also claimed by Argentina. A Nato official told the BBC that the organisation’s founding treaty “does not foresee any provision for suspension of Nato membership, or expulsion”. Spain’s leader has also dismissed the report. Donald Trump has repeatedly criticised Nato allies for their reluctance to play a greater role after the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February and Iran subsequently restricted shipping through the key Strait of Hormuz route. Spain has refused to allow the use of air bases on its territory for attacks on Iran. The US has two military bases in Spain, Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base - BBC

• One of the leaked Pentagon policy options included reviewing the U.S. position on Britain’s claim to the Falkland Islands, the BBC reported. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s spokesperson was asked about the report on Friday. “We could not be clearer about the UK’s position on the Falkland Islands. It is long standing, it is unchanged,” the spokesperson said. “Sovereignty rests with the UK and the islands’ right to self-determination is paramount,” he said.

Peace talks between Iran and the United States could resume soon in Pakistan where Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive on Friday night, three Pakistani sources said. Two ‌of the sources, from the Pakistani government, said a U.S. logistics and security team was already in place for potential talks. There was no immediate direct response from Washington or Tehran to the report. Iranian state media said Araqchi will begin a trip on Friday that includes visits to Islamabad, Muscat and Moscow. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a briefing that Iran had a chance to make a “good deal” with the United States. The last round of peace talks ⁠had been expected on Tuesday but never took place. Trump unilaterally extended a two-week ceasefire on Tuesday at the 11th hour to allow more time to reconvene the negotiators. On Thursday, Israel and Lebanon extended a separate ceasefire for three weeks at a meeting at the White House brokered by Trump - Reuters

France removed climate change from the agenda of this week’s G7 talks to prevent a rift with the United States, according to a French government official. Environment ministers from the G7 nations are meeting in Paris Thursday and Friday to discuss issues ranging from biodiversity to water resources. But the French hosts deliberately avoided putting global warming on the agenda to appease the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump, who has dismissed climate change as a “con job” and withdrawn his country from several international climate bodies. “We have chosen not to tackle the climate issue head-on,” an adviser to French Ecological Transition Minister Monique Barbut told reporters. “Why? Because the United States’ positions on this issue are well known, and we felt ... that tackling this issue head-on with the United States within the G7 framework would not send a message of unity…We chose to focus on less contentious issues,” said the adviser, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity. Despite those efforts, the U.S. chose not to send a high-level representative to Paris. Washington is represented instead by Usha-Maria Turner, an assistant administrator at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The other six countries sent their ministers. Climate campaigners, however, lambasted France’s stance, especially given Barbut’s complaints about the outcome of last year’s COP climate talks as not ambitious enough. “It’s a paradox to lament the outcome of the COP but when you’re in control of the agenda not use it to address the elephant in the room,” said Fanny Petitbon, France team lead of nonprofit 350.org. “For us, it’s a huge disappointment.” - Politico

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The United States will invite President Vladimir Putin to attend the G20 summit in Miami this December, a senior U.S. official confirmed Thursday, though President Donald Trump later said he doubts the Russian leader will accept the invitation. The United States is the 2026 host of the Group of 20, and Trump has promised a lavish summit of leaders on December 14-15 at his National Doral resort in Florida. “All G20 members will be invited to attend ministerial meetings and the leaders’ summit,” a senior Trump administration official said. Despite the confirmation, Trump himself appeared skeptical about the Putin invite during an exchange with reporters later in the day. “I don’t know that he’s coming. I doubt he’d come, to be honest with you,” Trump said before adding that he would welcome the visit. “If he came, it would probably be very helpful” - Moscow Times

Satellite imagery analysis has suggested that Azerbaijan destroyed the Holy Mother of God Cathedral, the main Armenian church in Stepanakert. The church was the largest among Armenian churches in Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenian investigative outlet Hetq was among the first to verify reports of the church’s demolition circulating online. Images taken by the European Sentinel-2 satellite as of 2 April showed ‘the white paving stones surrounding the Mother Cathedral, but not the church itself’. The church was still standing as of 3 March, Hetq said. Construction of the church began in 2006; it was consecrated in April 2019. Located in central Stepanakert, it served as the region’s primary church, and was also used as a shelter during the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 and during subsequent escalations with Azerbaijan, providing refuge from Azerbaijani air strikes. Earlier in April, it was reported that another church in Stepanakert, Surb Hakob, built in 2007, was also destroyed. RFE/RL has been unable to get any comment from Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry regarding the reported demolition. Instead Azerbaijani pro-government media outlet APA published a lengthy piece on Wednesday pointing at Armenia’s ‘responsibility for acts of vandalism against Azerbaijan’s religious monuments’ in Nagorno-Karabakh and beyond. APAhas further claimed that Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh appropriated religious sites in the region - OC Media

The scene in Tuapse, a resort town of about 60,000 people on Russia’s Black Sea coast, has turned apocalyptic in recent days after Ukrainian strikes on a local oil refinery sparked major fires and spilled oil into the surrounding environment. Located about 80 kilometers (50 miles) northwest of Sochi, Tuapse is home to a Rosneft-owned refinery that processes around 12 million metric tons of crude annually and serves as a key export route for naphtha, fuel oil and diesel. The refinery was last struck on Monday, setting off a major fire and spilling petroleum products into the Black Sea and the Tuapse River. Since then, residents say they have seen widespread “black rain,” smelled burning and observed mass bird deaths. Many say oily black droplets have appeared on their clothes and skin after spending time outdoors. On Thursday, three days after the fire began, officials urged people to keep their windows closed and limit time outside as polluted smoke continued to spread. Authorities later said the blaze had been contained though it was still burning. Environmentalist Yevgeny Vitishko, a member of an advisory council under the Krasnodar region governor, described the Tuapse incident as “the largest environmental catastrophe” in the region in recent years - Moscow Times

In three of the past four weeks, the CBS Evening News has fallen under 4 million viewers per night, with a low of just over 3.5 million in the week of March 23. ABC’s and NBC’s evening newscasts have also come in below their recent averages in that time, but the gap between second-place NBC and third-place CBS remains persistently large. Since Tony Dokoupil took over as anchor on Jan. 5 — as CBS News editor-in-chief Bari Weiss’ first high-profile change within the division — the CBS Evening News has averaged about 4.13 million total viewers and 521,000 in the core news demographic of adults 25-54, per Nielsen. The past four weeks have been rougher: Since March 23, the CBS Evening News has drawn just 3.78 million viewers and 479,000 adults 25-54, declining 11 percent in both measures from Dokoupil’s prior average. Those are somewhat steeper drops than for ABC’s World News Tonight (-3 percent in both viewers and 25-54) and the NBC Nightly News (-7 percent in viewers, -9 percent in 25-54) have in the past four weeks, compared to the January-March period - The Hollywood Reporter

The journals….

Israel’s killing of a prominent Lebanese journalist in a double-tap strike has been greeted with international outrage as Lebanon’s prime minister described the attack as a “war crime”. Amal Khalil, 43, who worked for al-Akhbar newspaper, was buried on Thursday. She was killed in what colleagues described as a sustained attack by Israeli forces, with rescuers attempting to dig her out of the rubble of a building also targeted and prevented from providing life-saving assistance. Her death prompted renewed accusations that Israel has a policy of targeting media workers, despite its repeated denials. Khalil had previously spoken of receiving a threat via an unidentified Israeli phone number that she would be killed if she did not leave southern Lebanon, where she had long been based. Khalil’s killing was condemned by senior figures from across Lebanese politics even as they prepared for fresh talks in Washington on Thursday aimed at extending a fraught ceasefire with Israel. Khalil was the ninth journalist killed in Lebanon this year. Last month three journalists were killed in a double-tap attack. As further details of the killing emerged on Thursday, it became clear that the group Khalil was with had come under sustained attack over several hours – and that Israeli forces had apparently been aware of their identities. Adding to the sense of horror was the fact that Khalil was trapped for hours in a house that had been bombed by Israeli forces. She died despite frantic efforts by her family, her editors and Aoun to organise a rescue. According to her employer and the Lebanese health ministry, Khalil was working near the village of al-Tiri when a vehicle she was driving behind was hit by an Israeli airstrike, killing two people and wounding her and her colleague Zeinab Faraj, a freelance photographer. Colleagues said Khalil and Faraj had been bearing protective equipment prominently marked with press signs and that Khalil had managed to call her office to say she was taking cover in a house and was under threat. The house in which they were sheltering was hit by a second Israeli airstrike. Rescue workers reached the scene and recovered Faraj but Israeli forces fired on those attempting to free Khalil. The Union of Journalists in Lebanon said that when medics attempted to rescue her, Israeli forces prevented access to the site and used stun grenades. Khalil’s body was eventually retrieved shortly before midnight, at least six hours after the strike - The Guardian

• “The repeated strikes on the same location, the targeting of an area where journalists were sheltering, and the obstruction of medical and humanitarian access constitute a grave breach of international humanitarian law,” said the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) Regional Director Sara Qudah. “CPJ holds Israeli forces responsible for the endangerment of Amal Khalil’s life and the injuries Zeinab Faraj sustained after the targeted strike on their location.”

Amal Khalil’s newspaper, Al Akbar, has put out a video tribute. Lebanon’s Minister of Information condemned the incident describing the targeting of journalists as a blatant violation of international humanitarian law and calling for international action.

An oil market data analysis firm reported on April 23 that “more than 10 million barrels of Iranian crude left the Persian Gulf” since the US military began its naval blockade of Iranian ports. Citing an assessment by Vortexa, Reuters wrote that from April 13 to 21, approximately 10.7 million barrels of Iranian crude oil were shipped and exited the Strait of Hormuz. According to this report, this amount of crude oil was transported by six tankers. The US government announced that it would blockade Iranian ports and prevent the passage of ships to Iran in response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. However, Vortexa wrote that the US blockade “is not necessarily implemented close to Iranian ports…but flexibly around an area about 300 miles to the west between the Pakistan/Iran border and the westernmost corner of Oman.” Since the blockade began, Iran-related traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, reaching “one to two tankers per day,” down from “around two to three per day” in the month before that period, according to Vortexa - RFE/RL

• The U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is influencing Washington’s relations with Beijing. The waterway is of vital importance to China’s oil-hungry economy as about 40% of the crude that the country consumes comes from the Middle East. Despite the Iranian blockade of the strait, some China-bound tankers could pass through it under a backroom deal. But such an arrangement is not possible with the U.S. military. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has begun to implicitly criticize the U.S. for the blockade, while U.S. President Donald Trump says he has asked Xi not to provide arms to Iran. This diplomatic maneuvering is happening ahead of Trump’s much-publicized planned visit to Beijing in mid-May. The Hormuz issue may be high on the agenda when the sides assemble to arrange the Trump-Xi summit, although the meeting could be rescheduled at any time, depending on the situation in the Middle East - Nikkei Asia

The European Union has given final approval to the €90 billion loan for Ukraine after Hungary lifted its veto, ending an explosive saga that saw Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in his last months in office, push the bloc’s internal norms to the breaking point. The internal procedure was launched by ambassadors on Wednesday and finalised on Thursday. No objections were raised, and the last pending regulation, which needs unanimity to amend the EU budget, was approved. The sought-after breakthrough came two days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the Druzhba pipeline which carries cheap Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, had been repaired and could resume operations. The interruption of oil flows through Druzhba was at the core of Orbán’s decision to veto the €90 billion loan in February. The last-minute blockage outraged other EU leaders who furiously condemned it. The European Commission, which will manage the financial scheme, says the first disbursement to Kyiv will be made as soon as possible - Euronews

• As China deepens support for Russia through dual-use technology and political cover during the war, Ukraine appears to be making a subtle but notable shift in its long-standing One China posture. In Lviv, Ukrainian authorities accepted one of the largest emergency aid transfers yet from Taiwan - 68 vehicles including fire, medical and specialized transport for frontline and rescue services.

  The symbolism runs deeper given recent history. In 2021, Kyiv withdrew its support for a U.N. statement criticizing Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs after reports that China threatened to withhold around 500,000 COVID-19 vaccine doses. What was once vaccine coercion is now being met by wartime pragmatism: if Beijing backs Moscow, Kyiv may increasingly look to Taipei.

• The US military has reportedly started using Ukrainian anti-drone technology to protect an air base in Saudi Arabia, highlighting a broader shift in defense away from expensive solutions to low-cost threats. The “Sky Map” system detects incoming attacks, often cheap Iranian Shahed drones, and responds with its own interceptors according to Reuters. Ukraine has become a leader in anti-drone countermeasures after four years of facing mass-produced Russian ordnance. The US move follows President Donald Trump last month saying “we don’t need their help in drone defense.” Existing US anti-air systems, though capable, are expensive: A $5 million Patriot missile destroying a $50,000 Shahed is not cost-effective. “We cannot keep throwing Ferraris at frisbees,” a U.S. lawmaker told Congress - Semafor

Armenia heads to the polls in early June - and what once looked like an easy path to re-election for incumbent Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is beginning to look far less certain.

After nearly a decade in power, frustration is growing among voters who believe he has conceded too much to Azerbaijan, Turkey and even the United States in pursuit of a peace many here fear may prove anything but peaceful.

If he falls, it would echo a wider regional trend: long-entrenched leaders discovering that patience, pride and promises eventually run out.

My curtain-raiser from Yerevan on one of the most consequential elections in the Caucasus this year.

Potentially millions of Americans suddenly have a much easier path to Canadian citizenship, prompting a rush of people to explore their ancestry and file paperwork seeking dual citizenship. Since s new law took effect Dec. 15, immigration lawyers in the United States and Canada say they have been overwhelmed by clients seeking help submitting proof of citizenship applications. Driven by politics, family heritage, job opportunities and other factors, thousands of Americans are exploring whether the easier process makes now the right time to gain dual citizenship. Nicholas Berning, an immigration attorney at Boundary Bay Law in Bellingham, Washington, said his practice is “pretty much flooded with this.” And immigration attorney Amandeep Hayer said his Vancouver, British Columbia, area practice went from about 200 citizenship cases a year to more than 20 consults per day.

The journals….

For weeks now, we’ve spent time and effort tracking one central question: how the Middle East war is reshaping lives, economies, and power far beyond the battlefield itself. Right down to the front seats of Uber and Bolt drivers.

We’ve followed the shockwaves from the Philippines to Thailand, from Oman to Türkiye, from Ukraine - and now to Armenia, sitting right on Iran’s doorstep.

We’ve looked at what it means for the big players and the little guys alike: airlines rerouting fleets, oil producers cashing in, drivers paying more at the pump, remote workers searching for safer hubs, and ordinary families wondering what comes next.

Because war today does not stay where it starts. It travels through fuel prices, flight paths, jobs, markets, migration, and fear.

And here in Yerevan, a surprising new story may be emerging: as uncertainty grows elsewhere, Armenia’s capital could edge past Dubai on global rankings for remote working destinations - thanks to safety, affordability, connectivity, and freedom to create.

⬇️ Watch the video below on why Yerevan may be one of the unexpected winners of this war.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) says it has seized “two offending vessels” during an alleged “secret attempt to leave” the Strait of Hormuz. The naval arm of the IRGC said on April 22 that it had detained “two violating ships” that it claimed were attempting a “secret departure” from the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IRGC statement, the vessels were the MSC Francesca, which it described as belonging to Israel, and the Epaminodes. The IRGC said they were stopped on accusations that they intended to leave “without permission,” while committing “repeated violations,” tampering with navigational assistance systems, and endangering maritime security in an attempt to exit the strait “secretly.” The IRGC navy said the vessels had been transferred to Iran’s territorial waters for inspection of their cargo and documentation. The announcement came on a day when Iran’s armed forces said they had attacked and disabled three cargo ships off the country’s coast, according to state media. The IRGC, which has closed the strait to ships and oil tankers since February 28, briefly reopened the waterway for one day after a cease-fire in the war with the United States and Israel started on April 8, but shut it again after negotiations between the sides collapsed and a naval blockade of Iranian ports began - RFE/RL

• Iran’s chief negotiator in talks with the US, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has just said it is “not possible to reopen the Strait of Hormuz considering all the blatant violations of the ceasefire”. Those “violations” include the US naval blockade of Iranian ports - which he says amounts to taking the global economy “hostage” - and “warmongering” by Israel “on all fronts”. Seemingly referring to the US and Israel, Ghalibaf posts on X that “they did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying. The only way forward is to recognise the rights of the Iranian people.” - BBC

• US Treasury ⁠Secretary Scott ⁠Bessent has extended sanctions relief ⁠on Iranian and Russian seaborne oil for ⁠30 days because of requests from countries that are the most vulnerable to oil shortages ‌from the closed Strait of Hormuz. Bessent told a US Senate Appropriations subcommittee budget hearing the requests came from finance ⁠leaders of about 10 ⁠countries during last week’s International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings. ⁠ The action reversed his comments ⁠last week that ⁠he would not renew expiring sanctions waivers - Al Jazeera

The EU will unlock its €90 billion loan to Ukraine on Thursday if, as officials now expect, oil flows restart via the Druzhba pipeline by then, according to five EU diplomats. The breakthrough hinges on the restoration of crude shipments through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline linking Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia — a condition that outgoing Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s government used to block the loan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Tuesday that the line has been repaired. European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the latest developments had cleared the path for the money to be set free. “The oil is flowing in the Druzhba pipeline — this means that … we will be able to release the €90 billion loan,” she said Wednesday at the EU-Ukraine Business Forum. After initially agreeing to the loan in December, Budapest blocked it in February as a dispute flared over the pipeline. Orbán accused Zelenskyy of slow-walking repairs to the infrastructure in retaliation for Hungary’s friendly relations with Russia. Zelenskyy sounded optimistic the cash would finally reach Ukraine. “The unblocking is the right signal under the current circumstances,” he wrote on X on Wednesday. EU ambassadors gave preliminary backing to the package, according to Cyprus, which holds the presidency of the Council of the EU, after Ukraine’s repairs and the westward flows resumed. POLITICO spoke to five EU diplomats and officials, present in a meeting of ambassadors on Wednesday or briefed by those who were, and who were granted anonymity to speak freely about the deal. In the meeting, Hungary and Slovakia made clear their support depends on oil physically reaching their territory, according to three of the diplomats. “Some caution is needed as there might still be technical issues,” one diplomat said. “It should be fine,” another added, noting the EU pushed the deadline to Thursday afternoon based on “very scientific calculations” of when the oil is expected to arrive - Politico

Italy summoned Russia’s ambassador to Rome on Tuesday to protest a Kremlin-aligned pundit’s profanity-laced tirade against Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. In a post on X, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said he had called Russian envoy Aleksey Paramonov to formally denounce the “extremely serious and offensive statements” recently made by presenter Vladimir Solovyov on Russian state television. During the one-minute segment that aired on April 16 this month, Solovyov tore into Meloni, calling her a “certified idiot” and “fascist scum.” After accusing her of betraying both her voters and U.S. President Donald Trump — who last week turned on Meloni after she criticized his attack on Pope Leo XIV — the presenter additionally referred to her as “PuttaMeloni,” or “Meloni the whore.” Russian Ambassador Paramonov dismissed Tajani’s protests in a post on Facebook, saying Rome had “missed the mark” by summoning him over comments made by a television host and insisting the remarks did not reflect the position of the Russian government. “No reasonable person would treat purely personal remarks as an official statement,” he added. Rome has firmly backed Ukraine efforts to end the Russian full-scale invasion of its territory, with Meloni standing out as one of Kyiv’s most reliable European allies. The prime minister has ramped up military cooperation and recently hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for talks on expanding defense support, including drone production. That stance has exacerbated internal tensions in Italy, where far-right coalition partner the League, energy giant ENI and the opposition 5Star Movement have floated resuming Russian gas purchases amid mounting energy pressures - Politico

A court in Moldova sentenced oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc to 19 years in prison on Wednesday in a case linked to the disappearance of $1 billion (€850 million) from the country’s banking system. The former businessman and lawmaker controlled Moldova as a “captured state” from 2013 to 2019, wielding de facto control over the legislative, executive, law enforcement and judicial authorities despite never holding top government positions. Plahotniuc, kingpin of the Democratic Party of Moldova, fled the country in June 2019 after his government collapsed and he faced a series of corruption charges. That included complicity in the scheme that led to money disappearing from Moldovan banks in 2014, which at the time was equivalent to around one-eighth of the country’s GDP, in a scandal that became known as “theft of the century”. He was extradited from Greece last year, after being arrested at Athens airport under an Interpol international alert. A Chișinău judge announced the ruling on Wednesday. The court also ordered the seizure of some $60 million (€51 million) from Plahotniuc’s accounts, said prosecutor Alexandru Cernei after the sentencing. Plahotniuc, 60, was not present in court on Wednesday. He had previously dismissed the charges, calling his trial “political” and “flawed from the outset.” - Euronews

Finnish air force cadet pilots have landed themselves in trouble after a routine turning drill turned into an exercise in sky-scrawled smut. Graphic loops in the shape of large penises were spotted on Flightradar after two Grob G 115 propeller planes took off from the Finnish city of Jyväskylä on April 13 and made a series of unusual maneuvers, The Telegraph reported. The students behind the stunt are trainees on Finland’s pilot reserve officer course, based at the Tikkakoski academy. A Finnish air force spokesman said the cadets will face “disciplinary” measures, adding: “The air force requires soldiers to follow good manners and rules of conduct, and if these are deviated from, it will be responded to in an appropriate manner.” Officials stressed that no one was endangered and that the aircraft stayed on its assigned route throughout. It’s far from the first sexual airborne doodling scandal. RAF pilots carved a 40-mile phallus across the skies of Lincolnshire and north Wales in October 2021, while Russian carrier Pobeda managed a similar feat in November 2020—apparently in a tribute to footballer Artem Dzyuba - The Daily Beast

The journals….

• The US Department of Defense announced that its military forces had boarded a sanctioned ship called the M/T Tifani without incident in South Asian waters on the night of April 20. “We will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran -- anywhere they operate,” the Pentagon statement said. “International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels,” it added, saying the defense department “will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.” Along with this statement, the US Department of Defense released images of military helicopters flying over an oil tanker and military helicopters landing onboard. This is the second ship the United States has seized and taken control of since imposing a naval blockade on Iran on April 19. The Islamic republic has called the naval blockade and ship seizure a “violation of the cease-fire.” - RFE/RL

Representatives of U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” have held talks with ​state-owned Dubai multinational DP World about managing ‌supply chains and infrastructure projects in Gaza, the Financial Times said on Tuesday. Rehabilitation of Gaza, where two years of Israeli ​bombardment have destroyed four-fifths of buildings, has ​been projected by global institutions to cost around $70 ⁠billion. Citing three people familiar with the matter, the ​paper said the talks centred on prospects for a partnership ​between DP World and the Board of Peace to run logistics. These efforts would cover humanitarian aid and other goods entering ​Gaza, including warehousing, tracking systems and security, it ​added. Other ideas floated during the talks included a new port in ‌either ⁠Gaza or on the nearby Egyptian coast built by the company based in the United Arab Emirates, which could also develop a free-trade zone in the ​war-shattered strip, ​the paper ⁠said. DP World and the White House did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests ​for comment.
** DP World is primarily owned by the Government of Dubai through its holding company, Dubai World. As of 2020, it is a privately held entity and a subsidiary of the Ports, Customs & Free Zone Corporation (PCFC), which is controlled by the ruling royal family of Dubai.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has ordered an investigation into the role played by two US officials who reportedly worked for the CIA in a counter-narcotics operation in the northern state of Chihuahua. The two died alongside two Mexican officials when their car crashed on their way back from an operation to destroy illegal drug labs, Chihuahua officials said. Sheinbaum said that neither she nor senior members of the federal security team had been informed about any joint US-Mexican operations. The Mexican leader has been adamant that foreign officials can only operate on Mexican soil if given prior clearance at the federal level. Sheinbaum has come under pressure from her US counterpart, President Donald Trump, to do more to stem the flow of drugs from Mexico to the United States but she has insisted that Mexico’s “sovereignty” cannot be breached. On Monday, Sheinbaum said “we did not have knowledge of any direct work between Chihuahua state and personnel from the US embassy”. She also said the government needed “to understand the circumstances under which this was taking place, and then assess the legal implications”. According to a Chihuahua state official, the two US nationals and two members of the Chihuahua State Investigation Agency (AEI) died on Sunday morning when the car they were travelling in skidded off the road and fell into a ravine, where it exploded. On Tuesday, The Washington Post reported that the two US officials who died worked for the CIA as part of a significantly expanded role in battling narcotics trafficking in the Western Hemisphere. Their employment was later confirmed by other US media outlets, including CBS - BBC

Major Russian companies have been conscripted into a “witch-hunt” against users trying to circumvent online controls, researchers have said, as the Kremlin continues trying to cut its citizens off from the global internet. Banks and web platforms are collecting data on users of virtual private networks (VPN) tools, which obscure an individual’s real location and allow them to access sites blocked in Russia, according to an investigation by RKS global, an advocacy group for internet freedoms. Tens of millions of Russians use VPNs to access the global internet. This number grew dramatically at the outset of their country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, after the Kremlin introduced sweeping bans of platforms like Facebook and Instagram. Authorities are now taking far greater measures to track these users, who may be at risk of criminal penalties, the researchers said. The investigation analysed 30 popular Russian apps, including those run by T-Bank, Sberbank, the search engine site Yandex and the social media platform VKontakte. It found that 22 of these apps actively detected whether a user was on a VPN – or had one installed on their phone – and most of them retained that data in their servers, where it could be accessed by security services. “The level of intrusion into the device can be very high,” said RKS global. “Any Android app released by Russian companies for the Russian market may now be spying.” Mazay Banzaev, founder of Amnezia, an open-source VPN company, said: “It’s one thing if Russian IT companies were to ‘catch’ users the moment they visit a site with a VPN enabled. It is quite another when even a closed application continues scanning the phone for VPN usage.” For millions of Russians, this means that their options to interact with the rest of the world are narrowing – and growing increasingly fraught with risk. It is not formally illegal in Russia to use a VPN, and businesses and state agencies still rely on them. But activities around VPN use are increasingly criminalised. This year, Russian courts have begun to treat VPN use as an aggravating circumstance in prosecutions. Over the past year, the authorities have embarked on a gradual effort to throttle the global internet. This began with blackouts of mobile networks across large swathes of the country last year. These spread to Moscow and St Petersburg and Russians started to buy paper maps and pagers to get around and communicate - The Guardian

United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer has admitted he was wrong to appoint Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, but rejected mounting calls to resign. Starmer told the UK Parliament on Monday that, while the appointment was a mistake, he would have withdrawn the decision had he known the Foreign Office had overruled security officials’ recommendations not to give the job to Mandelson, whose friendship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein was long known. The British leader again rejected calls for his resignation over the botched vetting process. Those calls have mounted as the issue has developed into a major scandal. The premier denied misleading parliament and placed the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Foreign Office, saying that it beggared belief that officials “saw fit to withhold this information from the most senior ministers in our system”. “That is not how the vast majority of people in this country expect politics, government or accountability to work,” Starmer said, adding that it was “frankly staggering” he had not been told about Mandelson’s failure to gain security clearance, to the sound of jeers from opposition lawmakers. “It doesn’t appear that he asked any questions at all. Why? Because he didn’t want to know,” Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch said. The fiasco has raised doubts about Starmer’s judgement, with the beleaguered prime minister claiming he only found out about the overruling of the vetting decision last week - Al Jazeera

Explainer
The “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), a 21st century version of a Panama-style “canal zone,” is a narrow strip of land that decides who moves energy, freight, and data between continents, and who gets paid for the privilege. And, vitally, a U.S.-backed counter to infrastructure being built by China. TRIPP is more than a photo-op or a vanity project. The South Caucasus, particularly since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has become an area of critical strategic value as a corridor between East and West and a new arena of superpower competition. Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought two wars over disputed Nagorno-Karabakh since the late-1980s, as the Soviet Union collapsed. It has been a brutal, society-shaping conflict, followed in 2023 by Azerbaijan’s rapid takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh and the flight of nearly the entire ethnic Armenian population. Russia, though formally cast as a mediator, spent years manipulating the conflict: arming both sides, managing ceasefires and preventing resolution in a familiar imperial tactic later perfected in Ukraine: manufacturing and freezing instability until it could be turned into full-scale war on Moscow’s terms. But Trump changed the narrative by brokering a peace that has continued to hold. In December, officials from both countries discussed “lasting peace” and a “joint future” at a summit in the Qatari capital Doha. Armenia and Azerbaijan are also deep in discussion about integrating their energy systems. And Washington is now trying to lock that peace into concrete: rails, roads, and fiber that physically re-route the region away from Russian and Iranian gatekeeping. The South Caucasus is to Russia what the Caribbean Basin and the Panama “backyard” once was to the United States: a strategic near-abroad where outside powers aren’t supposed to build permanent leverage. TRIPP, even if it exists just on paper for now, indirectly challenges the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, a network of railways, ports, pipelines, and trade corridors aimed at boosting international trade under Beijing’s leadership. It enables the moving of goods while bypassing Russia and, where possible, Iran — an approach that became more urgent after 2022. And it undermines China, which has been busy paving routes to Iran. Both countries have been in intense contact with Central Asian countries and last summer inaugurated a railway route that connects China and Iran through Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The simplest way to read TRIPP is as a 27-mile project with an outsized consequence: it reorders who controls the “land bridge” between Europe and Central Asia and it tells every capital nearby who Washington thinks matters. And China will have to prepare for an economic standoff in terrain it once assumed was ripe for Chinese dominance. Russia, meanwhile, finds itself on slippery ground, no longer the indispensable broker it once was in its immediate neighborhood. TRIPP also adds an unexpected edge to the Ukraine-shaped narrative of a Trump administration willing to accommodate Moscow at every turn, suggesting instead a relationship that is less uniform and more selectively disruptive than it first appears - Adapted from a story by Coda Media

• The implementation of the TRIPP project will establish rail service between Iran and Armenia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced at a press briefing recently. Responding to journalists’ questions regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, he expressed confidence in a speedy resolution and, in this context, did not rule out accelerating the implementation of the TRIPP project. According to him, the TRIPP route envisages the creation of a Persian Gulf-Black Sea railway corridor, which is expected to benefit Iran, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and the United States. The Prime Minister emphasized that Armenia views cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran as a strategic direction, and the Armenian side intends to expand logistics chains and capabilities through Iranian territory. “The implementation of the TRIPP project is of great importance, as we will gain a railway connection with Iran, which will significantly simplify the import of goods into Armenia and export from the country,” Pashinyan said - Arka News Agency

The son of right-wing pundit Tucker Carlson has left Vice President JD Vance’s press team to set up his own political consulting firm amid escalating tensions between his father and President Trump. Buckley Carlson, a 20-something who had served as Vance’s deputy press secretary since the start of the second Trump administration, is joining a group of several White House alumni departing for the private sector. While such moves can be typical in presidential administrations, Buckley’s departure comes against the backdrop of a growing rift between Trump, 79, and Tucker, 56, once an avid backer. Trump wrote in a screed against Tucker earlier this month, “Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist!” Trump jabbed at Tucker again on Truth Social on Friday, linking to a story about CNN data guru Harry Enten suggesting the president was winning the feud in the public eye and writing, “Tucker is a Low IQ person – Always easy to beat, and highly overrated.” - NY Post

The journals….

First full working day in Yerevan - and already one thing is clear: Armenia may be one of the most underreported countries in the world, despite sitting at the crossroads of some of today’s biggest geopolitical fault lines.

Bordered by Georgia, Iran, Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia is trying to strengthen democracy, modern governance and creativity while navigating a very rough neighbourhood. That means managing the fallout from the Iran war, Russia’s lingering grip on key parts of the economy, and fragile ties with regional rivals.

Over the coming days, I’ll be reporting from the ground to help connect the dots between the turbulence shaping this region - and the quiet but important story unfolding here.

World Briefing from Yerevan. Stay tuned.

Iran says it has yet to decide whether to attend a new round of peace negotiations with the United States, as Washington’s delegation prepared to depart for Pakistan on Monday. The uncertainty over the talks on ending the war that engulfed the region and rattled global markets came as US President Donald Trump suggested he could resume attacks should the current temporary ceasefire – now in its final days – lapse. Since initial talks in Islamabad ended without a deal earlier this month, both sides have accused the other of breaching the truce. “We have no plans for the next round of negotiation, and no decision has been made in this regard,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Monday. “The US is carrying out behaviors that do not in any way indicate seriousness in pursuing a diplomatic process,” he added, calling an ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports and its recent seizure of a ship “clear violations of the ceasefire.” Trump has similarly accused Tehran of violating the truce by harassing vessels in the crucial Strait of Hormuz trade route, which Iran has all but shut. The US delegation was due to head to Pakistan “soon,” a source familiar with the plan told AFP on Monday, with Trump telling PBS News that Iran was “supposed to be there. We agreed to be there.” He said that if the ceasefire ended without a peace deal “then lots of bombs start going off,” separately telling Bloomberg News it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce. Based on its start time, the truce theoretically expires overnight Tuesday, Tehran time, though in his comments to Bloomberg, Trump said the end was a day later, on Wednesday evening Washington time. Oil prices jumped sharply on Monday over fears hostilities could resume in the weeks-long war, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again following a brief reopening over the weekend. In spite of the uncertainty surrounding the talks in Pakistan, security has been visibly stepped up in the capital Islamabad. A White House official said Vice President JD Vance would lead the delegation, joined by Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iran’s ISNA news agency cited a spokesperson for Iran’s central command center as warning that the military “will soon respond and retaliate against this armed piracy,” while Tasnim news agency reported that Tehran had sent drones in the direction of US military ships. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that any vessel attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without permission “will be targeted.” - Al Arabiya

• The two-week truce, which went into effect April 8, is being tested in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for oil and gas that Tehran has sought to control, prompting the United States to blockade Iranian ports. A U.S. Navy destroyer fired on an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday after it defied that blockade, Mr. Trump said, and ultimately U.S. forces seized it. Iran’s armed forces called it “piracy,” warning that they would soon retaliate, according to Tasnim, a semiofficial Iranian news agency - NYT

A BBC examination of financial market data has uncovered a striking pattern: millions of dollars in trades were placed shortly before some of Donald Trump’s most market-moving announcements during his second term in office. The broadcaster matched unusual spikes in trading activity to major statements later released through social media posts or media interviews, in some cases just minutes before they became public. While some analysts say the activity bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, others argue certain traders may simply have grown skilled at anticipating the interventions of a president whose words can send markets swinging.

There has been no reconstruction in Gaza since a fragile Trump administration-backed ceasefire went into effect in October, and human development across Gaza has been set back by a staggering 77 years According to a report issued by the United Nations and the European Union, the coastal strip needs $71.4-billion for reconstruction over the next decade. “The impact on the lives of Gazans is just as devastating: more than 60 per cent of the population having lost their homes and 1.9 million people displaced, often multiple times. Women, children, persons with disabilities, and those with pre-existing vulnerabilities bear the greatest burden,” the report said

Washington and its allies began major live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, with Japan joining as a full participant for the first time. The US and the Philippines have held joint drills since 2001; other allies, including Australia, France, and New Zealand, have since joined, and this year’s “largest ever” exercise signals a response to growing Chinese assertiveness in the region. Japan in particular is rearming, despite its explicitly pacifist constitution: Tokyo plans to increase defense of nearby sea lanes, and has signed a $14 billion contract to build destroyers for Australia as part of deepening defense ties. Germany has similarly begun a pivot to military manufacturing, hoping to stem a longstanding industrial decline - Semafor

EU ambassadors are poised to approve a €90 billion loan to Ukraine on Wednesday — if Russian oil transit to Hungary resumes in time. In a sign of optimism they can get the deal over the line, the Cypriot presidency of the Council of the EU put the Ukraine loan on the agenda of a meeting of the EU’s 27 ambassadors on Wednesday. If oil flows resume before then, Hungary is expected to drop its opposition and the loan will be approved, four EU diplomats, who were granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks, told POLITICO. Hungary’s outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said on Sunday that he will drop his veto of the loan as soon as oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline — which was damaged in a Russian strike in January — is restored. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced last week that the pipeline would be operational by the end of the month, but diplomats said there’s a strong chance flows could resume before Wednesday’s meeting. If the loan is approved this week, Kyiv would be set to receive the money in May, offering relief to Ukraine’s war-battered economy as it continues to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion, now in its fifth year. Once Hungary lifts its veto the European Commission would be able to disburse the funds after completing technical checks expected to take a few weeks - Politico

Russian consumers are increasingly switching to cheaper food products as real incomes come under pressure and households look to cut costs, a senior executive at the country’s largest food retailer said. Yekaterina Lobacheva, president of X5 Group, which operates the Perekrestok, Pyaterochka and Chizhik chains, said the company had observed a sharp rise in demand for low-cost items and store-brand products. The trend underscores a cooling in consumer demand in Russia’s slowing economy, where high interest rates and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on household spending, even as officials say price growth is easing. “We recently noticed that cookie consumption has risen — almost two and a half times,” Lobacheva told the RBC news website in an interview. “It’s something sweet, a small indulgence, but cheaper than chocolate and other confectionery.” Sales of X5’s own-brand products, which are typically priced below those of third-party manufacturers, have also increased notably, she said. Another sign of tightening household budgets is rapid growth in discount retail formats that are traditionally aimed at lower-income shoppers. Lobacheva said X5’s hard-discount chain Chizhik is expected to overtake Pyaterochka in revenue for the first time this year. Household purchasing power is being squeezed by a combination of demographic decline, high interest rates set by the Central Bank and a prolonged effort to curb inflation, Lobacheva said - Moscow Times

Madonna‘s hung up ... because her clothes have allegedly disappeared after her surprise Coachella appearance this weekend. In an Instagram story posted Monday, Madonna said she was “flying high” after performing a new song from her upcoming album “Confessions II” in a “full circle moment” ... but the mysteriously missing costumes put a damper on the weekend. Sources familiar with the situation tell TMZ ... the iconic artist has filed a police report over the missing garments. The singer wrote ... “These aren’t just clothes, they are part of my history.” She penned a plea to her 20 million followers, adding ... “I’m hoping and praying that some kind soul, will find these items and reach out to my team” -- and provided an email address. The Material Girl is offering a reward for the safe return of her garments - TMZ

The journals….

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick slammed Canada as trade negotiators prepare to review the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement this year. Asked at Semafor World Economy in Washington, DC, about Canada’s former trade chief suggesting time is on Canada’s side in the talks, Lutnick responded: “That is like the worst strategy I’ve ever heard. They suck. They — look, we are a $30 trillion economy, right?” Canadian Prime Minister Mark “Carney has a problem with us; he gets on a plane and he goes to China,” Lutnick continued. “Does he think China’s… going to buy his stuff? China is an entirely export-driven economy. So what did he do? He came back and said, ‘Oh, we’ll take their electric cars.’ I mean, is this nuts?” A Commerce Department spokesperson said in a statement to Semafor that Lutnick was “misquoted” when he made the “suck” comment, adding: “Secretary Lutnick, describing our unfair trade imbalance with Canada, explained how Canada sucks off of our $30T economy.” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said recently he plans to reveal the US’ position on the USMCA on June 1, one month before officials must agree to extend the landmark trade deal. Nearly 40 senators from both parties urged Greer this week to “fully enforce the existing terms” to ensure “the joint review process reinforces, rather than undermines, the stability and opportunity that USMCA delivers to America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities.” As of now, President Donald Trump thinks USMCA is “a bad deal,” Lutnick said. “It needs to be reconsidered and reimagined correctly.” - Semafor

• Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada’s ties to the U.S. have become “weaknesses” that must be corrected, as workers in Canada’s auto, steel and lumber industries remain under threat due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “The U.S. has fundamentally changed its approach to trade, raising its tariffs to levels last seen during the Great Depression,” Carney said in a video posted to YouTube on Sunday morning. “Many of our former strengths, based on our close ties to America, have become weaknesses — weaknesses that we must correct.” “Security can’t be achieved by ignoring the obvious or downplaying the very real threats that we Canadians face,” Carney said. “I will never sugarcoat our challenges. Instead, I’ll talk to you directly and regularly about the plan.” The video comes after U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick took a swipe at Canada’s trade strategy. As part of the agreement, the Canadian government will allow 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into its market at a tariff rate of 6.1 per cent — down from 100 per cent. In exchange, China agreed to lower tariffs on Canadian canola to 15 per cent and remove levies on Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crab and peas until at least the end of 2026. - CBC News

War abroad and pain at the pump are triggering fresh nerves inside the Republican Party, as strategists in key battleground states warn their United States Senate majority may be more vulnerable than once assumed. What had looked like a favorable midterm map is now clouded by the Iran conflict, rising costs and stronger-than-expected Democratic challengers. Politico reported that Democrats still face steep odds to flip the chamber, needing to defend all current seats while winning four Republican-held ones. But GOP operatives told POLITICO that prolonged conflict and economic anxiety are reshaping the race. “Momentum has shifted to Democrats,” said Michigan-based GOP strategist Jason Roe. “Republicans have the best candidates that they’ve had in a long time but are facing serious headwinds,” said New Hampshire strategist Mike Dennehy. A Georgia Republican operative added: “I wouldn’t say I feel warm and fuzzy about things right now.” Another warned a prolonged war is “the exact opposite of what Senate Republicans need right now.” Particular concern is centered on battlegrounds including North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia, where Democrats have recruited heavyweight candidates such as Roy Cooper and Sherrod Brown, while Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff remains well-funded. Republicans are increasingly focused on flipping Michigan as insurance. Many Republicans still believe lower fuel prices and a summer end to fighting could stabilize the picture. “If combat operations are over in the summer, there’s plenty of time for the dislocation of gasoline prices... I think that will return to normal,” said a Georgia-based GOP operative. But for now, concern is growing that foreign conflict and domestic frustration could put the Senate back in play.

• President Donald Trump is starting to feel the pressure of the midterms creeping up on him—and it’s spiraling him into a rage, according to his longtime biographer. Author Michael Wolff said the president’s aides have been encouraging him to course-correct ahead of the crucial November polls and get back to the issues that matter most to voters. Instead, Trump has chosen to double down and rant about myriad issues that are more personal to him, from the Federal Reserve to his White House ballroom. “Well, no, he’s not panicked. He gets angry. I mean, Trump doesn’t really panic,” Wolff told his Inside Trump’s Head co-host Joanna Coles when asked whether the president’s bizarre Truth Social posts are a sign of panic. “It’s not panic in that sense that, ‘Oh, I’ve got a problem here and I’ve got to do something. I’ve got to solve the problem.’ Rather, it’s a different kind of response. It’s blaming someone. It’s rage. It’s anger. So it’s anger rather than panic. And he’s starting to feel that, I think,” he continued. Trump, 79, has been hard at work touting his administration’s policies, participating in a DoorDash delivery stunt, and giving an economic pep talk to voters in Las Vegas last week as his war with Iran raged on. But polling numbers are showing flashing red lights for the president and the Republican Party at large - The Daily Beast

Chaos in the Middle East. A fresh verbal broadside from Washington aimed at Canada. And a deeply puzzling U.S. move to extend sanctions waivers tied to Russian oil exports - a decision Kyiv has every right to view with anger and disbelief. In today’s World Briefing, I connect three seemingly separate headlines that reveal a bigger story: an overstretched White House, allies being publicly slighted, and mixed signals on Russia just as Ukraine continues to endure relentless attacks. From energy markets and election politics to alliance management and wartime trust, this is another reminder that global leadership is not just about what you say - it’s about consistency.
Watch the video above for the context behind the chaos.

US President Trump said that US negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday to hold a second round of talks with Iran. He again threatened to destroy the entire country of Iran if its government refuses to make a deal with the US. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran isn’t seeking war and is acting only in self-defence against the attack by the US and Israel, stressing his country’s commitment to peace and regional stability - Al Jazeera

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has condemned a US decision to extend the period during which Russia is allowed to sell oil despite Western sanctions. The move means countries can purchase Russian oil and petroleum products already loaded on vessels at sea until 16 May. The US argues that the waiver is meant to ease the energy supply crunch sparked by the US-Israel war with Iran. But in his remarks on Sunday, Zelensky said “every dollar paid for Russian oil is money for the war” in Ukraine. Widespread sanctions have been in place against Russia since President Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of its neighbour in February 2022. The US move to ease Russian sanctions on 13 March was widely condemned by Zelensky as well as his European allies. Extending the waiver on Friday, the US said it wanted “to ensure oil is available to those ⁠who need it” as negotiations to end the war “accelerate”. The Ukrainian leader said Russia had more than 110 tankers from its “shadow fleet” - vessels with obscured ownership designed to help it bypass sanctions - with “over 12 million tons” of oil. Their sale, he added, would bring $10bn (£7.4bn) to Moscow’s coffers as “a resource that is directly converted into new strikes against Ukraine” - BBC

Bulgaria’s former president and air force chief, Rumen Radev, is on course to win a general election on Sunday with promises to combat the all-pervasive “mafia state” that he accuses of undermining the EU’s poorest country. Roiled by incessant political crises and weakened by fragile coalitions, the Balkan nation of 6.7 million is becoming close to ungovernable. It has had seven prime ministers since 2021 — none of them serving a full term — and this weekend’s vote will be the eighth election in five years. It is far from clear, however, whether former MiG-29 fighter pilot Radev, a skeptic on support for Ukraine and on Bulgaria’s accession to the euro this year, will be able to break this deadlock. According to POLITICO’s Poll of Polls, his newly founded Progressive Bulgaria movement is set to win only 31 percent of the vote, meaning he will face the same struggles as his ill-fated predecessors in forging a stable governing coalition. His political agenda is also cryptic, and Brussels has grounds to be wary. Radev has long taken Kremlin-aligned positions on Ukraine and has hinted he wanted to import Russian oil. And despite his pledge to crack down on the country’s ubiquitous top-level graft, his critics point out that Progressive Bulgaria is attracting support from parties with their own checkered histories of nationalism and corruption - Politico

A Bellingcat investigation found that almost 800 Hungarian government email addresses and associated passwords are circulating online, revealing basic vulnerabilities in the security protocols of ministries involved in classified and sensitive work. Analysis of breach data showed that 12 out of the government’s 13 ministries were affected, in some cases exposing the confidential information of military personnel and civil servants posted abroad. Among those affected were a senior military officer responsible for information security, a counter terrorism coordinator in the foreign affairs department, and an employee whose role was to identify hybrid threats against the country. Hungary’s newly elected prime minister, Peter Magyar, has said he expects to overhaul the way the government conducts its business after ousting Viktor Orban last week.

• The European Commission has agreed to work with Péter Magyar’s incoming Tisza Party government to help release billions in frozen EU funds earmarked for Hungary. A senior Brussels delegation, led by Björn Seibert, chief of staff to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, held two days of informal talks in Budapest — an unprecedented move before the new government has formally taken office, Euronews reported. “There is full agreement on one point: real work must begin to ensure that the EU funds due to the Hungarian people finally arrive in Hungary,” Magyar said after the talks. The Commission has frozen €17 billion of €27 billion allocated to Hungary over corruption and rule-of-law concerns. Budapest is also seeking another €17 billion from the EU’s SAFE defence borrowing instrument. If both tranches are secured, the combined €34 billion could provide a major boost to Hungary’s economy. - Euronews

Indian companies have shipped more than 320 million synthetic opioid pills to West Africa – where they have not been approved by regulators – over the past three years, a Bellingcat investigation has found. Export records from trade data providers show that more than 1,400 consignments of tapentadol worth almost USD $130 million were sent from India to West Africa between January 2023 and December 2025. Tapentadol, a painkiller two to three times more potent than tramadol, has not been approved for use in most West African countries, where some nations are grappling with an escalating opioid abuse epidemic.

A planned pregame skydiving entrance at Virginia Tech turned into a tense scene Saturday when a parachuter got stuck on the scoreboard. The skydiver was supposed to glide into the stadium carrying a massive American flag ahead of the Hokies’ spring game under new head coach James Franklin ... but instead ended up tangled high above the field. Video shows the chute snagged across the top of the scoreboard wedged between the giant "C" and "H" ... with the skydiver left dangling for roughly 20 minutes as fans looked on. At one point, the parachuter dropped the large American flag and a second chute into the stands below while waiting to be rescued. First responders eventually stepped in and safely brought the skydiver down -- with Virginia Tech later confirming the individual was secure and stable, and ultimately not injured - TMZ

The journals…..

World Briefing Plus is back - and this week I’m reporting from Chișinău, gateway to my next assignment: Armenia.

Starting Monday, I’ll spend a week on the ground in one of the world’s most underreported yet strategically important countries - a nation with major potential as a remote-work and creator hub, and as a vital new trade and energy corridor linking Europe, the Caucasus and beyond as it carefully pivots away from Russia, manages a fresh peace deal with Azerbaijan, and explores renewed ties with Turkey. I’ll also head to Armenia’s border with Iran to hear directly from people living on a sensitive geopolitical fault line.

But first: this week’s big global shocks.

I unpack the worsening instability in the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks on shipping and fresh Iranian threats are once again rattling global energy markets - despite rosy declarations from Washington. From Manila to Bangkok to Odesa to Chișinău, higher fuel costs are squeezing households, businesses and airlines alike. I explain why travelers should brace for more pain ahead.

I also examine the highly controversial U.S. decision to extend sanctions relief on Russian oil - a move that risks funnelling yet more money into the Kremlin’s war machine as Ukrainian cities remain under attack.

And I revisit the key arguments in my latest Globe and Mail op-ed: why Volodymyr Zelensky should use newfound leverage with Gulf states to pressure Moscow - and why Turkey, not Washington, should be seen as the more credible bridge toward serious negotiations.

This is the kind of on-the-ground analysis only paid subscribers receive each Saturday. Upgrade today to a paid subscription to support independent journalism and unlock the full video. You can also support my reporting and commentary mission via my Patreon page or through PayPal.

👇 Scroll down below the paywall to watch now.

***I invite you to view a clip from my opening keynote to the annual Toronto Ukrainian Film Festival, which I delivered live early Friday morning from Odesa. Click here to watch

Read more

Pre-war planning meant Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal and leadership, according to Western military intelligence assessments — which also say it retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails. The country has sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and its most senior leaders have been killed. But operational planning undertaken in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximizing the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments said, requesting anonymity discussing private reports. These provide a much more nuanced picture of the outcomes of the US-Israeli operation than that portrayed by President Donald Trump and US administration officials. The effectiveness of Iran’s earlier military planning also raises the prospect that it could use the current ceasefire to make preparations for any resumption of hostilities. “Iran has been totally OBLITERATED, Militarily, and otherwise,” Trump posted on Truth Social on Monday. When the president announced the ceasefire last week, he said the US had “already met and exceeded all military objectives.” Instead, plans put in place by Iran to replace senior military leaders in the event they were killed meant the country was able to minimize disruption to its command structures when they were targeted in the first days of the war, the people said. It also appears that Iran retains solid reserves of long-range missiles, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. It still has thousands of drones in its armory, the people added. Iran’s missile stocks are a closely guarded secret. Some Western officials privately claim the US would need to conduct around two to three more weeks of strikes to completely degrade Iranian capabilities. But others say that may be an optimistic scenario: it could take longer, and Iran’s industrial and nuclear capabilities may still not be wiped out. Iran has dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and also shifts launchers around to different sites, making it harder for the US to quickly eliminate them. The picture sits at odds with the assessment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a press briefing on April 8: “By any measure, Epic Fury decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come,” he said, using the administration’s name for its operation - Bloomberg

• Some Gulf and European leaders reportedly fear that it could take six months or more to negotiate a US-Iran peace deal, amid calls to urgently reopen the Strait of Hormuz to avoid severe food and energy supply shocks globally. Several leaders have urged an extended ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, according to Bloomberg, pressing for a deal that would ban Iran from enriching uranium or building long-range missiles. US President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed to hand over its “nuclear dust,” enriched uranium, but Iran has not confirmed the concession - Semafor

• US President Donald Trump expressed confidence on Thursday that an agreement could soon be reached to end the Iran war. Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran could take place over the weekend and an extension of a two-week ceasefire was possible, but may not be needed as Tehran wanted a deal. “We're going to see what happens. But I think we’re very close to making a deal with Iran,” he told reporters outside the White House, adding if an agreement was reached and signed in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, he may go there for the occasion. “I would go to Pakistan, yeah. Pakistan has been great...” he told reporters. “If the deal is signed in Islamabad, I might go…they want me.” - Al Arabiya

• Russian stocks fell on Friday after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open” on the heels of a ceasefire announcement between Israel and Lebanon.

  The ruble-denominated MOEX benchmark slid 0.7%. The MOEXOG oil and gas index led the decline among major indices, dropping 2.7%. Rosneft shares fell by more than 4%, while Gazprom Neft dropped nearly 3%. Lukoil and Tatneft both saw declines of more than 2%. Global oil prices were down more than 11%, with Brent crude futures dropping to around $88 per barrel. The decline extended previous losses as investors hoped for further talks between the U.S. and Iran over the coming weekend. In a post published on X, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi wrote: “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.” The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire, which Tehran had demanded apply to Israel and Lebanon as well, is scheduled to end at midnight next Wednesday unless the two sides agree to an extension. The 10-day pause in hostilities between Israel and Lebanon ends on April 26. Russia has been a primary financial beneficiary of the war in Iran. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has left governments scrambling to find alternative supplies of oil and other crucial resources that normally pass through the narrow waterway. Moscow’s revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19 billion in March, according to the International Energy Agency, a sharp reversal from February, when revenues hit a post-invasion low of $9.75 billion. The Kremlin said earlier in April that the Strait of Hormuz remained open to Russian ships - Moscow Times

The Pentagon’s top policy official is warning that future military support for Ukraine cannot depend on the United States, sharpening pressure on European allies to take the lead. In remarks delivered at this week’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Berlin and published on X on Thursday evening, Elbridge Colby said Washington’s support had relied heavily on “drawing down finite U.S. stockpiles,” an approach he signaled is no longer sustainable. “Europe must accelerate its assumption of primary responsibility for the conventional defense of the continent,” Colby said. “This is not a matter of choice, but of strategic necessity.” He added that continued assistance to Kyiv “must not rely on significant U.S. contributions,” urging allies to step up funding and production instead. Under Donald Trump, new U.S. military aid to Ukraine has fallen to almost nothing. However, Washington is willing to sell weapons to Kyiv financed by other allies under the NATO-led Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List program, which gathered €3.7 billion last year for arms purchases. This week, Vice President JD Vance said he was proud of the U.S. halting military aid to Ukraine. “It’s one of the things I’m proudest that we’ve done in this administration is we’ve told Europe that if you want to buy weapons, you can, but the United States is not buying weapons and sending them to Ukraine anymore,” he said at a Turning Point USA event - Politico

• Ukraine has damaged or destroyed so much Russian oil and gas infrastructure in the past two weeks that it has prompted Russia to issue a warning to European countries and industries against funding its long-range drone production. The warning came after Ukraine reached a new series of agreements with European defence companies this week. “We consider this decision to be a deliberate step leading to a sharp escalation of the military and political situation on the entire European continent and creeping transformation of these countries into a strategic rear for Ukraine,” said a statement from the Russian defence ministry on Wednesday this week. Russia warned of “unpredictable consequences” and said that “the moves of European leaders are increasingly dragging these countries into the war with Russia.” It published a list of addresses of European companies involved in joint weapons production with Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, a former president of Russia and deputy head of its National Security Council, later clarified that this amounted to “a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces”. - Al Jazeera

Hungary's incoming Prime Minister Péter Magyar said on Friday that oil flows from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline could resume next week. Magyar said the Hungarian oil and gas concern MOL MOLB.BU told him that “based on information from their partners they expect the Druzhba oil pipeline to restart next week.” The pipeline, which delivers Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia via Ukraine’s territory, has been a source of contention between Budapest and Kyiv after flows were stopped when it sustained damage in a Russian drone strike in late January. Landlocked Hungary is heavily dependent on Russia for energy and after flows through the pipe were stopped, outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán used his veto to block a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. Meanwhile, European Union officials are meeting in Budapest with members of Magyar's team on Friday about several issues, including unlocking about €17 billion of aid for Hungary that was withheld during Orbán's premiership - Euronews

U.S. public broadcaster NPR said it had received two gifts totaling $113 million, including the largest donation from a living donor in the network’s history. Connie Ballmer, the philanthropist and co-founder of the Ballmer Group, a philanthropic organization she leads with her husband, the billionaire former Microsoft executive Steve Ballmer, gave NPR $80 million for its digital innovation efforts. An anonymous donor gave $33 million to support the NPR Network, a web of affiliated public radio stations across the United States. “I support NPR because an informed public is the bedrock of our society, and democracy requires strong, independent journalism,” Ms. Ballmer said in a statement. “My hope is that this commitment provides the stability and the spark NPR needs to innovate boldly and strengthen its national network.” Last year, Congress clawed back $500 million in annual funding from public broadcasters, sending hundreds of stations scrambling. NPR was somewhat insulated from the direct financial impacts of that decision, because a small fraction of its budget came directly from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the government-funded company that gave away funds to NPR and PBS stations. But the ripple effects still have taken a toll - NYT

U.S. Navy families have spoken out about the state of the food being served to their sons and daughters amid President Donald Trump’s war in the Middle East. Crew on board aircraft carriers the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford are beginning to feel the effects. Pictures obtained by the Center on Conscience & War and published by USA Today show the grim meals the sailors and Marines are being served. One sailor on the USS Abraham Lincoln said, “The food is tasteless, and there’s not nearly enough, and they’re hungry all the time,” one community organizer trying to get packages to the afflicted fighters reported. One image shows a dry patty, plastic-looking carrots, and a slab of processed meat on a plastic tray. Another now-viral image shows shredded meat and a single tortilla on a mostly empty tray. “We have the strongest military in the world. You shouldn’t be running out of food, and you shouldn’t not be able to get mail on the ship,” Dan, 63, the father of a service member struggling with the situation told USA Today. “The one thing we had over our adversaries [was] we fed our people,” Dan, who also served in the Marines and asked the paper to identify him only by his first name to shield his child from potential retaliation, added - The Daily Beast

The journals….

Russia unleashed one of its most intense bombardments in months, firing hundreds of drones and missiles at Kyiv, Dnipro, and cities across Ukraine - killing at least 19 people nationwide. Here in Odesa, where I’m reporting from Ground Zero, nine people were killed and at least 20 injured. My video report is above. If you value frontline, on-the-ground insight like this, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to World Briefing.

🔥 World Briefing Hot Take

As the guns fall (briefly) silent in the Middle East, Ukraine is learning - again - what happens when global attention shifts and resources follow.

This is not coincidence. It’s choreography.

The same Iranian-made drones now terrifying Gulf states are the ones that have battered Ukrainian cities for years. But here’s the twist: Kyiv has become one of the world’s leading experts in stopping them. That hard-earned battlefield know-how is suddenly in demand - in capitals (i.e. Abu Dhabi) that, until recently, were happy to hedge, welcoming Russian money and influence while Ukraine burned.

That creates leverage. Real leverage.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy now has an opening to press those same Gulf states to move beyond quiet cooperation and start exerting meaningful pressure on Moscow to come to the table in good faith. If they want protection, they should help deliver it - not just for themselves, but for Ukraine. Full stop!

And he should go further.

There are growing signs Zelensky is shedding the cautious deference that once defined his relationship with Washington. Good. Because the uncomfortable reality is that U.S.-led diplomacy - whether in Ukraine or the Middle East - has been inconsistent, transactional, and often ineffective. At a moment like this, Ukraine cannot afford to be tethered to that.

It’s time to pivot.

Time to tell the Americans, politely but firmly, to step aside - and bring in a mediator with real skin in the game: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Türkiye. Ankara has channels to both Kyiv and Moscow, a direct stake in Black Sea security, and a track record - however imperfect - of getting both sides to the table.

From here in Odesa, the consequences of not making that shift are visible everywhere. Apartment blocks ripped open. Power grids strained. A population exhausted by the randomness of nightly bombardments. And a growing, unmistakable truth: no inch of Ukraine feels safe anymore - especially after one of the most violent overnight Russian attacks in months.

This is the brutal asymmetry at the heart of the war. Russia can keep feeding the grinder - with manpower, with money, with time.

Ukraine cannot, as I suggested in my just-published Globe and Mail OpEd.

Which is why this moment matters. Not just on the battlefield, but at the negotiating table. Zelensky has new cards to play - the question is whether he plays them boldly enough, and fast enough, before the window closes.

News Briefs
Russia launched more than 700 drones and missiles at Ukraine in multiple waves overnight, killing at least 18 people in what local officials said was the deadliest attack in months. Officials said nine people had been killed in the southern port city of Odesa, five in the central city of Dnipro, and four - including a child - in the capital, Kyiv. In Russia, two people - including a child - were killed in a Ukrainian drone attack in the southern Krasnodar region, Moscow said. This comes after a brief ceasefire took place over Orthodox Easter last weekend - though both sides accused one another of hundreds of violations. Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In Kyiv, warning sirens jolted people awake at 02:30 local time on Thursday (23:30 GMT on Wednesday), followed soon after by the first explosions. Images posted online by eyewitnesses show bright orange fires and huge plumes of black smoke in central areas of the city. In one video, a drone was filmed slamming straight into the side of an apartment block. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko wrote on Telegram that a 12-year-old boy was among four people killed. Another 45 people were injured. The mayor added that rescuers had pulled a mother and child from the ruins of a 16-storey residential building that collapsed in the city’s central Podil district. Four emergency medical workers were among those injured in the north of the capital. In Dnipro, regional head Oleksandr Ganzha said four people were killed and dozen had been injured in the Russian attack - before the city’s Mayor Borys Filatov said on Thursday that another body had been found. In the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, a drone strike injured a 77-year-old woman and a 66-year-old man, an official said. Two cities in the south, Mykolaiv and Kherson, have been left without power, according to local officials. Ukraine’s air force said on Thursday morning that Russia had launched 659 drones and 44 cruise and ballistic missiles in the prior 24 hours. It said that 636 drones and 31 missiles had been shot down - but there had been direct hits in 26 locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned earlier this week that Ukraine was facing a critical shortage of Patriot air defence missiles, the only means it has of intercepting Russia’s ballistic missiles. Global stocks of the US-made missiles are limited and many have been diverted to the Middle East since the US and Israel began attacking Iran in February. - BBC

A 10-day cease-fire went into effect at midnight on Friday morning in Lebanon. The truce pauses fighting between Israeli forces and the militant group Hezbollah, removing a major obstacle to peace talks between the United States and Iran. Israeli and Lebanese officials had confirmed they would implement the truce, which was first announced by President Trump after a diplomatic push by the U.S. government earlier in the day. Hezbollah acknowledged the cease-fire in a pair of statements on Thursday, but did not directly address whether it would accept the truce, saying its actions would be “based on how developments unfold.” Israel and Hezbollah had continued to trade strikes in the hours before the cease-fire was set to take effect, according to statements from each military. The U.S. State Department, outlining the truce in a memo on Thursday, said that Israel would retain its right “to take all necessary measures in self-defense,” but would not carry out “offensive operations” against Lebanese targets by land, air or sea. The Lebanese government, with international support, is expected to take “meaningful steps” to prevent Hezbollah from carrying out attacks against Israeli targets. The Lebanese government does not have direct control over Hezbollah, an armed group considered more powerful than the state’s military. Still, Hezbollah has abided by some previous deals negotiated by the Lebanese government. The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful proxy, has threatened to upend the two-week cease-fire between the United States and Iran, which is set to expire next week. Iran has insisted the cease-fire must cover attacks on its ally Hezbollah, too. Mr. Trump told reporters at the White House that the next in-person negotiations with Iran might occur this weekend. Mr. Trump said he would consider extending the pause in fighting if the United States is close to a deal with Iran. He has repeatedly suggested a deal is near. More than 2,100 people have been killed in Lebanon during the current round of fighting, Lebanese authorities say, and over one million residents displaced - NYT

• US oil bosses warn Donald Trump to block Iran’s Strait of Hormuz toll, saying it could set a dangerous precedent that other countries could exploit - FT

• The Iran war is raising debt costs for African countries, sparking warnings that some economies could default as interest rates soar. Several nations on the continent are only just recovering from a post-pandemic shock that sent debt burdens soaring, and inflationary pressures set off by the war in the Middle East now risk unfurling that progress. The IMF this week forecast that economic growth will cool throughout the region in 2026, further compounding challenges: Citi’s chief Africa economist said Malawi, Mozambique, and Senegal could all default on their debts in the next two years. “The space countries have to weather this crisis is severely limited,” one expert told Bloomberg - Semafor

Russian influencers and public figures have issued a series of rare appeals to President Vladimir Putin, saying many Russians are afraid to speak up about problems they face and criticizing what they called “an intention to bring us back to the U.S.S.R.” The appeals began when blogger and influencer Viktoria Bonya called on Putin to address mounting social and economic pressures that have dominated national headlines in recent weeks. “The people are afraid of you, artists are afraid, governors are afraid,” she said, adding that she was not. “There is a huge wall between you and us ordinary people, and I want to break through that wall,” she said in the 18-minute video, which has garnered 24.1 million views and over 1 million likes in the past two days. “We consider you an excellent politician, but there is a lot you don’t know,” said Bonya, who is best known for appearing on the popular reality TV show Dom-2 (“House-2”) and lives outside Russia. She listed issues “that no governor would tell” Putin about, including devastating flooding in Dagestan, oil pollution along the Black Sea coast, the culling of livestock in Siberia and internet shutdowns, as well as rising prices and tax burdens on small businesses. “People are screaming out loud right now. They’ve been stripped of their last resources and they continue to lose more. Businesses are dying,” she said. “People are googling how to leave Russia. It’s one of the most popular search queries right now.” As the video went viral, some viewers speculated that she could be aligning herself with the Russian opposition or was even acting on the instruction of foreign intelligence. “I’m not some opposition figure. I never have been and I don’t plan to be. I’m just a person with a heart,” Bonya said in response to interview requests from exiled media. She later said she had not been paid to record the appeal. Other critics questioned whether the appeals to Putin were actually a PR campaign aimed at portraying him as a “strong president” unaware of problems on the ground or a more nuanced signal from competing factions seeking to ease restrictions in Russia. Public criticism of Putin or government policies can lead to prosecution and blacklisting by the authorities for both celebrities and ordinary citizens. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday said Bonya had brought up “very significant issues,” but that authorities were already working to address them. “We have seen the video. It is quite popular and has received a large number of views,” Peskov said, adding that “none of these [problems] have been left without attention.” Also on Wednesday, popular blogger Aiza (also known as Aiza-Liluna Ai or Aiza Dolmatova) posted an eight-minute video in which she sharply criticized corruption among lawmakers as well as rising taxes and utility tariffs. In the since-deleted clip, Aiza suggested that Putin is likely “not actually aware” of what is happening and only receives information from specially prepared briefings - Moscow Times

Europe has “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left”, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned. Stocks would reach a tipping point in June if Europe was unable to replace at least half of its imports from the Middle East, the organisation said in a report this week. The Strait of Hormuz, a key route for jet fuel out of the Gulf, has been effectively closed by Iran for more than six weeks in response to US and Israeli attacks, sending the price rocketing and prompting fears of shortages. IEA executive director Fatih Birol told AP there could soon be flight cancellations if supplies remained blocked. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA- which advises 32 member countries on energy supply and security - said exports from the Gulf region were the largest source of jet fuel to the global market. Refineries in other major exporting countries, such as Korea, India and China were themselves highly dependent on crude oil imports from the Middle East. As a result, the crisis “has thrown a proverbial wrench into the inner workings of the aviation fuel markets”, it said. A spokesperson for the UK government told the BBC that it was working with fuel suppliers and airlines to “ensure people keep moving and businesses are supported” - BBC

• The high cost of the fuel is prompting airline groups to cut less profitable routes and ground less efficient older aircraft. Lufthansa on Thursday announced it will retire the whole 27-plane fleet of its CityLine subsidiary this weekend.

  While the group had already planned to retire the fleet, announcing the phase-out in 2024, “the current crisis is now forcing us to implement this measure earlier,” CFO Till Streichert said in the announcement. In addition to grounding CityLine’s planes, Lufthansa will withdraw its last four Airbus A340-600s and two Boeing 747-400s from its long-haul fleet as of October. But Lufthansa isn't the only airline affected. Shortly after its announcement, KLM said it “will operate 80 fewer return flights to and from [Amsterdam] Schiphol” Airport in May - Politico

The journals…..

🔥 World Briefing Hot Take

This is no longer a loose alignment of convenience - it’s starting to look and operate like a coordinated war-fighting ecosystem.

What makes this moment so dangerous is not just that Iran is striking U.S. and allied targets - it’s how it’s doing so. Chinese satellite capability providing the eyes. Reported Russian intelligence supplying the coordinates. Iranian drones and missiles delivering the punch. Different flags, same battlefield effect.

For years, Washington and its allies treated these relationships as parallel challenges. But the lines are now blurring in real time. If U.S. intelligence is correct, Moscow is not just backing Tehran politically - it may be actively helping it target American ships and installations. And Beijing, whether directly complicit or not, is enabling a leap in Iran’s surveillance and strike capability that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

And yet - here’s where it gets even more uncomfortable.

According to reporting cited by The New York Times, U.S. intelligence believes China may be edging closer to supplying weapons and military support to Iran, even as Washington appears reluctant to escalate directly with Beijing. Donald Trump has publicly emphasized his “good relationship” with Xi Jinping and is pressing ahead with a high-stakes summit in China next month - signaling a clear preference for a diplomatic and political win over confrontation, despite mounting concerns about Beijing’s role.

In other words, at the very moment a shadow alliance may be sharpening its battlefield coordination, the West’s response risks being constrained by optics, timing - and the pursuit of headline diplomacy.

Now layer in Tehran’s threat to effectively shut down vast swathes of the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea - arteries that power a significant share of the global economy - and you begin to see the contours of something much bigger: not just a regional war, but a coordinated pressure campaign on the global system itself.

And here’s the kicker: this “axis” doesn’t need a formal treaty or a NATO-style Article 5 to be effective. It’s already functioning through deniability, plausible distance, and asymmetric cooperation - just enough coordination to shift the balance, not enough to trigger a unified Western response.

The result? The rules-based international order isn’t just under strain - it’s being outmaneuvered by a network that has figured out how to fight below the threshold of accountability.

And if this is the model going forward, the question isn’t whether the West can respond - it’s whether it even knows who, exactly, it’s responding to anymore.

News Briefs:
Iran secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the ongoing war, the Financial Times reported. Leaked Iranian military documents show the satellite, known as TEE-01B, was acquired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force in late 2024 after it was launched into space from China. Time-stamped coordinates lists, satellite imagery and orbital analysis show that Iranian military commanders later tasks the satellite to monitor key US military sites. The images were taken in March before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations. Evidence that Russia has also provided the Iranian military with specific satellite intelligence to help the IRGC target American ships, along with military and diplomatic installations throughout the Middle East, has also reportedly been obtained by US intelligence agencies. Earlier reports from CNN and The New York Times that say US intelligence agencies have information about possible shipments from China of shoulder-fired missiles to Iran. The New York Times, citing US officials, said the shipment has already been sent, while CNN’s reporting said China was preparing to send a shipment in the coming weeks - FT/RFE/RL

• Ali Abdollahi - the commander for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, the country’s highest operational command co-ordinating the armed forces - says that if the US continues its blockade and creates “insecurity for Iran’s commercial vessels and oil tankers”, it will “constitute a prelude to a violation of the ceasefire”. Abdollahi adds that Iran’s armed forces would consequently not allow “any exports or imports to continue in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea”. He did not specify which countries’ exports and imports could be affected, although the bodies of water he mentions cover a vast area - BBC

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Beijing as China steps up diplomatic efforts around the war in Iran amid a US blockade on vessels calling at Iranian ⁠ports that the Chinese Foreign Ministry has called “dangerous and irresponsible.” Lavrov held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on April 15, which covered the wars in Iran and Ukraine, as well as Beijing and Moscow’s deepening ties, according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry. Chinese leader Xi Jinping also met with Lavrov in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where he urged Russia and China to “firmly defend their legitimate interests and safeguard the unity of Global South countries.” The Chinese readout of Xi’s remarks did not mention the war in Iran, but his comments appeared to reference growing fears that a long-term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz -- a strategic chokepoint for the world's fertilizer and energy supplies -- could trigger a economic and food crisis that hits countries in the Global South particularly hard. Xi has hosted the leaders of Spain, Vietnam and Abu Dhabi in recent days, but the arrival of the top Russian diplomat was the main focus this week, as Russia is a top energy supplier for China - RFE/RL / Moscow Times

Israel and Lebanon held their first direct diplomatic talks since 1993, though the meeting didn’t result in a major breakthrough to end a brutal war between Israel and Hezbollah. The Iran-backed group wasn’t represented at the Washington meeting and said it wouldn’t abide by any deal the two sides reached, complicating the path to peace even as the countries agreed to further negotiations. US President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said Washington and Tehran could hold additional talks in the coming days after marathon weekend negotiations stalled. The US hopes to pressure Iran to make concessions with its blockade that came into effect Monday: More than a dozen American warships have confronted six vessels departing an Iranian port, forcing them to turn back - Semafor

World Briefing | News Brief

A sweeping investigation by Bellingcat is raising serious questions about the credibility of official narratives emerging from the United Arab Emirates, particularly as the country comes under sustained Iranian drone attacks.

Drawing on verified open-source evidence - including satellite imagery, geolocated videos, and expert analysis - the report finds that Emirati authorities have, in multiple high-profile cases, downplayed damage, characterized interceptions, or failed to acknowledge direct strikes altogether. The findings come at a sensitive moment for a a country that has carefully cultivated its image as one of the world’s safest hubs for business, aviation and tourism.

The discrepancies are stark. At the strategic oil hub of Fujairah, authorities attributed a major fire to debris from a “successful interception.” Yet video evidence appears to show a drone striking intact, while satellite imagery later confirmed the destruction of multiple storage tanks. Similar contradictions emerged at Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port - one of the busiest in the Middle East - where fires at separate locations were officially linked to debris, despite independent reporting pointing to direct Iranian strikes.

In Dubai itself, damage to the iconic Burj Al Arab was described by officials as “limited” and caused by shrapnel. But footage reviewed by investigators shows flames engulfing multiple floors - suggesting a far more serious impact. Other incidents, including a strike on the Fairmont Palm hotel and a drone hit on a residential tower, were either downplayed or omitted entirely from official accounts. A strike near Dubai International Airport was never publicly acknowledged, despite verified footage showing an explosion close to a terminal.

At the same time, authorities have moved aggressively to control the narrative. The UAE’s attorney general has ordered arrests and fast-track trials for dozens accused of sharing “misleading” footage online, while police have detained more than 100 individuals suspected of filming or posting strike-related content. Strict cybercrime laws - including prison sentences and heavy fines - have created a chilling effect, with fewer videos emerging as awareness of enforcement grows.

Overlaying this is a parallel information campaign. A number of near-identical videos posted by influencers - including Anastasiya Makshayeva, a UAE transplant from Kazakhstan with almost 400,000 followers on TikTok and 2.3 million on Instagram - promoting the UAE’s safety and leadership appeared, often using the format: “You live in Dubai, aren’t you scared?” followed by images of UAE leaders and the response: “No, because I know who protects us.”

Investigators and media analysts, including reporting cited by the BBC, identified these coordinated pro-government messaging by influencers - some posting near-identical videos within seconds - reinforcing narratives of safety and control. Critics argue that licensed influencers in the UAE increasingly function as extensions of state messaging.

The broader implication is unsettling: a widening gap between observable reality and official communication at a time of active conflict. With at least a dozen people reported killed and nearly 200 injured since the strikes began, analysts warn that restrictions on reporting - under the banner of national security - risk undermining public trust and limiting access to critical information.

For a country built on perceptions of stability, the findings raise a deeper question: if the facts on the ground are contested, what - and whom - can audiences rely on?

Serbia is emerging as ground zero in a sprawling and dangerous trucking scheme uncovered by CBS 60 Minutes - one that could be putting millions of motorists at risk on US roads. At the center of the investigation is Super Ego Holding, a Serbia- and U.S.-linked network of trucking and leasing companies now under federal scrutiny, accused of operating so-called “chameleon carriers”: fleets that repeatedly shut down and relaunch under new identities to wipe away safety violations. These shadow networks exploit gaps in U.S. regulation, allowing operators - often based overseas - to set up a trucking company online in a matter of weeks, sometimes for as little as $1,000. By simply changing names and Department of Transportation identifiers, companies can erase records of crashes, violations, and unsafe practices, re-entering the system as “clean” carriers. Industry estimates suggest that as many as 10–20% of the roughly 700,000 U.S. trucking companies may be operating in this grey zone. The consequences are severe. Chameleon carriers are linked to thousands of safety violations - from excessive driving hours to poor maintenance and substance abuse - and are reportedly four times more likely to be involved in crashes. In one case tied to the Super Ego network, a speeding truck slammed into a school bus, critically injuring two children. Overall, more than 5,300 people died in U.S. truck-related accidents in 2024, underscoring the scale of the risk. Despite mounting evidence, enforcement remains thin. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration has just 350 investigators overseeing the entire industry, though officials say reforms and new systems are in the works. Meanwhile, whistleblowers and drivers describe a profit-driven model that prioritizes revenue over safety—raising urgent questions about oversight, accountability, and how a Serbia-linked operation became a key node in a globalized loophole with deadly consequences on American roads.

A public backlash over tightening internet restrictions in Russia, particularly against the popular Telegram service, is forcing a Kremlin rethink amid worries the crackdown is hurting President Vladimir Putin’s support. The push by Russia’s FSB security service for tougher controls has prompted some top officials to warn of political and economic risks from barring access to the internet, according to people familiar with the discussions. That’s likely to slow the crackdown, allowing Telegram to continue functioning in Russia, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal issues. “It’s clear that internet restrictions are causing inconvenience for many citizens, but that’s how it is now,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Tuesday, insisting the measures were necessary on security grounds and were supported by most Russians. “Once the need for these measures disappears, service will be fully restored and normalized.” Russian authorities have waged a relentless campaign against social media platforms including YouTube, Facebook, WhatsApp and Instagram as part of efforts to suppress dissent since Putin ordered the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. More recently, they have pushed Russians to adopt a state-run “super-app” called Max, modeled after China’s WeChat, including by severely limiting access to Telegram. Widespread mobile internet outages for weeks in Moscow, a city of more than 13 million people, also prompted an outcry in March as the authorities appeared to test further controls on the nation’s online infrastructure. The Kremlin justified the disruption as a security measure. There’s also been a push to restrict Russians’ usage of virtual private networks, or VPNs, that help them to evade bans on blocked content. It’s unclear how far officials ultimately intend to go to limit online access in Russia. But discontent over the daily inconveniences for people who’ve grown reliant on digital services may be feeding into Putin’s declining public rating as Russians grow tired of disruption linked to the war. Trust in Putin has fallen by more than eight percentage points since January to 67.8%, according to the state-run pollster VTsIOM. By early March, it had reached its lowest level since the war began. That’s a problem for the Kremlin as it seeks to manage the public mood ahead of parliamentary elections in Russia scheduled for September. And it undermines official narratives that the public remains united behind Putin in the conflict with Ukraine that’s now in its fifth year. “The blocking is most noticeable among the relatively active, affluent populations of large cities, who were already dissatisfied with the government,” said Denis Volkov, head of another Moscow-based pollster, Levada, whose own polling hasn’t shown a sharp decline in Putin’s rating so far. “It has a lesser impact on the mood of Putin’s loyal electorate that watches television.” - Bloomberg

Approximately 250 Rohingya refugees and Bangladeshi nationals are missing after a boat capsized in the Andaman Sea, the United Nations refugee agency and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said. Loaded with men, women and children, the trawler reportedly sank due to strong winds, “rough seas and overcrowding”, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the IOM said in a joint statement issued on Tuesday. The trawler had departed Teknaf in southern Bangladesh and was attempting to reach Malaysia, according to reports. “This tragedy highlights the devastating human cost ‌of protracted displacement and the continued absence of durable solutions for the Rohingya,” the UNHCR and the IOM said in their statement. Long persecuted in Myanmar, more than 730,000 Rohingya were forced to flee their homes in 2017 amid a campaign of ethnic cleansing by Myanmar’s military, and sought safety in refugee camps in neighbouring Bangladesh. Thousands of Rohingya risk their lives every year to flee both repression and civil war in Myanmar and the overcrowded camps in Bangladesh, often going to sea on makeshift boats to reach neighbouring countries and the possibility of a better life.

The Philippines says it has discovered cyanide on Chinese boats near a disputed South China Sea atoll, warning the substance could be used for “sabotage” against local fish populations. Security officials from the Philippines said on Monday that laboratory tests confirmed the presence of the toxic substance in bottles seized by the Philippine navy last year at Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the Spratly Islands of the South China Sea. The officials warned that the cyanide could have had serious consequences for marine life and weakened the reef supporting a warship that Manila grounded on the atoll to reinforce its maritime claim. “We wish to underscore that the use of cyanide in Ayungin ‌Shoal is a form of sabotage that seeks to kill local fish populations, depriving navy personnel of a vital food source,” Cornelio Valencia, National Security Council spokesperson, told a news conference, using the Philippines’ name for the atoll. Valencia added that cyanide could damage the reef and “ultimately compromise” the warship’s stability. The Foreign Ministry of China rejected the Philippines’ assertions, calling them a “stunt.” China claims nearly all the South China Sea, including areas claimed by Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. A 2016 ruling by an international ‌arbitral ‌tribunal found Beijing’s sweeping claims had no basis under international law, a decision China rejects. More than $3 trillion in annual ship-borne commerce travels through the key waterway - Al Jazeera

Kanye West just buckled under pressure from France, shelving his upcoming concert in the Europeon country over his past antisemitic remarks. Here’s the deal ... the rapper was supposed to perform in the southern port city of Marseille in June, but the French interior minister was “highly determined” to block Kanye’s concert because of his previous support of Nazis and Adolf Hitler, according to The Guardian. In January, Kanye apologized for making those hurtful remarks, taking out a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal to address the issue. But Kanye is still feeling the negative effects of his ugly rhetoric, writing on X Tuesday night that he's postponing his Marseille gig after "much thought and consideration." - TMZ

The journals….

🔥 World Briefing Hot Take

If you want to understand how a global economic crisis actually begins, don’t start with the IMF spreadsheets - start in the Philippines.

I’ve just spent several weeks on the ground there, and the warning signs are no longer theoretical. Diesel prices have more than doubled. Cooking fuel is being subsidized just to keep daily life manageable. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is openly talking about the possibility of the country’s flag carriers grounding long-haul flights due to jet fuel shortages - an extraordinary signal of just how strained energy supply chains have become.

But the far bigger threat is what hasn’t happened yet.

The Philippine economy is deeply wired into the Middle East - not just through oil and LNG imports flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but through its people. Millions of Filipinos work across the Gulf, sending home billions of dollars in remittances that keep entire families afloat - especially in “the provinces,” where the monthly wire transfer from a son in Dubai or a mother in Doha isn’t a bonus, it’s survival.

Now imagine that system under stress.

If the war drags on, if economies in the Gulf slow, or worse, if instability forces workers to return home, that steady flow of remittances could falter. And when it does, the impact won’t be felt first in central banks or stock markets - it will hit kitchen tables, school fees, medical bills. It will ripple through rural economies that have little to fall back on.

This is the blind spot in most global forecasts. The IMF talks about oil shocks, inflation, and downgraded growth. But for countries like the Philippines - and much of Asia - this is a double blow: an energy shock on the way in, and a remittance shock on the way out.

In other words, the global economy isn’t just slowing. In places like the Philippines, the fault lines are already cracking open.

News Briefs
War in the Middle East has upended the world economy, the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, warning in a report that disruptions to oil markets could slow growth, fuel inflation and raise the possibility of a global recession. The sober message came after the global economy had largely weathered a pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and soaring inflation without tipping into a recession. But President Trump’s decision to initiate a war in Iran has stopped the world economy in its tracks. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the I.M.F. sharply downgraded its growth forecasts, exposing the economic fallout from a geopolitical crisis that has roiled energy prices and injected a new bout of uncertainty into the global economy. “The global outlook has abruptly darkened following the outbreak of war in the Middle East,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the I.M.F.’s chief economist, wrote in the report. “The war interrupted what had been a steady growth trajectory.” The I.M.F. said that even if the war is short-lived, the damage to the global economy has been done. In that best-case scenario, the fund expects global growth to fall to 3.1 percent this year from 3.4 percent in 2025. That is down from the 3.3 percent that the fund projected in January. It is also lower than the 3.4 percent growth that it was prepared to project before the war broke out and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were halted. The conflict has sent oil prices above $100 per barrel. Natural gas has spiked more than 80 percent, and surging fertilizer prices are raising costs for farmers. The I.M.F. laid out several scenarios for how the war could play out economically. The most severe case involves disruptions to energy markets that extend into next year. Such a scenario would drag global growth down to 2 percent and send inflation up to 6 percent. “The downside risks are tremendous,” Mr. Gourinchas said. Even a more optimistic case, in which the war concludes expeditiously and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, will leave behind economic carnage. The I.M.F. estimates that oil prices will increase by 21.4 percent this year and that energy commodity prices, which the fund had said would decline in 2026, will instead rise by 19 percent this year - NYT

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping said the global order was “crumbling into disarray” as the Iran war takes a toll on the world’s second-largest economy. Xi had so far largely refrained from commenting directly on the conflict, wary of harming ties with Washington ahead of a high-stakes summit with US President Donald Trump due next month. But while China has weathered the global fuel price spikes better than most — it has huge oil reserves and a world-beating green energy sector — its export-oriented economy has still been battered - Semafor

• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said Monday excise taxes on LPG and kerosene would be trimmed to ease the fuel price shock wrought by the US-Israeli war on Iran. "We were hoping for a good outcome from the peace talks (between) the US and Iran, but it appears they were unable to strike a deal, which is why we will continue to help our people," he told a news conference. "We have reduced the tax on petroleum products directly used by our people in their everyday lives." Following the legislature's earlier passage of a law authorizing him to adjust fuel excise taxes, Marcos said the cost of liquefied petroleum gas, the country's fuel of choice for cooking, would be trimmed by 3.36 pesos (5.6 US cents) per kilogram from Tuesday. He said the price of kerosene, the cooking fuel used by poorer families, would drop by 5.60 pesos per litre. Marcos said he would convene a meeting of a government crisis committee Tuesday to discuss possible excise tax adjustments on gasoline and diesel, the main fuels for public transport. The Philippines sources its crude oil from the Middle East and imports refined petroleum products mainly from Asian refineries that are also dependent on crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz that Iran has effectively closed. Local diesel pump prices have more than doubled to about 145 pesos ($2.41) a litre since the start of the war. The government revealed last week war-driven inflation figures that showed food prices had increased nearly twice as fast in March as the month before - Jakarta Post

Additional US-Iran peace talks “could be happening over next two days” in Pakistan’s capital, President Trump told The New York Post on Tuesday. In an initial phone interview, Trump had claimed that discussions were “happening, but, you know, a little bit slow” before indicating that a second round of direct negotiations to end the seven-week war would likely happen somewhere in Europe. About half an hour later, Trump called back with an update. “You should stay there, really, because something could be happening over the next two days, and we’re more inclined to go there,” he said of Islamabad. “It’s more likely, you know why? Because the field marshal is doing a great job.” Trump was referring to Pakistan Field Marshal Gen. Asim Munir, with whom he forged a connection last year while the country was in the throes of its own war with India, which ended after just four days thanks to a peace deal that the US helped to broker.

• At least three tankers have entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, shipping data from LSEG and Kpler shows. The Panama-flagged Peace Gulf is heading to Hamriyah port in the UAE, after transiting the new route between the islands of Larak and Hormuz in Iranian territorial waters that the IRGC has ordered all vessels to take. Earlier, two US-sanctioned tankers passed through the strategic narrow waterway. As the three vessels transiting the strait were not heading to Iranian ports, they are not affected by the US blockade, which took effect on Monday - Al Jazeera

Autocrats beware: Moscow may be running out of dacha space.

My latest with Times Radio in London dives into the political earthquake in Hungary - where Viktor Orbán’s shock defeat reflects something deeper: years of alleged corruption, crumbling public services, and a younger generation no longer willing to tolerate it.

If the current trajectory holds, the Kremlin may soon face an unexpected housing crisis - too many toppled, pro-Putin strongmen… and not enough luxury dachas to go around.

We also connect the dots beyond Budapest:
- from the grinding realities of the war in Ukraine
- to the widening arc of instability in the Middle East

Because none of these stories exist in isolation.

🎥 Watch the full interview above — and if you value frontline analysis that goes beyond the headlines, consider upgrading to a paid subscription for World Briefing.

Russia’s oil export revenue surged in March, nearly doubling from the previous month after the United States issued a temporary sanctions waiver to stabilize global energy markets, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA said Russia’s revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19 billion last month, a sharp reversal from February, when revenues hit a post-invasion low of $9.75 billion. The rebound came as the U.S. Treasury Department issued a 30-day waiver for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded onto ships between March 12 and April 11. Russia’s total oil exports in March jumped to 7.1 million barrels per day, an increase of 320,000 barrels per day compared to February. Crude oil production also saw a modest increase, rising to 8.96 million barrels per day. Despite the revenue windfall, the IEA warned that Russian oil production could plateau in the near-term as Ukrainian drone strikes continue to degrade its port and energy infrastructure - Moscow Times

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that Kyiv’s forces had, for the first time, captured a Russian position using drones and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) only. “For the first time in the history of this war, an enemy position was taken exclusively by unmanned platforms — ground systems and drones,” he said on Monday, adding that unspecified number of Russian troops surrendered. “The operation was carried out without infantry and without losses on our side,” Zelensky added. While experts told The Moscow Times that Zelensky’s statement was mainly a PR move, it also highlights how unmanned systems “are already transforming both tactics and strategy” in the war. “It was likely not a major breakthrough — probably the capture of a small, secondary position,” Ukrainian military analyst and former SBU security service officer Ivan Stupak told The Moscow Times. “However, the broader point is valid: we may be witnessing a significant shift.” Zelensky did not provide exact details on the location or scale of the operation. But “even if this involved capturing a small position, if it was done entirely without human involvement, then the next position that could be taken may be larger in scale,” Stupak said. Moscow and Kyiv are locked in a competition for drone technology and electronic warfare, with unmanned forces becoming a key tactical tool on the battlefield and beyond as both sides face mounting manpower challenges - Moscow Times

US President Donald Trump told an Italian newspaper on Tuesday he was “shocked” by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and had expected her to be more courageous, delivering a blunt public rebuke to one of his closest European allies. Meloni had been a vociferous supporter of Trump, but she has criticized his decision to go to war with Iran, and on Monday, denounced his weekend criticism of Pope Leo as “unacceptable.” Trump responded in an interview with Corriere della Sera, saying Meloni was “very different from what I thought” and denouncing her for refusing to help re-open the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by Iran. “I’m shocked by her. I thought she had courage. I was wrong,” he is quoted as saying in the Italian-language article posted online. The criticism marks a dramatic change in tone toward Meloni, who was the only European leader to attend the president’s inauguration in 2025. Only last month he told Corriere della Sera that Meloni was “a great leader,” but on Tuesday he accused her of failing to back US efforts over energy security and Iran, and said Italy wanted America “to do the job for her.” - Al Arabiya

UK passengers are facing lengthy delays at airports as a result of the new post-Brexit Entry/Exit System (ESS) checks, which came fully into force on 10 April. The severe delays at the end of the Easter holidays have led to concerns about further travel chaos this summer. The new EES checks mean travel to the Schengen area requires third-party nationals – including British citizens after Brexit – to have facial photos and fingerprints taken. However, the phased introduction of the checks in recent months has been beset by IT problems and staff shortages, leading to queues of three hours or more in some cases. Airlines and airports have warned that lengthy queues could become even more common following the full EES implementation and have called for more flexibility for the system to be paused to avoid travel chaos for passengers. Both the Airports Council International (ACI) Europe and Airlines for Europe have pointed to waiting times of “between two and three hours” at airports across the Schengen area - iPaper

The journals….

🔥 World Briefing Hot Take

The fall of Viktor Orbán is more than a political upset - it’s a rupture in the Kremlin’s influence network inside Europe.

For years, Budapest functioned as Moscow’s most dependable brake inside the EU - pumping the breaks on sanctions, blocking funding, and fracturing unity. With Peter Magyar’s landslide, that dynamic may be ending abruptly. The immediate consequence? A clearer path to unlocking tens of billions of Euros for Ukraine - and a stronger geopolitical hand for Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a decisive moment in the war.

But the deeper story is domestic - and damning.

As author Julius Strauss put it:
“Hungarians…looked at their collapsing state-run hospitals, their crumbling infrastructure, their stagnant economy, and the huge and ostentatious wealth accumulated by Orbán’s associates, and decided it was time for change.”

In other words, this wasn’t just geopolitics. It was a reckoning.

And if that reckoning turns into legal scrutiny - particularly around corruption - don’t be surprised if some look east for refuge. (Worth noting that Magyar on Monday accused outgoing Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó of shredding confidential documents).

As I noted on Times Radio, at the current pace of toppled pro-Moscow autocrats, Moscow may soon be running out of spare dachas to house them.

The battlefield, it turns out, isn’t just in Ukraine.
It’s now firmly inside Europe’s ballot boxes.

News Briefs
Just hours after election results showed opposition leader Peter Magyar had scored a landslide victory to end the rule of Viktor Orban and his right-wing Fidesz party, the man slated to become Hungary’s next prime minister said there’s “no time to waste” in forming a new government. For Brussels, his words couldn’t have come fast enough. After 16 years of Orban’s government sparring with the bloc over various issues -- often related to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia -- the hope in Brussels now is that Budapest will be more cooperative. “Our country has no time to waste. Hungary is in trouble in every respect. It has been plundered, looted, betrayed, indebted, and ruined,” Magyar told a news conference on April 13, the day after his center-right Tizsa party won a two-thirds majority in the 199-seat parliament amid a record voter turnout. By law, Hungary’s president must convene a new parliament within 30 days of an election. Lawmakers then elect a new prime minister who then nominates a cabinet. Many hope that the stumbling blocks Orban erected will be removed, though there is also concern that Magyar, once a staunch loyalist of the defeated prime minister who split over anti-corruption concerns, won’t play ball all the time. The main thing Magyar will try to focus on in Brussels is, after all, not foreign policy. It’s to unblock some 18 billion euros ($21 billion) that the EU has frozen in recent years due to what is perceived as democratic backsliding in the country during the Orban years. The reconstruction of the Hungarian judiciary will be front and center here with Magyar attempting to copy Poland. In an effort to unlock EU funding since coming back to power in late 2023, Warsaw’s centrist government has been working to reverse controversial changes to the courts and public administration introduced by its populist predecessors. However, there is a prevailing fear in Brussels corridors that the Orban government’s vetoes were often a convenient scapegoat for the lack of action. Slovak premier, and close Orban ally, Robert Fico, has already indicated openly that he may continue to veto many initiatives, but EU officials, speaking to RFE/RL on condition of anonymity, admit that there were sometimes other member states hiding quietly behind Budapest. The first test might very well be the 90-billion-euro loan to Ukraine that EU leaders, including Orban, agreed to in December 2025. The cash, which is meant to cover a large part of Kyiv’s needs for this and next year, was subsequently vetoed by Hungary, as Budapest blamed Ukraine for not doing enough to repair the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline carrying oil to Central Europe, which Kyiv says was damaged in a Russian drone strike. The EU has promised that the money will still come in April after pledging financial aid to fix the pipeline and dispatching a team to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently noted that it will be repaired “in the spring.” But until Russian oil flows back to Hungary, neither Magyar nor Orban, who still will be in charge for a few more weeks, will green-light that aid package for Kyiv. While EU officials RFE/RL has spoken to think Magyar will approve the loan, they also point to the fact that his Tisza party members in the European Parliament voted against the proposal in a vote in the chamber earlier this year - RFE/RL

Orbán out. Ukraine gains - potentially. After 16 years, Viktor Orbán is swept aside - and from Odesa, the reaction is immediate: this could unlock €90B in funding, weaken Russian influence, and strengthen Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a critical moment.

🎥 My BBC live hit above, just hours after the results.

👉 Upgrade to a paid subscription to World Briefing for the deeper geopolitical take - because the real story is always more complex than the headline.

Less than a year after signing legislation that will pull nearly 12 million Americans off health insurance by gutting Medicaid, Donald Trump posted an AI-generated image of himself to Truth Social on Sunday depicting him as a Jesus Christ-like figure, with divine light emanating from his hands as he heals a stricken man in a hospital bed with a demon from hell floating in the background. The president has since deleted the post, but not before facing the wrath of some of his most high-profile and loyal Christian supporters, many of whom have stood by the president through multiple other indiscretions and were unable to contain their righteous fury. Riley Gaines, Fox News host and conservative commentator, said she “cannot understand why he’d post this”. “Is he looking for a response? Does he actually think this? Either way, two things are true. 1) a little humility would serve him well 2) God shall not be mocked,” she wrote on X. Megan Basham, a writer at the conservative Daily Wire, called the post “OUTRAGEOUS blasphemy”. “I don’t know if the President thought he was being funny or if he is under the influence of some substance or what possible explanation he could have for this,” she wrote. She demanded Trump “take this down immediately and ask for forgiveness from the American people and then from God”. Isabel Brown, a host on the same outlet, said the image was “disgusting and unacceptable”. “Nothing matters more than Jesus,” she wrote. “This post is, frankly, disgusting and unacceptable, but also a profound misreading of the American people experiencing a true and beautiful revival of faith in Christ.” Steve Deace, a host at the rightwing BlazeTV, posted a single word: “No.” - The Guardian

• Pope Leo said Monday that he was not scared of the White House, after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a stinging attack on the Catholic church leader. “I have no fear of the Trump administration,” Leo told reporters on a plane to Algeria after sparking Trump’s fury by criticizing the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran. “I do believe in the message of the gospel, as a peacemaker,” Leo said, adding he will “not shy away from pronouncing [that] message.” The pontiff added, “To put my message on the same plane as what the president is attempting to do here is not understanding what the message of the gospel is, and I’m sorry to hear that, but I will continue on what I believe is the mission of the church.” Trump blasted Leo on Monday, accusing him of being “WEAK on Crime” and “terrible for Foreign Policy” in a Truth Social post that underscores a widening rift between the White House and the Vatican. In his remarks Monday, the pontiff dismissed Trump’s criticism and said, “I have no intention of having a debate with him.” Senior Italian politicians, for whom Catholics are a key constituency, indirectly backed the pope on Monday, as the diplomatic furor escalates. “May the ministry of the Holy Father help foster the resolution of conflicts and the return of peace, both within and among Nations, following the path laid out by his Predecessors, and provide support and comfort to the Christian communities he will have the opportunity to meet during the journey,” said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in a statement published Monday - Politico

• President Trump told reporters Monday that the AI image appearing to depict him as Jesus Christ was actually an image of Trump as a doctor healing people.

  “I did post it, and I thought it was me as a doctor, and had to do with the Red Cross, as a Red Cross worker there, which we support,” Trump told reporters outside of the Oval Office. “Only the fake news could come up with that one,” he continued. “I just heard about it, and I said how did they come up with that? It’s supposed to be me as a doctor, making people better and I do make people better.”

  Trump originally posted the image late Sunday amid his war of words with Pope Leo XIV - The Hill

• The Cook Political Report shifted four Senate races to the left but noted that the GOP is still favored to maintain its majority in the upper chamber in the November mid-terms. “With an increasingly sour national environment for Republicans, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” wrote Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the report. “But due to the difficulty of the map, winning back a majority still remains a tall order,” she continued. “The GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber. However, that outlook could change in the coming months.”

David Brooks of The Atlantic and Jonathan Capehart of MS NOW join PBS The Newshour’s Geoff Bennett to discuss President Trump's mental acuity after his threats to wipe out a civilization

The U.S. military began its blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, threatening a nearly week-old cease-fire between Iran and the United States. A few hours later, President Trump said Iran had asked to resume negotiations with American officials, but Iran did not immediately confirm his assertion. A U.S. military official said the blockade was in effect without providing additional details. Mr. Trump had said that other countries would join the effort, but on Monday several European countries refused to be involved. He said on social media shortly after it started that any Iranian ships that approached the blockade would be “immediately ELIMINATED.” Mr. Trump announced the blockade on Sunday after high-level talks over the weekend between American and Iranian negotiators ended without a breakthrough. The president did not say whether the United States had agreed to resume talks. Now Mr. Trump wants to prevent Iran from profiting from oil exports and force its leaders to accept American conditions for ending more than a month of war. Iranian forces have largely barred Western tankers and ships from transiting the strait, a Persian Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil typically passes. The price of oil has soared by more than 50 percent at times since the war began in late February. The U.S. military said that it would block ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” while allowing other vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz on their way to other ports. Mr. Trump had conditioned the two-week cease-fire with Iran, which went into effect last Wednesday, on Iran reopening the strait. But in practice, only a handful of tankers have passed through the waterway, with most others avoiding it for fear of Iranian mines or other interference. Two tankers linked to Iran — one carrying naphtha, a petroleum product, and the other carrying gas oil — slipped through the strait hours Monday before the blockade deadline. Kpler, a company that tracks the movement of ships, recorded 14 vessels crossing on Sunday. Iran warned of repercussions. Ebrahim Zolfaghari, an Iranian military spokesman, said Monday that if Iranian ports were threatened, “no port in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman will be safe.” The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose Monday, hovering around $100 a barrel in the early afternoon. U.S. markets opened slightly lower after stocks fell in Asia and Europe. Experts on Iran questioned whether a U.S. blockade would force Iran’s leadership to accept terms that five weeks of war and the killing of many Iranian leaders had not. The Trump administration has been insisting on stopping Iranian nuclear enrichment, as well as confiscating stockpiles of enriched uranium it says could form the basis for a bomb - NYT

Chinese EV exports jumped by 124% in the first quarter of the year, and analysts forecast that the war in the Middle East could further boost their fortunes as gasoline prices soar globally. While much of East Asia has been roiled by higher oil prices, China’s rollout of green energy — along with its enormous stockpiles of crude — has allowed it to weather the crunch. And with countries rushing to invest in renewable energy as they vie for energy independence, Chinese producers are set for a huge windfall; China accounts for around 80% of global solar panel production, and is home to the four largest wind turbine makers. “All paths to renewable power run through China,” The New York Times reported - Semafor

The journals….

The 16-year reign of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is at an end after a crushing election loss on Sunday that will send political shockwaves from Washington to Moscow. The EU’s most autocratic leader — a close ally of both U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin — was on course to lose by a decisive margin in Sunday’s vote. With more than 53 percent of the vote counted, his opponent Péter Magyar looked set to win 136 seats in the 199-seat parliament. Orbán’s Fidesz party was on track to win only 56. Magyar announced on Facebook at 9. 12 p.m. that: “Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has just called to congratulate us on our victory.” If that margin of victory holds, Magyar will secure a supermajority that will allow him to unravel key features of Orbán’s “illiberal democracy” — demolishing the prime minister’s tight control over the judiciary, state companies and the media. Orbán’s departure will come as a huge relief to the EU, whose systemic weaknesses he has exposed and exploited for years, most recently by helping Putin block €90 billion of European support to Ukraine. A heavy loss for the Hungarian premier will also deliver a painful blow to Trump’s MAGA movement, which has viewed Hungary’s prime minister as a talismanic trailblazer for its own brand of anti-immigrant, Christian-oriented nationalism - Politico

• Orbán’s rival, Péter Magyar, said that his government would extradite Polish fugitives—former justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro and his ex-deputy Marcin Romanowski—both sheltered by Orbán—on day one in office. Magyar added they may flee to Minsk or Moscow, hinting Orbán could, too - Szabolcs Panyi via Twitter

• With 66 percent of votes counted, the opposition Tisza party was on course to win 137 seats — more than a two-thirds majority — with Mr. Orban’s party, Fidesz, expected to win just 55 - NYT

President Trump said Sunday that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, stepping up pressure on Iran after marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan ended without a breakthrough. The announcement by Mr. Trump plunged the already brittle truce into further uncertainty. Vice President JD Vance and the chief Iranian negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, met in Pakistan over the weekend, but did not reach a deal to fully reopen the strait or conclusively end the war. “Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” Mr. Trump wrote of his planned naval blockade in one of two lengthy social media posts on the talks. It was not immediately clear whether the threat would endanger the two-week cease-fire reached on April 7. Mr. Trump had conditioned the pause on Iran fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil and gas in the Persian Gulf. Mr. Trump’s blockade threat came hours after Mr. Vance left the talks in Islamabad — the highest-level face-to-face encounter between U.S. and Iranian leaders since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — after telling reporters that Iran had “chosen not to accept our terms.” Mr. Ghalibaf said on social media that the United States had been “unable to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation” in this round of talks. Analysts said the issues dividing the two countries were so complex — and their differences so entrenched — that cinching a deal in a single round of talks had been highly unlikely. The key differences center on the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, frozen Iranian revenues held abroad, and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. Iran’s leaders have given no indication that they intend to relax their control of the waterway, which they view as a crucial bargaining chip, until a permanent peace is reached. In a defiant post on social media earlier on Sunday, Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said “the key” to the strait “is firmly in our hands.” Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Ghalibaf, the Iranian negotiator, appeared to rule out additional negotiations. Mr. Trump said in an interview on Sunday with Fox News that his threats had forced Iran “to the bargaining table and they haven’t left,” adding that he believed the United States would eventually get “everything” it wanted from Iran - NYT

Iran is using the existence of an unknown number of naval mines it laid in the Strait of Hormuz to force ships to use Iranian territorial waters to traverse the Strait, which enables Iran to shakedown these ships for fees while the ships are in Iranian territorial waters. Iran likely designed its threatening behavior and its shakedowns to disrupt the global economy, which Iran calculates will enable it to extract concessions from the United States. Iran warned merchant ships that mines could exist in a “hazardous area” that covers 1,394 sq km of the Strait, including the normal traffic separation scheme (shipping lanes) that ships use to transit the Strait. Ships seeking to avoid the Iranian-declared hazardous area must transit Iranian territorial waters.Iran then shakes down these merchant ships by extracting “protection fees.” These “protection” fees protect ships from Iranian attacks. This protection racket is illegal under maritime law. No state bordering a strait is permitted to restrict traffic or extract fees under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Unspecified US officials told the New York Times on April 11 that Iran laid its mines—of which there are reportedly fewer than a dozen, according to a previous March 23 report—” haphazardly,” which has prevented Iran from locating or removing them. These mines may or may not be in the 1,394 sq km “hazardous area.” The threat of mines also enables Iran to keep the price of oil and shipping insurance as high as possible for as long as possible without conducting attacks that would cause the ceasefire to collapse. Iran may calculate that the high price of oil and shipping insurance would cause the United States to cave on some of Iran’s demands. The United States is attempting to undermine Iran’s ability to use the threat of mines in the “hazardous area” by using US Navy destroyers to prove that the normal traffic separation scheme is safe and viable for traffic. Iran can only use the threat of mines to keep these costs high if the fear of mines persists. US President Donald Trump said on April 11 that the United States is “starting the process of clearing out” the strait. Arleigh Burke-Class destroyers USS Frank E. Peterson and USS Michael Murphy transited the Strait to clear the Strait of naval mines. US CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper said that the US Navy will share the route of safe passage with civilian shipping as soon as possible. Such a move would undermine Iran’s threats and badly damage its leverage in negotiations. The Qatari Transport Ministry announced later on April 11 that it will resume operations ”for all types of maritime vessels and ships” between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM local time on April 12 -ISW

Ukraine and Russia again accused each other of violating an Orthodox Easter truce, with both sides alleging thousands of attacks and other violations. With Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine well into its fifth year and the spring fighting season ramping up, Kyiv and Moscow had agreed to a 36-hour cease-fire coinciding with the Orthodox holiday, which began at midnight April 12. But both Russian and Ukrainian forces reported hundreds of incidents in the hours after the truce was supposed to take effect, on April 11. As of the morning of April 12, Ukraine’s military said it had tallied nearly 2,300 “violations” -- including “enemy assault activity, shelling, attack drone strikes.” There were no missile strikes, guided aerial bomb strikes, or attacks by kamikaze drones, the military said in a post to Facebook. Russia's Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of nearly 2,000 violations of its own over the previous 16 hours, including artillery or tank shelling , drone strikes, and "various types of munitions" dropped by drones - RFE/RL

From one war zone to another — in the span of days.

Today’s World Briefing: a rare Easter calm in Odesa after a brutal week of strikes… and why these “pauses” rarely last.

I’ve reported from two theatres of war in just one week - so you don’t have to.

👉 Upgrade to a World Briefing paid subscription for the full frontline analysis and what comes next.

An Air India flight to Vancouver turned back after nearly eight hours when the airline realized it had deployed a Boeing 777-200LR without clearance to enter Canada. The issue was discovered over Chinese airspace, forcing the aircraft to return to Delhi. Only Air India’s 777-300ER fleet is currently approved for Canada operations - Spot Next India

Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau turned Coachella into their own little love fest ... and they’re not even trying to hide it. The pop star and former Canadian Prime Minister were spotted getting cozy during a desert date night at Coachella ... cuddling up, holding hands and basically giving “locked in” energy all over the festival grounds. Katy even gave fans a peek, dropping an Instagram carousel captioned ... “heat checkin’ these chickens,” showing the couple snacking, strolling and staying glued to each other throughout the night. Katy kept it casual in a white tee and shorts with a hoodie tied around her waist, while Trudeau rocked jeans, a white tee and a backwards Montreal Alouettes cap. The two have been dating since Summer 2025, keeping things mostly low-key. Between the hand-holding, the cuddling and the festival date night vibes, it’s pretty clear these two are still going strong. Coachella might be about the music -- but Katy and Justin are out here making it about the romance - TMZ

The journals….

Tonight, a 24-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire is supposed to begin between Russia and Ukraine. But here’s my hot take: if Russia is bombing Odessa right up to the edge of that ceasefire, what does that tell you about how seriously they take peace? What kind of credible partner for negotiations attacks a city and its world port hours before a supposed truce?

And while all of this is happening, where is Washington? Donald Trump has at least twice threatened to withdraw weapons from Ukraine. JD Vance just came back from Hungary - not to confront Russia on its doorstep, but to accuse Ukraine of interfering in Hungarian and U.S. elections. You cannot make this up. The United States under Donald Trump is not a credible broker for peace in Ukraine. Full stop.

But here’s where it gets interesting - and hopeful. I also just returned from the Middle East. Two front lines in one week. And what I’m seeing is that a new architecture of diplomacy is emerging. Pakistan has stepped up as the lead interlocutor in Middle East peace talks. Gulf nations are at the table. These are players with real skin in the game - real stakes in what happens next. That’s what I argued on CNN today, and it’s what I believe deeply.

So here’s my argument for Ukraine: it’s time to look to Turkey. Ankara knows Russia. It knows Ukraine. It has massive interests in Black Sea security. It is a serious middle power with credibility on both sides. Let Turkey lead. Let the U.S. step back.

And one more thing - Ukraine has leverage it isn’t using. The same Iranian drones that are raining down on Ukraine are now threatening Gulf states like the UAE. Those countries need Ukrainian expertise and Ukrainian kit to defend themselves. That’s leverage. Ukraine should use it - pressing Gulf nations to pull the welcome mat from Putin’s oligarchs, restrict Russian tourism (at least temporarily), and make clear that business as usual with Moscow has a cost.

This is World Briefing Plus. I’ve been on two front lines this week so you don’t have to be. Let’s get into it. (World Briefing Plus is my subscriber-only video briefing - upgrade now to access the full deep dive into the forces shaping the week behind us, and the risks ahead.)

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🔥 World Briefing Hot Take

If there’s one defining pattern in this moment, it’s this: the Trump team can announce ceasefires - but it can’t seem to make any of them stick.

From the Thai-Cambodian border to the Middle East to Eastern Europe, the same script keeps playing out. A burst of brinkmanship. A dramatic declaration. A short-term pause. And then - almost immediately - the unraveling.

The Iran-Israel-U.S. ceasefire? Already riddled with contradictions, with strikes continuing in Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively constrained.

The Gaza track? Stalled, underfunded, and drifting without a credible path forward.

Ukraine? Reduced to symbolic, time-bound pauses like an Easter truce - gestures that signal fatigue more than progress.

Even where Washington claims success, the details tell a different story: unclear terms, competing interpretations, and allies increasingly out of sync.

This isn’t dealmaking. It’s crisis management by headline - ceasefires as temporary optics rather than durable outcomes.

And that’s what makes this moment so dangerous: not the absence of diplomacy, but the illusion of it.

News Briefs
As Vice President JD Vance was heading to Pakistan on Friday for peace talks with Iran, a senior Iranian official laid out new conditions for the negotiations, adding even more uncertainty about the durability of the cease-fire and whether the two sides could reach a long-term deal. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, wrote in a post on X that two requirements — a cease-fire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets — “must be fulfilled before negotiations begin.” Mr. Ghalibaf, one of the key Iranian figures overseeing the war, did not say what he meant by blocked assets, but Iranian funds overseas are often frozen as a result of sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western nations. For his part, President Trump said on social media that Iran was overplaying its hand in advance of the talks. “The Iranians don’t seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways,” he wrote on Truth Social, referring to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a request from Mr. Trump to scale back its assault on Lebanon, Israel on Friday kept up its airstrikes in the southern part of the country, aiming at targets it said were related to Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group. The continuing war in Lebanon has exposed significant differences between Mr. Netanyahu, who has said all Israel’s goals still haven’t been met, and Mr. Trump, who appears eager to make a deal with Iran to end the war. Under pressure from Mr. Trump and European leaders, Mr. Netanyahu said on Thursday his country would start talks with the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. But, hours later, he vowed to keep up strikes on the group, saying, “There is no cease-fire in Lebanon.” A senior Hezbollah official dismissed the idea of talks between Israel and Lebanon, saying that the Lebanese government did not speak for the group. One priority for Mr. Vance will be the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping passage for oil and gas that Iran has in effect blockaded since the war started. Even after the cease-fire was announced, marine traffic in the strait was at a trickle. Iran’s military signaled on Friday that it would maintain control of the passageway, saying in a statement carried by Iranian state media that it would “not give up our legitimate rights in any way” over the strait - NYT

• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has said he is “fed up” with the effect that Donald Trump’s actions in the Middle East are having on the British public, while appearing to draw a comparison between the US president and Vladimir Putin.

  Speaking to ITV’s Robert Peston on Thursday, the prime minister said: “I’m fed up with the fact that families across the country see their bills go up and down on energy, businesses’ bills go up and down on energy because of the actions of Putin or Trump across the world.” Starmer, who has been heavily criticised, and at times mocked, by Trump for not committing British forces to the war on Iran, also appeared to condemn Benjamin Netanyahu for Israel’s continued strikes on Lebanon, despite Iran calling for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire that was agreed on 7 April. “That should stop – that’s my strong view – and therefore, the question isn’t a technical one of whether it’s a breach of the agreement or not,” Starmer said. Starmer also said on ITV that although Britain did not have “access to all the details of the ceasefire”, he disagreed with the attacks on Lebanon: “Let me be really clear about it: they’re wrong.” - The Guardian

Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire during Orthodox Easter this weekend, marking a rare respite in the war that has dragged on for more than four years. In a statement late on Thursday, the Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin had ordered a pause in fighting that would begin at 4:00 p.m. on Saturday and last until the end of the day on Sunday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier called for an Easter ceasefire, though the Kremlin’s statement made no mention of that, mentioning only that it expected Ukraine “to follow the example of the Russian Federation.” Hours after Russia’s announcement, Zelensky said Ukraine would reciprocate the ceasefire this weekend. “People need an Easter free from threats and real progress toward peace, and Russia has a chance to avoid returning to hostilities after Easter,” he said. The Kremlin previously dismissed Zelensky’s call for an Easter ceasefire, claiming his proposal was vague and fell short of reaching a lasting peace. In 2025, Putin unilaterally declared an Easter ceasefire with Ukraine, which was marred by mutual accusations of violations. Zelensky at the time urged Moscow to extend the 30-hour truce into 30 days to pave the way for a broader ceasefire, a proposal that Putin ignored - Moscow Times

From the Strait of Hormuz to Odesa in under 48 hours — and the connection is impossible to ignore. Iran is now shaping both wars: confronting the U.S. and Israel in the Gulf while supplying the drones striking Ukraine again overnight. This is what a connected battlefield looks like.

👉 Watch my on-the-ground report above - filmed where these events are unfolding, not from an air-conditioned studio thousands of miles away.

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Viktor Orbán and his centre-right rival, Péter Magyar, have traded accusations of enlisting foreign interference in a high-stakes election that polls suggest could mark the end of the nationalist Hungarian prime minister’s 16 years in power. As the two leaders’ campaigns entered their final stages before this weekend’s vote, which is being watched as keenly in Brussels, Moscow and Washington as in Budapest, Orbán said on social media on Friday that his opponent would “stop at nothing to seize power”. Magyar and his Tisza party, which according to most polls holds a comfortable double-digit lead over Orbán’s far-right Fidesz, were “colluding” with foreign intelligence and threatening the ruling party’s supporters with violence, the prime minister alleged. Magyar – a former Fidesz loyalist who broke away from the ruling party two years ago, accusing it of corruption and propaganda – hit back, saying Orbán would be “removed by the same people … he has abandoned and betrayed: millions of Hungarians”. Magyar added in a social media post: “The ongoing election fraud carried out for months by Fidesz, along with criminal acts, intelligence operations, disinformation and fake news cannot change the fact that Tisza is going to win this election.” He urged voters “not to fall for provocation” and said Orbán, whose transformation of Hungary into a self-styled “illiberal democracy” has inspired far-right leaders and led to fierce clashes with the EU, must “accept the Hungarian people’s judgment with dignity”. The populist prime minister, 62, is the EU’s most Moscow-friendly leader, and recent allegations of Russian interference in the ballot, along with revelations that Orbán’s ministers shared confidential EU information with Moscow, have prompted outrage across the bloc - The Guardian

Russia’s FSB security service announced Thursday the arrest of a former Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) freelance reporter in the Zabaikalsky region on suspicion of treason. The man, a 65-year-old resident of Chita, is accused of funneling intelligence on critical infrastructure to Ukrainian special services. According to an FSB statement, the journalist provided information used to facilitate Ukrainian cyberattacks, which the agency claims “temporarily hindered regional authorities” in their official duties. A judge ordered him to be placed in pre-trial detention. If convicted of treason, he faces a maximum sentence of life in prison. While the FSB withheld the man’s name, local and independent media earlier identified him as Alexander Andreyev - Moscow Times

President Donald Trump’s Iran war threatens to cause “systemic” shortages of jet fuel in Europe within weeks. Reserves are running low, and the looming threat of the conflict deepening amid a fragile ceasefire is creating a concerning situation, ACI Europe, which represents EU airports, has warned, according to the Financial Times. The organization warned EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas about the partially shuttered Strait of Hormuz. “If the passage through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in any significant and stable way within the next three weeks, systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU,” the letter said. The incoming peak summer season has intensified concerns, it added. It comes as some Asian markets ration jet fuel as oil prices remain high, despite a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran. “A supply crunch would severely disrupt airport operations and air connectivity, with the risk of harsh economic impacts for the communities affected and for Europe in case of a systemic shortage of jet fuel,” the letter warned - The Daily Beast

• The war in the Middle East, home to some of the world’s largest air travel hubs, has upended the global aviation industry, driving carriers to new routes. British Airways said it would suspend some flights to the region through July, while opening more direct routes to Africa and India. Chinese airlines are also bypassing the Gulf’s hub-and-spoke ecosystem, adding thousands of direct flights to Europe. Meanwhile, fuel shortages caused by the conflict have forced airlines around the world to cut flights and raise prices. Still, some industry players eye an opportunity: Chinese and Indian airports are looking to position themselves as global hubs, threatening the Gulf’s future viability as an anchor for international travel - Semafor

• A Lufthansa cabin crew strike caused widespread flight cancellations Friday at Germany’s busiest airports, affecting more than 90,000 passengers. At Frankfurt Airport, the country’s main international gateway, roughly 580 flights were scrapped out of about 1,350 scheduled departures and arrivals. Munich Airport, the airline’s second major hub, saw around 400 flights affected. The one-day strike, called by the Independent Flight Attendants Organization, ran from shortly after midnight until 10 pm local time (2000 GMT). Cabin crew at Lufthansa’s regional subsidiary CityLine also joined the walkout at nine German airports. Independent Flight Attendants Organization chair Joachim Vazquez Buerger accused Lufthansa of failing to present a negotiable offer, saying the disruption “would have been avoidable.” He noted that the union had refrained from action during the peak Easter travel days but warned that Friday’s strike could still hit passengers heading home at the end of the holiday - Anadolu

An African AIDS charity co-founded by Britain’s Prince Harry said on Friday it had launched legal proceedings against him for “reputational harm”, after a bitter dispute about its management. Harry helped found the Sentebale charity in 2006 in honour of his late mother, Princess Diana. But he quit the institution last year amid a bitter governance dispute with its chairperson. "The charity seeks the court's intervention, protection and restitution following a coordinated adverse media campaign conducted since 25 March 2025 that has caused operational disruption and reputational harm to the charity, its leadership and its strategic partners," it said. Online court filings show the prince is a defendant alongside Mark Dyer, who was also previously a trustee of Sentebale, according to UK media reports. In August 2025, the UK’s Charity Commission pointed to “mismanagement” at the charity. But it found no evidence of “bullying” -- a charge that had been levelled at Harry by the organisation’s chairperson, Sophie Chandauka, in March 2025. The charity was launched to help young people with HIV and AIDS in Lesotho and later Botswana - AFP

The journals….